Powerball

But for now, they're Bunting...

Treating Extreme Heat in Dallas as a ‘Moral Issue’ https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2023/08/treating-extreme-heat-in-dallas-as-a-moral-issue/

And in other news, water is wet...

Models are still struggling with how to handle the overall pattern beyond Sunday, it seems in part because of the MJO. If the MJO remains in the COD (possible), it may supersede effects from the developing +PNA / -NAO / -AO which should allow for the hot & dry pattern to continue uninterrupted across much of the Southern Plains. But if the MJO sneaks into Phase 8 / Phase 1, that may translate to deeper and longer duration troughing, at least for the early part of next week. And of course regardless of the outcome with the upper level pattern, for North Texas there's still some question on a mesoscale level about the influence any outflow boundaries from nearby thunderstorms complexes in OK / AR will have.

It's so hot that FWD can't even think straight...

Welp, I spoke it into existence. As of 4pm, today's record high of 107*F has been tied at DFW...

What's crazier to me is that all but one of the top 10 coldest Summers on record are from 30+ years ago (and most of them are from 50-100+ years ago). On top of that, DFW may just see back-to back top 10 hottest Summers on record if the current pattern continues through August (still skeptical). And that will mean 5 of the top 10 years for the hottest Summers would have been in the past 15 years. EDIT: And lastly, it would also be impressive for 2023 to achieve top 10 hottest Summer status without a single record high being tied/broken (still has yet to happen). EDIT 2: Disregard the 1st edit, lol...

To start the month, the smoke is back in full force!

The record highs for DFW today and tomorrow are 106*F and 107*F respectfully. While low-hanging fruit compared to the records in 2011, 2022 and 1980, we have a decent shot at breaking or tying both of them.

Precipitation is going to be a bit more tricky to predict beyond next week, especially for us in North Texas as it will be dependent on both the timing/strength/track of subtle shortwaves riding the edge of the flattening ridge and the influence of outflow boundaries from MCS in OK. We saw a similar pattern back in early/mid-June. I wouldn't expect the ensembles or weeklies to pick up on this either.

62 MPH wind gust reported at KSTL. EDIT: It was actually a 79 MPH wind gust.

Pretty decent MCS pushing towards St. Louis. Shear's lacking, but it's tied to a MCV / cold pool and it has that "long-lived" look to it as well. Still appears to be somewhat elevated now, but per the SPC mesoanalysis page for 0-3km CAPE, the stable layer has almost eroded with clear skies ahead of it and convective temps being reached.

There are early indications that the ridge will finally break down by next weekend, and shift back westward over Phoenix, as blocking over Greenland intensifies. Probably not an earth shattering change though, just a return to seasonal temps.

I'll take the bait... I'm not laughing at your health problems (and I certainly wish you get the help you deserve). I'm laughing at 2 things: 1. Your clapbacks at Stebo, because I just plain don't like him (the reason why has nothing to do with you). 2. The fact that your extremely unrealistic expectations for weather in Grand Rapids in spite of its climo, which has been explained to you ad-nauseam, has you becoming so unhinged that you're devolving into nonsensical diatribes over it with strangers on an internet forum. And I already suspected you have health problems, FYI. Just not the physical kind with the way you've been carrying on. I actually think it's sad (not funny), which is why I've been giving you Weenie reactions. I hope this helps and please be blessed!

https://www.instagram.com/p/CvQPK8xv4Jd/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA%3D%3D

Oddly enough, the temp dropped to 97*F from 98*F as of the 3pm observation at DFW despite nearly full sunshine. Might see a brief break in the 100*F+ streak after all... EDIT: Welp, never mind...

Decent-looking appetizer cell has popped up over downtown Detroit. I might even go severe soon. EDIT: Has expanded to engulf much of the east side now.

Here's a sanity check for the cliff jumpers from DTX. TL;DR = At least give these long summer days a chance to play out before declaring a bust... 000 FXUS63 KDTX 281118 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 311 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Shortwave moving through the Straights early this morning, with with mid level jet forcing supporting widespread showers and thunderstorms moving through northern Lake Michigan. However, as the activity propagates southeast, outflow boundary is outrunning the support and beginning to run into the warm and dry mild levels in place over southern Lower Michigan, where 700 MB temps of 12 C reside. If showers/thunderstorms don`t make it in, at the very least, the outflow/frontal boundary will likely hang around along/north of I-69 today, which could serve as focus for convection today, as 700 MB level begins to moisten up and temps cool/lower to around 10 C, making for a marginal cap, especially as surface dew pts ramp up into the 70s. Right now, seeing dew pts around 80 degrees around Quad Cities which will be directed toward far southern Lower Michigan this morning, with several upper level filaments also tracking through. With showers and now thunderstorms noted over northern Illinois (hires models not capturing), certainly need chance pops in for this morning. The issue is, it looks like we get into upper level negative PV advection/general subsidence for the afternoon, which suggests convective activity may be limited or non-existent during this time, allowing for instability to build to moderate to high levels. SREF weighted local probabilistic guidance suggests Mlcapes of 2000 J/kg, while the 12z NAM suggests MLcapes aoa 4000 J/kg, but upper 70 dew pts to near 80 degrees looks too high, low to mid 70s is more realistic. That moisture content will also make it tough for maxes to get much past 90 degrees, and that assumes skies will be mostly sunny-partly cloudy for a good portion of the afternoon. Either way, southeast Michigan should be primed for severe weather (mainly wind), with a significant shortwave/jet streak (0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60 knots) appearing to come out of Minnesota/northern Wisconsin late in the day. Lead edge of the wind gradient/height falls suggests activity developing by early evening (5-9 PM) and quickly growing upscale and diving southeast, as substantial 500 MB height fall center (30-60 M) is progged to track through Lower Michigan tonight.

DTX has a pretty good post-analysis on this event, and more photos... https://www.weather.gov/dtx/severeweather07262023

It's been happening a lot as of late.

What's funny is that in hindsight, yesterday did play out quite similar to what's depicted in your post...

lol.

Might as well go for back-to-back top 10 hottest summers...