Powerball

The latest Hi-Res models aren't very bullish on it surviving to DFW, but the conditions are certainly there to keep it going.

Insane amount of lightning with the storms across TX and OK. Nearly 1,800 strikes per minute.

Can kind of see what looks like a mesolow or MCV developing in eastern Collin County.

"Untapped" isn't the word I would use. It was impacted by a severe warned cell earlier. That said, although things have stabilized at the surface, there's still plenty of elevated instability as mid-level lapse rates continue to steepen.

It looks like the storms SE of Dallas may be morphing into what could become a MCS.

Official high at DFW was 92*F, by far the hottest day of the year.

HRRR's sounding still shows just a wee bit of capping in place. Combined with the less than impressive low level flow may be why the storms haven't been as robust as they could be (so far) and seem to be getting messy. This may end up sparing the heart of DFW from anything too severe. A ton of hail reports though (all 2" or less).

Getting pea-sized hail.

The sky here looks really nasty now. Lightning's picking up and hearing cracks of thunder. Seems a cell is bubbling up just to the SW of me.

If I'm not mistaken, this would be the first 2021 tornado report in FWD's CWA.

Yeah, it's insane how quickly the sky conditions changed.

livecode json SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Oklahoma North-central Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense supercells are expected to initiate along the dryline in north-central Texas and the surface front in southeast Oklahoma by about 6 PM CDT. Very large hail will be the primary initial threat, but tornadoes and significant severe winds will be possible as well. Supercells should grow upscale into one or more clusters with an increasing risk of damaging winds this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northeast of Muskogee OK to 40 miles southwest of Waco TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...WW 129...WW 130...WW 131...WW 132... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Grams

Indeed. But that's one hell of a sounding for monster-sized hail and collapsing storms.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 350 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021 TORNADO WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS TXC027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-139-143-147-181-193-213- 217-221-223-231-251-257-277-281-309-333-349-367-379-397-425-439- 467-497-040400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0133.210503T2050Z-210504T0400Z/ TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DELTA DENTON ELLIS ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS MCLENNAN MILLS NAVARRO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE $$ ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 350 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021 TORNADO WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-061-063-069-077-079-085-091-095- 099-101-107-111-121-123-127-133-135-040400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0133.210503T2050Z-210504T0400Z/ OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MARSHALL MCINTOSH MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH $$

19z special sounding for FWD:

You can now start to see what looks to be gravity waves on the visible satellite, and the CU field increasing. This is all on the nose of the 700mb jet streak. Should start seeing action rev up soon.

5000 J/KG MUCAPE popping up on the SPC mesoanalysis page now. Also, LIs of -12

As of 3pm, for the first time this year, DFW has hit 90*F.

000 FXUS64 KFWD 031832 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 132 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ Severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible late this afternoon into tonight. All North and Central Texas residents need to stay weather aware today given the possibility of significant severe weather. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving any weather alerts, and have a plan in case you are in the path of hazardous weather. A rapid evolution of today and tonight`s forecast has taken place within the last 24 hours. Minor changes in the timing of the front and rapid moisture return have contributed to an increasing potential for significant severe weather starting late this afternoon. A cold front is now draped northeast to southwest from near Bowie to Graham, slowly advancing to the southeast. Meanwhile, dew points throughout the region have surged into the lower 70s ahead of the front. At the moment, a stout capping inversion is keeping convection from developing. This, however, is expected to change in the next few hours. Radiational heating will continue ahead of the front, leading to greater destabilization across the region. CAMs continue to favor an area around Stephenville for initial thunderstorm development, which coincides with recent RAP analysis of a developing area of greater moisture convergence. An incoming shortwave, coupled with the surface front and a pseudo-dryline will come together to produce explosive thunderstorm development initially to the west/southwest of the DFW Metroplex. Storms will then migrate eastward through North Texas. Steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to CAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg which would translate to significantly large hail. Deep layer shear and a strong southerly low-level flow will also increase the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes. The overall tornado potential will depend on the evolution of the storms across North Texas. If storms are able to remain discrete, a greater tornado potential may develop in areas east of I-35 and north of I-30. An atypical setup this evening will also lead to a potential for severe storms behind the front. Given continued steep lapse rates and high amounts of instability, a few elevated supercells capable of large hail will be possible across North Texas after around 10pm. The main line of storms associated with the front will continue moving to the southeast through the night, likely exiting our far eastern and southeastern counties closer to sunrise Tuesday. Cloudy skies will persist through much of tomorrow morning, but should gradually disperse by tomorrow afternoon. In contrast with today`s temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, tomorrow`s highs will stay in the 80s across North Texas to mid 70s across Central Texas.

I'm not impressed with the tornado threat frankly, with the veered wind profile above 925mb and the (relatively) limited low-level shear. The hail threat is legit though, as well as the potential for downburst winds.

Actually, all of the Collin County suburbs (Plano, Frisco, McKinney, Allen, etc.) are in the 10% hatched SigTor area.

What a mess of a setup. This map might end up being closer to correct after all.

Latest forecast for my area from FWD (previously, it only called for a 20% slight chance of t'storm this evening).