09-10 analogy

Storms seem to be percolating in NVA (e.g. Leesburg) even as they're choking off in C MD.

It'll be interesting to see if the powerful storms moving thru MOCO/NVA can lay down any boundaries that may goose (or perpetuate) the storms lining up on I-66 in the Front Royals area, so that (yes, MBY) NW DC can get in on some good stuff a bit later.

Oh, yeah, vehicles. They've got sirens too. I'm so dense sometimes.

You have severe weather sirens out there? I usually associate that with places like Oklahoma or Kansas. Of course I've never lived in a semi-rural area ... correct me if I'm wrong if you don't ... so maybe that's de rigueur in most places. I remember driving through S/C Oklahoma once, through the town of Frederick. On the SW side of town, every other telephone pole, it seemed, had a speaker. I assume it was for the sirens and that they were located there to warn of storms/tornadoes approaching from the SW. But that's just supposition on my part; maybe there were there just to play selections from a Rogers and Hammerstein musical on Cadillac Day, for all I know. Anyway, the sight of those sirens made me think of tiny vulnerable towns in the Great Plains, which could be suddenly eradicated from existence by a Greensburg/Udall type event, and these little sirens were a brave way of trying to mitigate existential (and usually nighttime) destruction.

Clear as a bell directly overhead but I see some cumulus congestus (or something akin) off to the N/W. Must be a hell of a cap in place. And, yeah, muggy and uncomfortable. Seems like today could go either way: little to nothing in the immediate area, or a solid severe wx event? Just read the afternoon AFD. Outflow boundaries, baby! Spawn those storms like mosquito larvae in a swamp.

Ryan O'Hearn channeling his inner Steve Pearce this weekend ... and for that matter, all year. Pearce seemed to always get the big hits in 2014. This team is definitely the best O's team since 2014. Picking up Miller at the deadline gave the O's that year three horses in the pen, along with O'Day and Zach; that bullpen was nearly untouchable down the stretch, IIRC. I'd like to see this year's O's get another powerhouse reliever to go with Bautista and, especially, Cano, who I worry will get overworked. (And, no, unfortunately I don't think Fujinami is the second coming of A. Miller.)

The hell with Game of Thrones ... Felix is the real "Mountain."

I'm all in favor of bolstering the rotation but not at the expense of too much young talent. And the ones I'd be in favor of trading (e.g., Cowser and Stowers) have struggled so far and probably wouldn't get much back that's any better than what we have. (I was surprised to see that Wells is leading the league in WHIP, which is important given how many HRs he gives up.) I can't see Elias parting with Holliday, for instance. Ohtani would be a lot of fun, but he's a rental who's not going to sign in Baltimore for the long term. That said, this is a very balanced lineup. According to Baseball Reference, six of the O's nine starters have OPSs over .800. That's counting Hicks, but Mullins cannot get back too soon since I don't trust a 33-year-old with a lifetime 97 OPS+

On the bright side, Hyde saved Yennier and the Mountain for the balance of the series.

I think grod was overthrowing in the first inning

Santander and Hays have really stepped up this year. For all the hype about Adley and Gunner, the two "leftovers" have been the heart of this offense.

Very cool! Looks like a younger version of my daughter when she was Timon in the Lion King in eighth grade. She had some real talent and charisma, more than I did when I acted some, but she never really liked acting that much (or dance, either, like her mom), and they've got to be allowed to do their own thing. Here's to many more theatrical triumphs by your daughter!

Here in up nw ... probably. Kinda sad.

Lotta lightning off to the N&W. According to Ventusky, there's a bit of a surface low (29.9) reflection NW of Germantown, but I don't really see it on the SPC Mesoanalysis. Anyway, DC is now severe warned: Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC013-059-142230- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0135.230714T2138Z-230714T2230Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 538 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Northern Arlington County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 630 PM EDT. * At 538 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over American Legion Bridge, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Arlington, Rockville, Bethesda, Bowie, Olney, College Park, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Beltsville, Forestville, Falls Church, Largo, Coral Hills, Bladensburg, Pimmit Hills, Mclean, Fedex Field, Fort Totten, Rosslyn and University of Maryland. ETA: Ugh. Showers out ahead of the storm. Don't like that.

