SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Its going to be very hard to ever fully control this thing given the level of transmission occurring under near lockdown. We are gonna really have to dial in the test, trace, isolate strategy, and quick.
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Wow baby pigeons, never thought about that. Where are the babies?
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Yeah I guess for whatever reason it was one the preferred models, seems like this kind of modeling has a long way to go.
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DC recorded 19 deaths today which I believe is its highest single day total and also reporting less ICU beds available. It seems like IHME model was way out to lunch on saying DC had already peaked back in early April.
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It almost certainly was IMO. A woman who traveled from DC to Italy in early February came back with classic symptoms had a positive antibody test. Given the amount of international travel that occurs to/from our region it was probably spreading here by early to mid February if not earlier.
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here’s the h1n1 comparison updated
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I don’t think it’s spreading even close to fast enough to achieve herd immunity in a few months anywhere in the US. I think cuomo said R0 was less than 1 in nyc currently. If they just opened back up to business as usual, yes, but with social distancing, no.
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Jeez, what’s up with PA? 294 deaths today and 200 yesterday, is that a reporting backlog or is their outbreak really that bad?
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Yeah, hospitalizations and ICUs went up today
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interesting, could be relevant for schools if this result pans out
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It's not the policies, it's the epidemic. If we didn't institute stay at homes pretty much everywhere would've been NYC and we'd be in just as bad of an economic hole, if not worse.
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Soon when things are open I think older or susceptible people will still be encouraged to stay home. They will likely do this on their own and probably still only go out for essentials. The harder decision will be once more things are open and their families have been out and about and they have to decide whether or not to go visit the grandkids.
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Just took a look. The only thing I wondered about is he says we have to stop making policy decisions based on hypotheticals. Seems to me like the 60,000 deaths the model was predicting are no longer hypothetical.
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Anyone know what’s up with Brazil? They appear to be on a bad trajectory. Are they on lockdown?
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They have not had the longest stay at home, I believe that was California.
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Yeah but with NY’s continued lower numbers even with NJ’s increase we’ll almost certainly be lower than last Tuesday, so the downward trend continues.
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Well apparently NJ’s lower numbers this weekend were indeed lack of weekend reporting, they are announcing almost 400 new deaths today.
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This makes sense. For all the hullabaloo about how bad the models were it looks like they’ll be pretty accurate.
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Makes sense, I’d be interested to know how old the average adult made it to.
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Yeah I know humanity has registered pandemics, but this one is largely killing people who would’ve otherwise been dead in the year 1,000. How long did people live back then, 50?
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Yeah I’m really wondering about the fall now. I teach in a school with 1,500 ish students total plus well over 100 staff. I wonder if we’ll be going to back to business as usual in the fall.
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Yeah I have a 1 and 4 year old and no playgrounds, friends, cousins, etc really limits what we can do on a day to day basis.
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A very interesting question indeed. Had this spread in the year 1,000 would they even have noticed? I never thought about that. My guess is they wouldn’t have noticed given the multitude of other, worse health issues they had to deal with.
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This makes sense to me. I saw one estimate from Bowser’s office that up to 20% of currently closed businesses in DC may not return, that’s a huge hit not just to those businesses but to the city’s revenue stream and everything that depends on it.
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There is an interesting debate to be had about putting dollar values on human life. When cuomo says “you can’t put a value on life”, that’s just not true. We do all the time. One argument I’ve heard along these lines is if we value human life infinitely why isn’t the speed limit 15 mph on all roads? You could pretty much eliminate all traffic fatalities (30-40k per year). The price of those 30-40k lives is the convenience and economic benefits of driving fast.
