Powerball

It's been a while since you all have had a legit drought, so you're finally.paying your dues.

@hardypalmguy water bill is gonna be through the roof trying to keep his palms hydrated...

Overachieving today, as the convective debris has finally relented. DFW is currently at 90*F

Ewww, and we know what came of the 1992 Summer...

Although we've been dealing with persistent convective debris the past week or so, temps have been solidly in the 80s. Seeing what's happening out east in the Carolinas and TN/OH Valley, it could be so much worse...

A massive hail core tracked through the Collin County suburbs of DFW late yesterday (right on the tail end of rush hour) with numerous reports of Golf Ball to Tennis Ball-sized hail. It kind of popped up out of nowhere. It was somewhat similar to the hailstorm that slammed my location several weeks ago, except the path yesterday was a few miles to the north.

I'll repeat myself one more time, because (with all due respect) now you're just talking in circles. The discussion was about why areas in this subforum (but now you're trying to move the goal post by comparing some place like Oklahoma) outside of MI see severe weather more frequently. The answer is because: 1. They live in an area where don't have to deal with the stabilizing effects from cool bodies of water, thus t'storm downdrafts have a much easier time mixing down to the surface to produce damage and a t'storm's updraft doesn't get cut off as easily. 2. They live in an area where the moisture content that contributes to the levels of instability/precip-loading is notably higher due to having an extensive coverage of corn fields, which empirically hold/transpire water much more efficiently than other vegetation. T'storms, by their nature, tend to develop more easily and propagate towards regions where the combined instability/moisture levels are highest. It has little to do with droughts, pressure bars, frontal timing (which is mainly just bad luck), nor whatever other theory has been concocted. Also, I'm not sure what's your point about Spring vs. Summer convection. The ingredients required for convection and severe weather are the same regardles of the time of year and location. It's just that in some places and during some seasons, these ingredients come together more frequently than others. I can't make it any clearer than I already have. And if the answer (despite being reality, which you know good & well it is if you're a Met) isn't satisfying, that's too bad. My suggestion is if you're frustrated with severe weather climo in Michigan, you should move to a favorable region like I did.

Disgusting...

It's a pretty "meh" setup, with the nebulous forcing/moisture and veered flow. That said, could see some decent downburst winds in areas that do get hit.

Please keep all that smoke up there. Thanks!

Statistically, that's incorrect. 1. Michigan is only responsible for 2% of the country's corn production, versus double digit numbers in IL / MN / NE / IA respectfully (and 7% in IN). And just about all of this 2% is concentrated in an extremely small portion of MI (Saginaw Valley and along the immediate MI/OH/IN border) 2. While a large oak tree for example can transpire maybe 40,000 gallons of water per year (which true, Michigan has plenty of), corn can transpire 4,000 gallons of water *PER DAY*. So the difference is a lot greater than "negligible." I get the frustration about the lack of severe weather or even t'storm activity in Michigan. But it has far less to do with synoptic patterns than you guys want to attribute. It's a combination of bad luck, the influence of vegetations/bodies of waters and also remembering the past in a much better light than what really happened.

To say their climo would be similar is a big leap, but yes, their severe weather frequency would still be relatively higher than Michigan's even without the corn because, again, they don't have massive bodies of cool water surrounding them.

The bolded is definitely luck of the draw.

The 7 day total rainfall at DFW (since 5/6) was a whopping 0.63"

It can definitely be explained by corn evapotranspiration in part, in addition to the cooler lake waters acting acting as buffers. As far as Corn, the coverage is fairly miniscule in Michigan compared to IA/IL/IN/MN. It should also be noted, the climatological peak for severe weather in that part of the country (despite what seems to be the common misconception) is late June / early July. April and May aren't all that favorable for severe weather outside of the Central/Southern Plains. And yes, Chinook Winds are a thing in the Western Plains (The Dakotas, Nebraska, KS, OK and TX). But not so much in IA/MN/WI/IL/IN/MO which all see a significantly greater frequency of severe weather than Michigan.

Maybe you misunderstood what I said, because that was my point exactly. The fact that most "Training Storms" are not rooted at the surface is why they have an easier time surviving trips across the lake, versus surface-based storms which are more likely to produce severe weather. There have been plenty of setups where Michigan got a good feed of moisture from the gulf while other areas did not. It's all dependent on jet dynamics and the orientation of the trough. Now of course, that moisture advecting northward into Michigan from the Gulf of Mexico is traveling hundreds of miles over relatively barren land, so of course it's going to be modified & shallow by the time it reaches your latitude. This is unlike in the Plains where it's a lot harder for gulf moisture to mix out because of the added evapotranspiration from the corn fields. Synoptically-speaking, there's nothing special about Michigan and its location that explains the lower frequency of severe weather. It has everything to do with features such as the cool lake waters and the relative lack of crop/vegetation that holds extra moisture. That's not true. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/02/corn-sweat-midwest-plains-heatwave/ The ideal setup for training storms is the same everywhere, and it's not specific to Michigan. The truth is though, training events are pretty unusual in their own right everywhere (due to the nature of how convection works). Most locations don't experience them often.

Today will be more of a wet microburst setup. Shear and forcing both look pretty mediocre, but the atmosphere seems primed for precip loading with the temperature spread expected at the surface.

Will be interesting to watch convective trends for DFW the next few hours. The cap has completely eroded and pretty aggressive moisture advection is underway, but the better forcing is well to the NW. That said, some fairly modest convergence exists along the dry line and it's beginning to trigger some convection right now around Stephenville (not projected by the CAMS). Will also have to see what happens with the outflow boundaries from convection upstram across Southern OK, which could also act as triggers. I did notice the marginal risk area was expanded pretty far SE in the last update.

That's because storms tend to be rooted higher up in the atmosphere at night (and also feed off instability rooted higher up in the atmosphere), so the surface marine layer has much less of an impact on their intensity. As far as moisture, yes, all the corn fields in IA/IL do help to give areas west of the lakes an extra boost (evapotranspiration). That doesn't have much to do with how moisture advects northward from the gulf though.

A +1.6*F departure where in the first week of May?

As already mentioned, no one said the first half of May would be cold. Larry Cosgrove was the closest, and even he predicted that the pattern would break by 5/9. That said, the first week of May has certainly been cold relative to average, which was expected by most.

FWD did add heavy rain wording to the grids. Damaging straight lines winds could be a greater threat today versus the past 2 days with much more precip loading and what looks to be a weak shortwave moving through (cold pool potential). Hi-Res models do look more bullish for the Metroplex than they did Thursday and Friday.