Powerball

The EURO was already an outlier when they issued the outlook this morning.

And 1 new SPC outlook later, DFW has gone from being in the enhanced risk area to barely being in the slight risk area, lol..

There was apparently quite a bit of correspondence with the NWS branches for this outlook, according to FWD.. Pretty ominous AFD from them, although I'm still not seeing it in the cards for the Metroplex due to capping... 542 FXUS64 KFWD 081058 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 558 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 ...Significant Severe Weather Episode Expected Across Most Of North Texas Into Eastern Central Texas Late Friday Afternoon Into Friday Night... As has been discussed in recent long term discussions the past 24-48 hours, it appears a fairly significant severe weather episode is taking shape for specifically areas east of US-281 in North Texas into our East Texas counties late Friday afternoon into Friday night, specifically the evening hours. Large to very large hail will be the primary concerns to go along with an additional risk for localized damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado across our far eastern counties. First the hail threat. A surface low with a trailing surface dryline to the south will move progressively southeast from NW TX and the Big Country into the Eastern Hill Country and western Central TX by 00z Saturday (or early evening Friday). This will be in response to mid level height falls out in advance of a vigorous shortwave expected to arrive Friday evening. In advance of this feature, the left-exit region of a 110-120 knot upper jet maximum will be moving from the Permian Basin and across SCentTX into SE TX. Impressive low level warm advection from 35-45 low level flow within the 925mb-850mb layer will help to transport moisture-rich air from the TX Coast and nearshore waters north-northeast across areas along and east of I-35 corridor as evidenced by surface dew point temperatures in the mid-upper 60s. Throw in warm spring temperatures well into the 80s across most areas east of the approaching dryline and we`re staring at late day SB/MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/KG to go along with VERY STEEP mid level lapse rates between 8-9 deg C/km aloft. Kinematically, this thermodynamic environment will correlate with westerly deep layer shear on the order of 40-45 knots. After correspondence with SPC it was agreed that the European model would be the preferred model on trends with the surface low, cold front, and dryline (not as far east and mixing out surface moisture as much as the GFS and not exhibiting too cool of a bias east of the dryline, thus keeping the area more capped with less convective initiation and/or keep storms strictly "elevated"). South of the surface low and behind the dryline late Friday afternoon, hot temperatures in the lower-mid 90s will correlate with very dry air and breezy west or northwest winds for an elevated wildfire threat south of I-20 and especially along and west of US-281. If not for the latest green up the past month, we`d be likely looking at higher ERC-G values and a more critical wildfire threat. As all these variables and parameters come together, the initially strong capping inversion in the 850mb-700mb layer should lift, moisten, and weaken across much of the area during the evening rush hour for at least isolated to scattered storms to begin developing from the DFW Metro north and east. With the impressive free lift noted in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 deg C), we are staring at the prospects of seeing intense updrafts aloft with hail similar to what was seen in both the Denton to Wylie and Dallas/Van Alstyne hail events of the past decade when it comes to hail size. Might as well throw in the early April event of 2003 as well as historical analogs from forecast point soundings of several models show events that contained golfball to even baseball or softball size hail. Considering the curved low level profile through 850mb veering and lengthening above that, and a weakening cap from mid afternoon through early evening, discrete supercell tstorms will be possible. I believe the cap should hold most areas during this time for hail to be the main threat and impact, though storms will approach becoming surface-based by early Friday evening ahead of an advancing cold front arriving from OK into North-Central TX. The best bet for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be east of the DFW Metroplex and across areas east of Hwy 75 in the north and along and east of I-45 in Central Texas. The one mitigating factor for higher tornado threat will be relatively weak and veering low level 0-1 km flow 5-15 knots, as the strong low level 40 knot+ winds migrate east of our the area by evening. This will shift the greater tornado and damaging wind threat further east toward the Piney Woods/AR-LA-TX east into the Lower MS Valley, which is the eastern half of the newly issued Enhanced Risk from SPC across this region. As we enter the nighttime hours post- sunset, the vigorous mid level shortwave will be tracking toward the LA/TX border region and help draw the strong cold front over OK southward into North Texas through midnight. Previous discrete modes will transform more into a squall line (or linear MCS if you prefer) to track south- southeast from east of US 287/I-35W in North TX through our far eastern counties from mid evening into the early pre-dawn hours. At this time, I expect primarily a damaging wind threat to go along with lower end severe hail in the range of quarter to possible half dollar size with updraft strength not being quite as intense due to interruption from other storms along the line.

