Krs4Lfe

It looks like over here, we'll peak around 57 degrees on Saturday, down to 51 on sunday, and then cooler for next week in time for the pattern change. Given that the 2/13 storm is likely to assist in initiating the pattern change, it may unfortunately be too early to expect any sort of snowstorm for the region. I believe the 12z GFS depicting a regionwide rainstorm is the likeliest option, given the torch weekend that we are heading towards. After that, it appears we have more cold air to work with, which would aid in producing snow for other storms that form past the mid-February range. Unfortunately, the background state naturally becomes warmer from this point on, and it will become harder for it snow (climatologically). So while we are heading towards a colder regime, it will take more than that to snow, and time continues to tick on. Regardless, the favorable pattern is just about 1 week away, it's a good pattern, but doesn't guarantee much of anything.

In terms of the forecast pattern change around 2/13, it still seems like we're moving into a colder/stormier regime. A few things to note however: 1. It doesn't take much to be colder and stormier than we are now, as we will have torched the first half of February anyway 2. Even with the spike in the +PNA and western ridging, combined with the east coast troughing, it appears that there's a risk for storms to crash into the west coast. While that appears to be the risk, it can also be a positive if the storms undercut the ridge and move through the Southwest 3. Persistent storminess (as indicated by above normal precip anomalies) look likely along the southern tier, and then just offshore in the Atlantic. That indicates storms riding through the south and then attempting to move up the coast, but low pressure over southeast Canada pushes that out to sea 4. In short, it appears that this pattern change will indeed happen, it will become colder than it is now, and there will be more storminess across CONUS. But too many variables come into play for seeing snow in this region. For now, I don't see those variables. I see colder and stormier, but not what is needed to drag this winter out of its abysmal state that it's in for much of CONUS. Still shocks me to see how aside from a 2 weeks in January, snow has been non-existent for much of the nation

In essence, pretty much everything you’d want to see for a projected pattern flip is on the table starting mid month. Big western ridging, heights building around Greenland, a backlog of storms in the North Atlantic, and an active STJ. Antecedent cold air will be greatly lacking at a minimum, if not completely missing at all. Snow cover across CONUS is even lower than 2020 and 2012, and once you get further in the season; an existing snowpack helps reinforce cold air even more. Unfortunately, we’re moving out of peak climo for snow soon, but storms can occur regardless. As much as this pattern looks great, and it can play out great as well, I’m not sure it will. The timing of cold air would have to be spot on. And we would need constant storminess in order to make up for what we haven’t had so far this winter. A tall order, this is. In a pattern like this, this is the best option to get it done. I’d wager that it’s unlikely at this point, but this would be the pattern to get it done, if it does happen.

Quiet on here tonight. Can’t say I’m surprised given the quiet weather pattern that has shown up. Still remarkable at how inactive this winter has been for the whole nation. December was historically inactive, January had a snow blitz for the first 3 weeks, and then everything shut off for the past week. Even The Weather Channel’s winter storm tracker has only had 10 storms since November! February looks to remain almost historically warm and inactive over the next 10 days, outside of Rockies and points to the west coast. And even then, most places outside very high elevations won’t be cold enough for snow.

An encouraging sign to see is that it appears the pattern change is holding serve through time. This week, the pattern change has been indicated for around 2/13 or so, and so far, that look has held. Everything we’d want to see in a pattern change is there. Big spike in +PNA with a large western ridge, an eastern trough that is centered around Ohio River Valley and areas just eastward, heights building south of Greenland, and a funneling of cold air from the Hudson Bay Area (as indicated by blues extending from there down through the east coast). Does this mean that the pattern will produce? No. If anything, December 2022 taught us that, and for the NYC area, January 2024 just gave us a second lesson on that. But, it would be highly improbable that winter weather stays clear from the area during this pattern change. After all, 12/2022, and 1/2024 still had winter weather for our neighbors in this region, although NYC seems to be in a sort of a snow hole of sorts. In short, things are looking better for the area. Doesn’t mean they’ll produce, but with this pattern? It would be nearly impossible to see *nothing*.

The lack of winter weather across CONUS continues to amaze me. Last year, arguably one of the worst if not *the* worst for snow regionwide, other parts of the nation were doing well. In particular, from the west coast to the upper Midwest. Even in 2020, most of the northern tier was doing better. Outside of 3 weeks in January, our PAC dominated winter has led to very little snow and even smaller snowpack/ sustained cold temperatures across the nation. Aside from a few areas, this ranks even lower than 202, 2012, 2023 with nationwide snow averages. The PAC jet in December did us all in for that month, and it appears the next 2 weeks will be rather quiet nationwide. Hard pressed to find such little winter activity this winter across the nation. Take this info as you will….

Well that's a decent look for a few reasons. Let's break down the positives 1. Jet streaming across the pacific ends up breaking off, with storminess/moisture moving through north Mexico 2. That storminess takes on a STJ look, with storminess accompanying that jet streak across the south and mid-atlantic, which will obviously lead to an active weather pattern of some sorts 3. Ridging over west coast (+PNA) must lead to a trough on the downside of that, which could get caught up in the jet streak 4. There's some low pressure around Newfoundland, and high pressure ridging south of Greenland, all of which could help lead to a "blockier" scenario Let's break down the negatives 1. The western ridge isn't in the most ideal position, with the highest anomalies being just offshore the west coast 2. High pressure isn't anchored in southeast Canada, which is arguably the best spot to reinforce cold air to meet up with this stormy look 3. Due to the ridge axis being right off the west coast, the trough would likely be over central US, giving a chance for heights to rise along east coast. That would help us avoid suppression, but *could* lead to some inland/coastal huggers if this look were to verify

It appears that could display cold air downwards from where it's being bottle up right now (Alaska, as they're having a record good winter for those parts.) Now, I don't believe it would necessarily lead to most of us posters reaching average snowfall for this winter, it can definitely lead to increased storminess. Those oranges showing up near south Greenland indicate there might be some north atlantic blocking as well, which could finally slow down our storms (our storms have been pretty quick moving this winter). Those reds showing up over east Asia and Russia would definitely displace cold temperatures. It looks like that cold air will be displaced over Europe (as displayed by the blues over the continent), but there's a chance some of that from the arctic sneaks down onto CONUS as well. Only potential issue with this is that it could take a little while for the cold air to bleed east, as indicated by the blues in the west, but a still present Southeast ridge