Maggie Valley Steve

I've picked up 2.5 inches of rain so far. Temperature here at the house has begun to fall and the ceiling has lowered almost to the Valley floor in the past hour.

So it is coming down to the Meso Models ~vs~ globals with 24 hours to go. Seems the Mesoscale guidance is sniffing out waves of low pressure riding along and ahead of the boundary. I see that GSP is calling for an Advisory level event above 3500 ft. Yesterday afternoon they were mentioning the possibility of some flash freezing of roadways also being a concern. My hunch is 2 to 4 above 3k with an inch or two into Asheville and possibility Hickory. I've got to say that in this period of so called "torch", I'll very pleased with 2 snow events in less than a week!

The NAM nest will certainly be interesting to watch. I'd typically cut the QPF in half, but perhaps the meso models are sniffing out multiple waves riding along the trough with heavier rates than previously anticipated.

So the 00Z NAM gives me 6 inches. Even Asheville is near Winter Storm Warning criteria.

I've been monitoring all the various guidance most of the week wondering how in the world could a anafront with cold chasing rain drop a couple of inches of snow in a couple of hours? If the full latitude trough turns a bit more negative and another wave of low pressure tries to organize in Alabama, I suppose it's possible. I'll be watching all weekend and see if we can go 2 for 2 in the "surprise " category.

Surprised! Picked up a half inch in Maggie!

So much for being too dry at the Valley level. Rain/sleet mix in Maggie.

Cataloochee has snow flurries now.

Good luck overnight into tomorrow morning Mountain folk! There are some hints of a few areas potentially favorable for thundersnow early in the morning. Barring any convective element here at 3300 ft, I'm not expecting much if any accumulation. It just looks too dry near the Valley for anything to accumulate. Fingers crossed that I wake up surprised tomorrow morning.

Looking more likely that a decent chance of snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday including the Valleys. GSP hinted at Winter Weather Advisory for our area this afternoon.

Picked up 2/10th of an inch today. Wind has definitely been gusty all day.

16 here on the Valley floor this morning.

I'm personally liking what we are seeing in the medium range. So many opportunities for finally transitioning to a pattern that is typical of a slightly stronger Nino for our Region. Slow but surely that so called torch for next week is dwindling. We are close to seeing some meaningful Clipper activity. Compared to last year when I managed a couple of inches, I'll take the potential ahead.

Cataloochee Ski Area will open for the Winter 23/24 Season tomorrow morning at 9 AM!

It's going to be a very cold night. Already down to freezing here in the Valley at 5:30 PM.

31 here in the Valley. No snow, but the good news is Cataloochee has all the snow making equipment fired up from the base to the top of the mountain! Fingers crossed for a weekend opening?

I just checked the Webcam at Cataloochee Ski Area. They're getting snow flurries up at the base.

Ended up with 1.90 in the gage. Temperature is dropping from 50 down to 42 now.

Just what we needed in Haywood County. Very thankful to see over .50 inch in the rain gage this morning so far. It's breezy out and still raining.

Pattern change looking more likely as the weekend ends and the long Thanksgiving Holidays begin. Snow for Thanksgiving and beyond? It surely looks like a possibility.

Very surprised and thankful for the couple of inches that fell here in Maggie!

32 with light frost this morning in the Valley. That should do it for freezes until next weekend. We really need some rain. The longer range guidance is suggesting moisture increases just beyond mid month.

27 this morning with heavy frost again. There was definitely an inversion overnight. It was 43 up at Cataloochee this morning.

23 with heavy frost to the Valley floor.

22 this morning in the Valley. Cataloochee was 15 this morning at 7 AM. No snow making though.