Powerball

Up until this point, there's been nothing to force convective development south of I-40 That said, I would still keep an eye out on the Lawton and Wichita Falls area for more discrete development over the next couple of hours, especially with the actual jet streak moving in. NWS Norman seems to be on a similar wavelength, because they're now thinking the best timing for severe weather in OKC and southward is between 11pm and 1am.

^^^^Good thing the forcing is weak, because that's a flimsy looking cap if I ever saw one..

It's not even a delay in initiation either (storms are developing right now, if anything a bit ahead of schedule).

And initiation is now underway...

Agitated CU field has formed along the border of West OK and the TX Panhandle border. I would expect initiation in this area over the next 1-2 hours.

Not surprised. Looking at the SPC mesoanalysis as well as the latest HRRR depicted sounding, the cap is already all but gone in FWD (with dews pooling into the low 70s). At this point, it's just the lack of a meaningful trigger mechanism that's holding development back (for now) with the main shortwave still way back in CO.

Just as a preemptive reminder...

Caveat Emptor: It appears to be (in part) a Broyles production...

This is going to be one hell of a muggy Summer...

DFW's turn, at last...

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1783885165040898066?t=UZ34pRVGQExybStBOOrYcA&s=19

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1783876960210526242?t=5PL2oi86xFM9zM08U0ZmOg&s=19

For DFW, as daytime heating gets under way, there *MAY* be a very brief window during the late morning / early afternoon hours today where some tail-end charlies could backbuild and become surface-based with the enhanced low-level covergence, but it will be threading the needle with the better upper-level forcing/dynamics/shear quickly shifting NE.

There has been a shit ton of large hail reports (not surprising given the ample elevated instability and deep layer shear), but per usual with the setups this season, the extensive mid/upper-level cloud cover steadily streaming in from.the Pacific (thanks to the STJ) limited the extent of surface-based instability/cap erosion. Things could still rip further south in OK/TX along the dryline as the shortwave shifts eastward and the LLJ ramps up, but it will primarily continue to be a vivd lightning, flash flooding and large hail threat. Perhaps things will be different in the Fall or next Spring as we transition into a La Nina ENSO state (and the STJ loses its grip).

Fleeting was probably a better word. In addition to the increased cloud cover limiting insolation needed for sufficient surface-based instability, there's also some correlation during an El Nino with the weaker surface wind fields limiting the extent to which warm/moist air from the Gulf advects northward (unlike during a La Nina). I wouldn't expect models, especially those that aren't convection-allowing, to pick up on these details several days out. The ENSO state is only one of many factors, but possibly one that shouldn't be ignored/dismissed as a significant factor for the underwhelming season thus far. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/el-niño-and-la-niña-affect-spring-tornadoes-and-hailstorms

I suspect the fleeting El Nino is also having an effect. The seemingly persistent high/mid-level cloud cover advecting in from the Pacific with the unrelenting subtropical jet puts a cap on the diurnal temp swings, thus the extent of instability, in these setups.

Now that the crap is behind us, the next 2 weeks are looking pretty solid. Not necessarily a blow torch, but definitely warm with temps in the 70s/80s. The projected blocking over the Atlantic / Greenland is a little concerning, with respect to the risk of an occasional backdoor "polar" front, but the -PNA should help to keep much of its influence to the NE of Texas.

Sadly, pretty impressive for what some declared to be cold shot overdone by forecast guidance. Although a new record wasn't technically set due to a midnight high of 63*F, DFW spent much of the daylight hours yesterday in the upper 40s & lower 50s. The official record minimum high was 53*F. Hopefully, after today, we're done with the 50s/60s until next "Winter."

I will say, this is some of the fiercest (and loudest) thunder & lightning I've seen in a long time for elevated t'storms.

GEM has a massive cold bias. So I can say with confidence 30s aren't going to happen in DFW, especially with the extensive cloud cover expected Beyond that, I hate cold weather and I'm ready for Summer. So frankly, I'm dreading the temps over the next few days and personally have no interest in discussing it. For others, I suspect there's not much interest in discussing it because it's way too cold for severe weather (whatever thunderstorm activity there is will be elevated) yet still way too warm for wintry precipitation.