Powerball

OP's thread tag is starting to age like milk...

2011 and 2012...

The GFS really is a terrible model.

And I love that for y'all...

What an awful model the GFS is. One run, it shows a 600dm ridge over the GL / NE next week, the next run it shows a dirty 582dm ridge with the remnants of a tropical disturbance.

Larry Cosgrove wasn't wrong with his prediction of a very warm Spring (although yes, he was wrong about it being dry). 2024 was the 6th warmest Spring on record for the US. Not even Morch was a wall-to-wall torch the entire month. And even if it were, statistically-speaking, it's unrealistic to hold that or 2012 in general as the standard for a warm temperature pattern. And yes, Cosgrove was a few weeks too bullish with the transition to eastern ridging / western troughing for Met. Summer. But while delayed, it's definitely still happening.

Next week's been shot for a while. It's the 3rd week of June when it should really lock in.

The blame game aside, this is just a reminder that people should not take severe t'storm predictions lightly, as the environment will be conducive to rapidly evolving conditions at a mesoscale level that even Meteorologists may not always be able to proactively warn the public about.

As mentioned in the other thread, enjoy the next 2 weeks while they last. Indications are that eastern realignment of the heat ridge should be underway starting the 3rd week of June, which should be the dominant pattern (aside from the occasional transient breakdown with NW flow shortwaves or tropical activity) for the remainder of the Summer. There won't be any smoke levels of consequence to help obscure solar insolation this time either.

Y'all are definitely getting the goods. Seems the city's getting slammed right now too, maybe even with some small hail.

Spoke too sonn. Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the NE half of the Metroplex with 65 MPH winds. We're getting hit pretty good here now. Vivid lightning, but oddly enough, not much thunder.

The MCS is outflow dominant, which is a good thing. But it has reached here and those winds mean businesss. Easily getting 50 MPH gusts.

As mentioned, deep layer shear is relatively underwhelming, but otherwise the setup is looking remarkably similar to last Tuesday morning (just a bit further NE). If the looming MCS can establish a cold pool, it could get hairy.

A weak one, but it's definitely there .

The cell just NE of Royse City has gone severe. The velocity on radar shows some pretty strong downburst winds with it.

The OFB may have run its course, as the storms are now taking on more of a ENE motion. EDIT: Upgraded to Flash Flood Warning now.

Flood Advisory in effect for Collin and Dallas Counties until 8pm.

Definitely seeing more vertical development in the CU field overhead, and the Outflow-driven storms near the Red River seem to be showing signs of reintensifying now.

Insolation being obscured from all the Canadian wildfire smoke didn't help either.

The expectation was always for a back-loaded Summer, at least in y'alls neck of the woods.

Enjoy it while it lasts (next 2 weeks). Indications are that eastern realignment of the death ridge should be underway starting the 3rd week of June.

For DFW this afternoon, will have to closely watch that Outflow Boundary pushing towards the Red River. There's still some residual capping, but it's eroding rapidly with the low clouds having scattered out and strong heating underway. Also, seeing some very impressive low level convergence as it will run up against a modest 20-25kt LLJ. It can go a number of ways, either new storms develop or the currently elevated line becomes surface-based and reintensify.

SPC seems fairly bullish on yet another round of strong/severe t'storms for DFW during peak heating today. It's definitely plausible with the outflow boundary from today's activity in the vicinity, negligble capping and possibly another MCV from the storms in KS passing by, although the CAMs are still completely clueless with handling this potential right now. If they do in fact develop, today could arguably feature more intense storms with a more pristine EML.