SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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I agree with this. It’s hard to imagine that beaches kept at a reasonable capacity would be any worse than the hiking trails, bike trails, etc, which all have been packed lately.
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Well, if the outbreak was increasing it would mean that down the road the hospitalizations would go up. Of course it’s debatable as to whether or not we are testing enough to know which way the outbreak is going. In the future when we theoretically get this under control and have constant widespread testing the positive case numbers will be very important.
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They are also testing everyone that needs to be admitted to a hospital for any reason as well. I know because I have a family member getting surgery today and she had to be tested so they could put her in the non covid part of the hospital.
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Maybe, maybe not. Depends on how much our mitigation is working and how many people we test daily.
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If the testing is constant yes you would see the % increase. My only point was that the testing wasn’t constant, we got 6,600 results back which presumably means we tested a lot more people somewhat recently. The % of positives was still over 25%.
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% positive shouldn’t rise!!!! # of positives should rise!!!
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I haven’t been talking about that all, I’m talking about the % positive.
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lol that’s been my point all along
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Correct, as their testing ramped up their % positive went down, hopefully ours will do the same.
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Agree. I made this error about a week ago.
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Hmmm, not sure about that. NYC and NJ saw their % positives drop considerably over time. I would think that the more our mitigation efforts work the lower it would go.
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I’m not really assuming anything. If the % positive dropped as the # of tests went up it would appear to be less widespread. If it remains constant it’s more widespread.
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I think everyone gets the lag, but the idea still stands that the more tests you give, if the outbreak wasn’t very widespread, you’d see the % positive come down.
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Yes, but as you test more and more people if you keep finding the same % positive that’s not good. If the outbreak is slowing as you test more people the % positive should decrease.
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Maryland got over 6,600 test results yesterday and still a 26% positive rate, 1730 new cases. Not good. Need that positive rate to come way down to think the outbreak is slowing.
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Basically what you said. Nothing has changed since the beginning. The goal was always to reduce deaths and serious illnesses and prevent the healthcare system from being overtaxed.
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There were never any shifting goal posts, the only things that shifted were the talking points on the propaganda shows (Fox).
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interesting thread
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Hmmm that’s one way to look at it lol. The present is pretty good compared to most of history IMO. I’m glad I was born when and where I was.
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Yeah I understand that, I just don’t understand what point you’re trying to make.
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What do you mean by that?
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Its going to be very hard to ever fully control this thing given the level of transmission occurring under near lockdown. We are gonna really have to dial in the test, trace, isolate strategy, and quick.
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Wow baby pigeons, never thought about that. Where are the babies?
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Yeah I guess for whatever reason it was one the preferred models, seems like this kind of modeling has a long way to go.
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DC recorded 19 deaths today which I believe is its highest single day total and also reporting less ICU beds available. It seems like IHME model was way out to lunch on saying DC had already peaked back in early April.
