Krs4Lfe

If this threat continues, then maybe we can get some play by play tomorrow through Friday. Haven’t done any of that since the mid February 2024 region wide SECS. That was also the last winter storm warning in NYC. 3-6” in immediate NYC but a general 6-8+ regionwide. And before that, the last winter storm warning in NYC was for the 8-12” near blizzard on 1/29/22. Needless to say, it’s been a while since NYC has had a winter storm warning and we’ve been able to some play by play.

Yeah that deep trough/cold anomalies over Alaska and west Canada will naturally lead to a rise in heights over the east and lead to warmth over the east. That being said, mid january is our coldest time of the year, so a few degrees above normal wouldn't preclude a properly timed snow event

There are some signs that the cold air bottled up in Alaska and Canada might surge southward in 2 weeks time, which is the first week of January. That would likely be the return of winter for most of the country. Astonishing how warm it's been since mid month for most of CONUS. Spring-Summer like Christmas for most. January 2024 and January 2022 had an epic return to winter after a very warm december. Usually storminess accompanies the arctic cold plunges. Let's hope that's the case this time

Yeah we don't want the low moving too far to our north. Still a good hit for the guys up north, but verbatim it's mainly a rainstorm down here. I think the GFS and Euro are likely too far south, but the Icon is probably as far north as solutions can possibly go.

Almost like a March-like storm. Inland and elevation helps, while most areas have minimal accumulation. Makes you wonder what 3 degrees colder would have produced this morning

I would still rather take my chances with a strong HP block that might shred the system as opposed to an amplified low that might move north of NYC (like the last Icon model showed). I’ll take my chances with shredders like last winter because it’s too cold as opposed to 2023 or 2024 winters where it was too warm and we got rain from almost every system

Considering NWS was expecting 1 inch of accumulation, this will be impossible as temps are warming up already. Quite the fail by most models that expected any form of accumulation in NYC. I think they don’t truly factor in the urban heat island to the fullest extent. Always have to tack on a few extra degrees which naturally cuts down totals. Marginal events like these probably would have produced a few inches a few decades ago but now it’s too warm. We need the big ones for serious accumulation

Yeah some light white rain here in Queens. Won’t be surprised if there’s no accumulation when all is said and done

I haven’t seen any reports of overperforming coming out of PA where it’s currently snowing so I think the models might be onto something with the marginal temps and drier air

Verbatim Thats a pretty quick mover . In and out in about 8 hours. Seems like the further south it goes, it becomes a bit more sheared out and a bit quicker moving as well

Fortunately, it seems that the big warmup coming around Christmas and through new years was overestimated by the models. It looks like most of the northeast and mid Atlantic will remain with near normal temperatures and New England will remain a bit colder than normal. That being said the warmth during Christmas week across the country is literally like the inverse of the Arctic air outbreak during Christmas 2022. But either way, this is almost just as impressive with temperatures in the 80s all the way up to Nebraska today. Spring to summer like weather this week for much of the heartland and the south. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear that will be reaching us during this last week of December. Hopefully all the record cold air bottled up in Canada in Alaska can spill down next month across the country and bring some renewed snowfall chances. Because aside from our snowfall chances here in the northeast, much of the country will remain warm and dry for the foreseeable future.

Well that was the difference between 1-2” and nothing. NYC in mid 30s right now, so shouldn’t expect anything except some white rain maybe. Marginal events like this would have likely worked in the past for a few inches. Not anymore

Maybe some light rain but other than that, nothing else. Probably a wet Dusting in NYC. QPF has been a bit bullish but I believe NWS is rightfully unimpressed

Should be nice to look at as it falls but I would imagine it will all melt within a day or so. North and west of NYC might have enough to stick around until Christmas but NYC barely sticks even on a colder day Hopefully NYC can squeeze out one inch and get to the magic 4” mark for December

They are probably favoring in the white rain due to warmer temperatures at the onset, which will lead to minimal accumulation in the urban zones of the tri state area. Either way, that should make for a solid 1-3” further inland

I'd assume the weeklies respond to the teleconnections that it forecasts. So when the teleconnections remain stuck in a moderate -PNA stage as opposed to approaching +PNA territory, that allows the weeklies to show a warm January, as they are currently showing at the moment. Still will likely require a big change in the pacific in order to force that omega ridge out of the Central US. As long as that persists (which has been the past week), most of the northeast (outside of northern new england) will struggle to remain cold.

Yeah I was surprised how warm it felt this morning, felt like Spring compared to the cold we've had recently. Webb seems to think we're in for a warm winter unless the pacific has a big shake up.

As per my previous posts, there are legitimate reasons why I believe this winter will not be conducive for snowfall. Doesn't mean "winter is over" or anything like that. But there are reasons as to why I believe that this winter might not be a good one, along with some thoughts on how the pattern can change. In the 2025-2026 ENSO page, I outlined those thoughts last night.

To be fair, December 2021 in December 2023 we’re quite warm and mild for much of the country which was not similar to this month because this month featured colder and sometimes well colder than average temperatures for the eastern third of the US and the northern tier. And of course there were several snow events as well, which is also unlike December 2021 and December 2023. January 20 22 and January 20 24 got off to a rather stormy star, however remain generally stormy and colder for most of the country (although the impact on our snow totals that season is debatable), there was still plenty of cold air and active weather traversing CONUS. My only point in saying this is that the pattern can truly flip on a dime, like it did in those two instances. However, much of the warm and mild conditions during December 2023 in December 2021, I believe, was due to a jet extension which flooded the country with mild Pacific air. This month, there is an omega Ridge over the central US, which might make the pattern flip a bit more delayed and a bit trickier because it will require whole scale changes in the pacific in order to knock that ridge down and allow some storms and cold air to come back across the US. That being said, unlike December 2021 in December 2023, our source region (Canada) remains quite cold and snowy, so anytime the polar vortex becomes a bit disturbed or a ridge forms over the Arctic, it should force the cold air from Canada down into the US. So maybe we will see a big pattern change like January 2022 in January 2024 hopefully

I would assume it would have to be moving pretty quickly in order for accumulations to be that low ?

Well I think we’re in a very sensitive spot. If it shifts too far north then it’s just rain showers. If it shifts too far south then it’ll probably get shredded even more. Not sure the cards are there for us for this one

I’ll be honest, maybe it’s just the pessimistic side of me, but I have 0 confidence in much snow at all this winter. After so many bad winters, I find it plausible that we can have almost a total shutout. I see a strengthening PV coming up after new years, and a -NAO block but no help on pacific side. Long range looks like hot garbage to me, at a time where we are prime for our most snow. Looks terrible

Definitely with the low heading north of the area. Would be white rain to start And then dry slot . And considering central park is notorious for under measurement, it would be like nothing ever fell

That winter will always live in infamy here in NYC. Cold December, but no snow, and then a torch for rest of the season, with only like 3" of snow in February and a dusting in March. Northern new england through great lakes and out west had a great season though. Lots of record snows across Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and out west.

The warmth over Central US is very impressive, akin to the very warm Christmas we had here in December 2014 and December 2015. This is one of the few times where you would want a pacific jet extension to force storms into the west, which will roll the ridge through the east US and then maybe we can reset from there. But until that omega ridge subsides over Central US, CONUS is almost completely void of cold and snow. Horrendous