Maggie Valley Steve

Been doing this weather thing for over 50 years and I've seen a lot of changes and improvement in technology during those years. In my experience, big time weather events/patterns are known in advance, some with a significant lead time. Big Arctic Outbreaks I've seen have had a week to 10 day period of hints in the guidance, mainly the ensembles of the reliable globals. Throw in all of the teleconnection indices pointing to a favorable possibility, I believe we may well be headed to an active and memorable time period beginning January 1st with the initial cold front stepping down with each of the flowing fronts. This may be one of the more prolonged periods for winter weather not seen in a number of years. Some the analogs are certainly pointing to that potential. Meanwhile it's almost 70° here in the Valley and tornadoes are once again spinning up in the Houston metro area. Changes, they are comin...

My old friend from SE Texas Larry Cosgrove had a very encouraging synopsis on our upcoming cold pattern tonight on Facebook. We all continue to see a very promising episode of an active storm track and much below temperatures. Fingers crossed that everyone scores during the upcoming pattern! I appreciate the imput you folks provide and Happy New Year to our neighbors on the other side of the mountains!

We've got to get through the weekend and the heavy rainfall threat before the pattern starts to change. Guidance is indicating the possibility of an inch or two with locally higher amounts this weekend. There could be some potential for isolated flooding concerns for creeks and streams. As Tyler mentioned, the GFS and ECMWF suggest the possibility of a disturbance riding out off Coastal Texas toward us as we begin 2025.

Merry Christmas Mountain Neighbors! Looking forward to be watching the upcoming weather pattern next week! For me, the weather is perfect for Christmas Day.

22° in the smokie Valley this morning. We had a big fire at the Heart of the Valley Motel Saturday which was housing our displaced neighbors from Helene. With the inversion, the smoke from that smoldering fire is trapped in the Valley.

18° here in the Valley this morning. Clear skies and nice half moon.

Surprisingly, we've had flurries most of the day as well! Nice Christmas mood 'feel'. The overnight snow on the ground has melted due to ground temps here in the Valley. Elevations above 4000ft have had snow all day.

Looking N from my front porch.

Waking up to just a dusting. There were 6 bulls at backdoor this morning too!

Currently light snow dusting the decks.

Graupel in Maggie now. Temperature dropped 10° in 15 minutes. Now 38° and falling. Edit to add, I encourage folks to download the mPing app. It was developed by Oklahoma University and NASA to provide a platform for the public to submit reports live. Those reports are monitored by our National Weather Service real time and the reports show up quickly on the app. It's great to see those reports and is informative to see what's going on around us!

My experience suggests not to fully trust those longer range MJO charts. As of recently, there has been too much volatility. Remember just last week they were suggesting a high amplitude Phase 7. My hunch is the pattern is nearing a reshuffle. Remember that we were to be 'torching' all the way to Christmas. That idea has collapsed with 10 to 15 degrees below normal arriving this weekend into at least Tuesday, possibly a day or two longer.

Looking like a Winter Weather Advisory event with generally 1 to 3 inches. Asheville and possibly Hendersonville could see snow showers breaking containment.

Thunderstorms with pea sized hail covering the driveway at this time.

Waking up to a muggy 56° this morning. Cold front arrives Wednesday night/Thursday morning dropping temperatures back to at least normal if not colder. Maybe a slight chance of NWFS, but keeping a closer eye on the weekend. The guidance has switched to a neutral/slightly negative trough and a much stronger shortwave diving in from the Great Lakes. Snow chance have increased and the transfer of low level energy has moved closer to the Coast. I'll be watching so see if the trends continue.

Winter Weather Advisory coming overnight into tomorrow morning for portions of the Mountains with a Hazardous Weather mention for Haywood County as well as other Mountain locations.

Looking like a sneaky event with a decent CAD in place for Sunday morning particularly for the Northern Mountains. A wintry mix potential is increasing suggesting a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed.

24° here this morning. No snow on my decks this time. I can hear the snow blowers at Tube World still going. It's going to be a great weekend for Winter Weather fun here in the Valley!

Radar out of Nashville and Morristown suggest another disturbance is heading our way for tonight. Temperature has dropped to 30° with occasional flurries and very gusty winds.

Rain mixed with snow here in Maggie. Cataloochee has snow.

Dropped from 56 to 46 the past hour. Wind just picked up as well. Cataloochee webcams show very low visibility and 44 currently.

Models appear to be struggling with the waves of low pressure riding along the front within a negative tilted trough. Some of the guidance suggests an upper air disturbance following the cold front from the W to NW as well. The wind is going to be howling and very cold air should move in late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. The 3km NAM is depicting a dusting to an inch of snow here in Maggie. If that happens, it will be the third accumulating snow so far this Winter. Still waiting on a bigger storm and perhaps there is something on the horizon just before Christmas. We will see.

This certainly is not a "torch" look for this Thursday.

Low this morning was 20°. Looking like a brief 'warmup' with rain chances increasing Sunday night into Monday morning. Another shot of cold Canadian air for Wednesday with NWFS. Looking ahead, I continue to be intrigued by the longer range guidance flipping from a late December and January so called "torch" to that of a very anomalous trough and cold air entrenched. The storm track looks active as well. Enjoy the 'thaw' the next several days and the week before Christmas!

Coldest morning of the Season so far. 9° for my low this morning. Looks like Waynesville area was colder with a reliable report of 3°.