Powerball

00z GFS in particular is looking quite torchy for the Southern Plains starting this weekend through the end of May. Obviously the models will continue to struggle with the exact details over the next several days and potential MCS along the edges will complicate things the further north one is, but with a deeply -PNA and the MJO headed into Phase 4, the signal pattern-wise for that well-advertised Mexican heat ridge to expand/settle NE is definitely there. And with it in all likelihood being a dirty ridge, it's going to be an oppressively muggy one too (similar to last June). For the folks down in South/Central Texas, better savor the last of your widespread rain / cloud cover chances this week while you can...

As usual, there's that cap... The sounding actually looks less impressive than it did this morning.

And there is it. Tornado Watch in effect until 9pm...

There's definitely some empirical evidence to support a eastward shift (towards Dixie Alley) over the past few decades

And that's what the latest warning in Wise County calls for (Tennis Ball Size Hail).

I think I know where they're going with this, but for now, they only issued a Severe T'Storm Watch for the northern 2 row of Texas Counties. I'm thinking it's going to be a Tornado Watch for everyone else (we'll find out soon).

That one cell moving into Jacksboro is currently warned for Golf Ball Size Hail.

Will just have to keep an eye on the radar trends at this point. A watch (Severe Thunderstorm) is incoming...

The last few runs of the HRRR, which has the most bullish of all the Hi-Res models for DFW, seem pretty consistent with keeping the severe activity south of I-20 and west of I-35.

No.

In addition to tying the record high, DFW also saw its earliest highest dewpoint ever observed with the dewpoint topping out at 78*F today. Previous record was also 78*F on 5/13/1995.

DFW achieved a high of 91*F yesterday and 95*F today. Today's high ties the record, and it's also the first 95*F+ day of the year.

It just so happened that all of the ingredients, this time, came together further to the north and west. This was a pretty significant outbreak for NW Indiana and SW Michigan.

FWIW...

The cell has weakened a bit, but it was pushing over 80 DBZs for a good minute.

Nasty-looking hail core moving through Joliet right now. Easily Golfball to Baseball-Sized Hail with that. And it would be making a B-Line through Chicago proper if it maintains intensity.

Right. We can bring up edge/extreme cases as a comparison until we're blue in the face if it just to be pedantic. But while anything is possible, as of now I'm not seeing evidence to suggest we're going to have 13+ more confirmed reports of tornadoes incoming. And that's a good thing IMO. Regardless, it was still quite the active day to top off what's been a fairly acfive season for much of the Plains.

To address the point of whether yesterday was a bust, per the SPC, the expectation would be for 20+ more tornado reports *AND/OR* a derecho with widespread winds of 80+ MPH. Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/prob_cat_mar22.html So technically, once all of the reports are confirmed (there's only 7 so far), this event will likelly end up falling short. But the pedantry of whether yesterday was a bust aside, from a real world standpoint, it doesn't matter. Possibly multiple lives have been lost and at least one town has been destroyed. Plus, there were over 300 severe weather reports in total yesterday, which is impressive in any setup.

And, per my post, the radar in SW OK has since blown up. These are the cells that could cause problems for OKC down to the Red River soon. Some were a bit too quick to write off this area.

Up until this point, there's been nothing to force convective development south of I-40 That said, I would still keep an eye out on the Lawton and Wichita Falls area for more discrete development over the next couple of hours, especially with the actual jet streak moving in. NWS Norman seems to be on a similar wavelength, because they're now thinking the best timing for severe weather in OKC and southward is between 11pm and 1am.

^^^^Good thing the forcing is weak, because that's a flimsy looking cap if I ever saw one..

It's not even a delay in initiation either (storms are developing right now, if anything a bit ahead of schedule).