SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Yeah it’s not a bad run considering it’s kind of just an arctic front, and not a real storm. If I get 1.5 inches I’ll be happy.
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It doesn't look that much worse than 6z to me...
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GFS/FV3 are surprisingly cold....looks good for almost all snow even down to DC.
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6z Euro cuts back again. Now looks to be in line with other models with coating to 2 inches for most of the immediate DC area.
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Thanks for the map. I guess it’s really gonna be all about the boundary layer. Seems like most models agree on 0.25-0.5 QPF. If we can get a quick flip we can score 3-5, if it’s 37 degrees with white rain at 00z wed we’re in trouble.
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Overall the run doesn’t look that different to me, so not sure why the snowmap looks so different. Did it cut back QPF or is it because of temps?
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I thought there was one in 2015 that started out warm but gave us 6 inches...I could be wrong though.
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Yeah it can definitely happen, but these rain to snow transitions have broken both ways for us in recent years. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get 4-5 inches or if we bust and get less than an inch.
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My main concern with this event, as others have mentioned, is surface temps. These are the euro temps for 00z Wednesday. By this point most of our QPF has fallen and DC has about 0.1 left.
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18z euro looks about the same, maybe a touch drier but just noise methinks.
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Euro also brings some light snow through Wednesday afternoon, freshen up the pack before the temps really drop Wednesday night.
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What I like about the euro too is that between 00z and 06z Wednesday we receive 0.1+ of QPF, whereas the GFS basically shuts it off right at 0z.
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Wow looks like the FV3, we’re back in business baby! Put the cutlery away.
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well the euro is definitely better than 6z
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It gets it done differently than those good euro runs from the last few days which had the precip hanging around until Wednesday am. This is all a quick hitter Tuesday afternoon/evening. It would be an excellent outcome.
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Wow really good run of FV3, models going different directions, really hope it’s right.
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Yeah it looks like the bulk of the precip falls between 18z (temps 37-38) and 00z (temps 34-35) in DC with 850s <0.
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12z GFS and 6z FV3 still look decent. FV3 gives 3-4 inches areawide. Wonder if maybe the euro windshield wipes back a bit.
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Don’t look at the 06z euro. It’s very ugly. Looks like a “game over” run for this threat.
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Falls after the temps are good?
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If it’s any comfort it still completely skunks Boston and SNE. DC gets more on this map than nyc and Boston.
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Because its likely to bust Yeah, it’s just kind weird looking though. The SV snowmaps seem a little shadier than weatherbell.
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Not sure why the snowmap is so fragmented.
