JenkinsJinkies

https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/18zaufp/oc_seasonal_snowfall_anomaly_map_of_the_us/

Miller B's don't deliver for us on the other side of the fall line.

I think you spoke too soon.

You know the last time we got big snow was around the January 20th timeframe.

If this verifies BWI will get double the snow as DCA. Usually if one busts the other busts too.

I saw the future cast radar on WBAL, it reminds me of those troll systems from 2012-2013. They'd start out as snow, accumulate, look picturesque, warm air bleeds in, snow turns to rain, rain melts all the snow away.

That was nearly 60 years ago though, the climate has warmed since then

I'm guessing that's why Feb 2010 was a 1 in 150 year event.

We're within 3 days, if something will muck it up there's not much time left for it to show in the models.

Looks like my joke about orthodox christmas might end up becoming real.

DCA gets trolled again

Nope https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXlVjW06MDk

The average American adult reads at a 6th grade level.

Maybe since it's legal in my state I should start a weed index.

And since we're not in a Nina it won't get the Mid Atlantic staple walk back with precip reduced by 75%.

12th is too soon, temps are still above normal. (Not a torch though, 40s)

The Jan 13 warmup got pulled back on GFS. Now it's in the upper 40s for us instead of yesterday's run showing us pushing 60. This is why we can't go on thermals more than 10 days out, it can change this fast. But still, look how far into Canada the freeze line is.

Perhaps it could still be the luck thing (solely for this year though, not the whole 7 year period). I mean there is a nonzero chance of all the good stuff missing by sheer happenstance.

46 is not almost 70.

So if this year does somehow end up being a repeat of last year how will that factor into your predictions based on when your area gets its first inch of snow. (Like you said that if you get to Dec 10 and there hasn't been an inch recorded at your location the odds of a blockbuster winter begin to drop and that if you reach late Dec without receiving an inch then it'll most likely be a non-winter) Because this year you got your first accumulation (4 inches) right around the time your correlated blockbuster odds decrease and now you're up to 6 inches after some snow you got about a week later. In fact when the futility thread got bumped last year you pointed out that the top 5 years listed were also the ones where your area received no snow at all by New Year's.

Hunga Tonga was mostly water vapor, Pinatubo was mostly ash. Apples to oranges.

CWG hasn't given up yet https://archive.is/6Gvcv

It's gonna be a Nina following a Nino, so expect a day or two of 70+ in January and an entire week of 70s straddling Presidents Day. See also 2016-2017.

That's usually why they don't report on the lack of snow until it's around Jan 20 and there's been no snow or significantly below average snow.

According to CWG the prime time for snow in the beltway area is between MLK day and President's day.