It has potential. Highly conditional setup this far west though.

Haven't the past several years been a "Dixie Alley" year? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2

The only thing that seems to be guaranteed is that we're going to be dealing with a worsening Spring drought.

BTW, I guess any event that's not the end of the world is just going to be a glorified Special Weather Statement now...

I miss Snow Advisories and Heavy Snow Warnings.

Is there an inside joke that I'm missing?

As is common with convection, their mesoscale effects kind of screwed up the whole surface pattern compared to what the models showed as the elevated prefrontal activity from yesterday morning turned into the main show while MS and TN were (relatively) spared.

I know memories aren't always long when it comes to weather, but Newnan was just hit with tornadoes back in October (not even 6 months ago).

Looks like I left Newnan just in time. Reports suggests that, at minimum, a EF4 tornado blew through the middle of town. Substantial structural damage being reported.

I suspect not only will they extend the watch (set to expire in 15 minutes), but likely upgrade it to a Tornado Watch

Well, the Dallas side of the Metroplex has had activity in virtually every which direction surrounding it, but not overhead. Definitely luck of the draw, lol.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the rest of the DFW MEtroplex up to the OK border.

How's the green up progressing there (if at all)?

And it increasingly appears another high risk area may be issued by the SPC for parts of the same areas tomorrow that were hit last week. It's not often you see 2 high risk days in a season, let alone virtually back-to-back in the same areas.

I know it's a different region, but in addition to the already rare high risk area for today, the SPC has issued a 45% tornado risk area for W. Central AL Apparently, the SPC has only issued this 5 other times in its history.

As rough as the week of 2/15 was (being without power for 2 days straight), it's being able to see stuff like below in February that helps to make up for it. Mesoscale Discussion 0135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0959 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Areas affected...northeast Texas through southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281559Z - 281730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity by late morning into the afternoon. Primary threats will be isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts, though a tornado or two will also be possible. A WW will likely be needed before 17Z. DISCUSSION...As of mid morning a cold front extends from eastern OK through north central and west central TX. An isolated thunderstorm with mid-level updraft rotation has developed on the front and is located just east of Gainesville with another isolated storm near Mineral Wells. The downstream warm sector is already moderately unstable with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE supported by upper 60s F dewpoints and 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Further destabilization will occur, but will be limited to some degree by widespread multi-layer clouds. Weak, progressive impulses embedded within the southwesterly upper flow regime and forcing along the cold front will contribute to an increase in thunderstorm coverage later this morning as the boundary layer slowly warms. The primary low-level jet has shifted east of this region resulting in small 0-1 km hodographs. However, a belt of strong southwesterly winds increasing to around 70 kt at 500 mb resides above the warm sector and is contributing to 60+ kt effective bulk shear. Therefore, some storms should organize with supercells and bowing segments likely, eventually consolidating into a dominant linear mode. Large hail and isolated damaging wind will be the main threats. The small low-level hodographs should tend to limit overall tornado threat. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ..Dial/Hart.. 02/28/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32559772 33599665 34899484 34329358 31909679 31859817 32559772

Thanks.

My understanding of the Kuchera method is that it's a somewhat convoluted calculation of moisture content and lift in the DGZ. This is my first time hearing about the 17:1 ratio thing.

Well, the Kuchera maps have been spot on with the snow down here, FWIW. They even pegged the snow amounts in San Antonio and Austin right.

BTW, I would definitely be salty about missing this storm if the EURO ends up correct, lol.

Well damn!!! When's the last time we saw these areas share a widespread 12-15" snowstorm?