Late Friday night, December 18, 2009. Around 10 or so. With an inch or so on the ground, and a LOT more on the way (little did I know then, given the whole winter, how much that would be), I walked into Glover-Archibald Park in NW DC. Had Tom Waits on my headphones (this was before I-Phones, or at least before I had one.). On a slight ridge 100 or so feet a way, six or seven deer were looking at me. I looked back. We stayed there more or less motionless -- I wasn't that cold and, evidently, neither were the deer -- as the snow fell and began to pick up in intensity. I'm far from the most spiritual guy in the world, but that was a truly Zen moment I'll never forget. I've posted this several times here, and for that I apologize, but really ... it was just a moment of perfect peace in a (sometimes) crazy world. But, hell, there are a bunch of memories wound up in snowstorms: 1983, the first one I got drunk in; 1987, Veterans Day, walking to meet a buddy at a bar downtown while looking at people with faces of pure shock that something like that could be happening at that time of year; 1996, planning our wedding with my girlfriend (that wouldn't happen for some years afterwards) at a bar in Takoma Park; 2010 #2 (digging a snow trench in our yard so big my 6 year old daughter and I could both easily fit in); 2016 (that Saturday afternoon, true blizzard conditions, where visibility in Friendship Heights couldn't have been much more than a couple hundred yards and the snow and wind were like being in a great big snow globe shaken by some Titan out of Greek mythology).

Pretty gusty outflow coming through now. Maybe 30-35 MPH or so. Could go for a quick drenching and some T&L but the 2"/hour stuff I'll pass on. I have better things to do this afternoon than have a dance with my watervac down in the basement.

"Voltage": good way to refer to lightning. Can I steal it?

Nice to know even the best in the business are still wx nerds at the core. I like the juxtaposition of "hurricane operations" with ALL the staff looking out the window at what was probably the definitive "garden-variety" thunderstorm. Thankfully there were no category 5s crawling up the Eastern Seaboard at the time. Actually, thinking about it, that would make an even better picture: Hurricane Iago, still at Cat 4 strength, ravaging the Bay, and all the mets are looking out the window at it rather than at their workstations.

I'm hearing it up here.

Happy hunting! And happy belated birthday. A side benefit chasing out there at least for me, is the scenery. Some might say “lack of” but that very starkness appeals to me.

Run through it, if it's something benign! One of my fondest memories is my 30th birthday, my girlfriend (now my wife) and I went to Death Valley on August 21 (my birthday) when it was 122 in the shade at the Furnace Creek Visitor Center. Many dust devils. I pulled over to the side of the road and ran out into one and danced around. My gf thought I was crazy, which I was and am, but it's one of those things I'll never forget. Tried to get her to do it with me but she wouldn't. After we were married a few years later, I said I would have proposed to her while in the middle of a dust devil in Death Valley but I don't think she bought that.

Looks to me that cell is slightly turning right and has a notch, if the new and improved LWX radar is anything to go by. Meanwhile, it's lighting up in general to DC's west so I'm hoping I'll at least see a little something.

FWIW, SPC Mesoanalysis has a glob of supercell composite of 4 right over the I-95 corridor: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# ETA: I guess the link doesn't go to the preferred option. Hmm... cell SW of Warrenton headed right into it.

I can sweat, too. This is as hot as any day this year so far ... at least for me. Walked to the store to stock up for the holiday, came back carrying two large bags, halfway home, it was like I'd spent the weekend inside Niagara Falls. Should have driven ....

When did that happen last, in your opinion? I know it's a totally subjective question. Please don't say "never." Offhand, I don't have a clue what the BRN or low-level shear was for the derecho; I know CAPE (j/kg-1) values were something ungodly, like 5500.