EPS snow mean looks better at 18z compared to 12z for the Tuesday/wed deal.
Edit: to be specific the 24 hour snow map centered at 144 hours is 2-4 for the whole area as opposed to 12z when there was a stripe of 1-2 over dc and immediate area. Also the 4-6 line bumped south closer to the PA/MD border.
The only problem with having a winter storm thread when there is no threat is i keep clicking on it excited to see new posts thinking there is a new threat....
GFS at 120 has a northern stream piece of energy diving down and the southern stream vort slightly more consolidated. I wonder if we could get some kind of phase or partial phase this run.
Edit: Meh, next few panels it misses the connection
12z ICON is also a miss wide right with the 28th threat. If this threat is going to have any legs I would think it would have to come back on modeling by 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow.
Wow what a disaster a lot of these threads are becoming. Crazy considering a good percentage of the forum experienced an 8-12 inch powder dump already. I guess people were really believing a KU pattern was coming. I've found its best to NEVER believe what the weeklies or the end of the GEFS/EPS runs are showing. That stuff changes on a dime.
FV3 would be excellent, sustained winds of 20 knots for much of the area, while not officially a blizzard it would make for significant blowing and drifting.
But that loser from PA already said winter is cancelled, so it’s impossible.
In all seriousness this looks like our next window and it should be more than cold enough. Nice to see the GEFS develops a low much further south than the op.