Maggie Valley Steve

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 341 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 NCZ033-048>050-052-059-062-142000- /O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0003.240115T0600Z-240116T1200Z/ Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Northern Jackson-Macon- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands 341 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected, and spotty freezing rain could add a light glaze of ice. * WHERE...Portions of the mountains of western North Carolina. * WHEN...From 1 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very cold temperatures and light snow or light freezing drizzle could linger through Tuesday morning. Additional statements may be needed to address this as confidence increases. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet, or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message with your observation and the specific location where it occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report using hashtag nwsgsp. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. The latest state road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

00Z Euro

I'll take my 5 inches and call it a day.

GSP issues Winter Storm Watch for Swain and Graham Counties.

Very encouraging today. You folks in the SW looking really good today for a significant event. I'm a bit worried about down sloping, but even the Euro gives me 4 or 5 inches!

Well how about that. Now let's see what the Canadian and European spin up!

Now sleet and graupel at the house.

Webcam shows it is snowing at Cataloochee now.

Temperature has been falling here as well. It 53 here at 11 AM and has dropped to 45 in the last half hour with some light rain.

I'd like to see some plumes/percentages from the ensembles for chances of 1 inch snow for our Region. The operational guidance appears to be struggling too much at this range for me to trust their solutions.

Looking like we have another episode of W to NWFS tomorrow night. It doesn't look as vigorous as the system, but another chance to add to seasonal totals perhaps.

Another 48 hours and we might have a solution! Very encouraging trends today so far, though!

Another day and another solution via the operational guidance. So the GFS and Canadian have trended toward the Euro in developing a low somewhere between I-20 and the Gulf Coast? Frankly I'm not sure with 5 days to go that these computer schemes are done moving around. Got to remember that all that Arctic air hasn't even materialize in real time so far. That chunk of very dense Artic airmass likey will not materialize until our Friday rainstorm moves well into Canada. My wag is to see what Saturday and Sunday solutions hold. Remember last weekend this storm was suggested for this Sunday into Monday. Now it's Monday into Tuesday.

Surprised how icy the secondary roads are here in the Valley.

Looks like about an inch of snow here in the Valley. Wind howled all night long and at one point around 11:30 PM it was blizzard like conditions.

Moderate snow in Maggie. Heavy enough to cover the decks.

These strong storm systems are carving out a path for huge chunk of the coldest air since a year ago December to enter our Region. There is a one two punch arriving Monday and next Tuesday. That storm on Monday hasn't resolved in model world and this batch of cold has staying power in my opinion.

Winds now getting gusty and rain has stopped.

Not good at all!

Haywood schools are closing.

GSP seems a bit bullish on the unusual flow snow starting early this evening for the SW and W facing mountains, particularly the Smokies. It is looking like a potential 10 to 14 hour flow snow event as winds behind the front slowly veer from the SW to W before finally favoring the typical NWFS locations. Winter Weather Advisory appears to be likely later this afternoon.

Not much of a wind issue in the Valley so far, but it has been pouring rain all night. I'm sure Jonathan Creek is running high. 44 and moderate rain at this time.

22 this morning in the Valley.

Nice storm on the 16th and 17th via the 00Z Euro...

The storm system on Tuesday almost broke a record for a Bering Sea low last week. It looks extremely dynamic with a lot of wind energy. Perhaps this is the storm that begins the changes in pattern that we've been watching. Hopefully we don't wash away in the meantime!