Maggie Valley Steve

22 for my low. Temperature stayed steady all night.

Definitely an inversion tonight. I'm down to 22 already this evening.

17 here in the Valley. No snow on the ground.

Flurries in Maggie now.

Getting winds gusting to 40 now in the Valley. Clouds are rolling in over the Cataloochee Mountains.

Interesting to see the long fetch of gravity waves extending from N Georgia along the spine of the Apps into W Virginia. Trough is approaching from E TN and Kentucky down to N GA. Lots of energy and impressive dynamics ahead for this afternoon into overnight.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 238 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 NCZ048-051-052-058-180345- /O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0008.231218T1100Z-231219T1100Z/ Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham- Including the city of Faust 238 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph. * WHERE...Madison, Swain, Haywood and Graham Counties. * WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

Hunter just issued his first thought ideas on snowfall potential.

Still have a bit of frost left on my North facing mountain from yesterday morning. A dry cold front is passing this evening with a reinforcing shot of modified cold air. Obviously all eyes are on the weekend storm system. It's going to be fun to track another weekend system that could bring yet another chance of snow to the mountains. The 18Z GFS suggested 7 inches in my backyard. Snow making opportunities continue across our ski areas and that is a good thing!

Already down to freezing and frost from this morning never melted on my North facing mountain. What a way to run a "torch"! Cataloochee has a good crowd on the mountain for night skiing and snow making continues to increase the base. It is a great time to consider heading to the mountains for some fun on the slopes before the Holiday rush!

20 here in the Valley with the heaviest frost of the season.

Ripping snow at Cataloochee now.

Snow now mixing in at the base of Cataloochee. They're at 35 now. Edit to add: Cataloochee has flipped to all snow.

Down to 41. Cataloochee is showing 38 and rain on their Webcam.

I've picked up 2.5 inches of rain so far. Temperature here at the house has begun to fall and the ceiling has lowered almost to the Valley floor in the past hour.

So it is coming down to the Meso Models ~vs~ globals with 24 hours to go. Seems the Mesoscale guidance is sniffing out waves of low pressure riding along and ahead of the boundary. I see that GSP is calling for an Advisory level event above 3500 ft. Yesterday afternoon they were mentioning the possibility of some flash freezing of roadways also being a concern. My hunch is 2 to 4 above 3k with an inch or two into Asheville and possibility Hickory. I've got to say that in this period of so called "torch", I'll very pleased with 2 snow events in less than a week!

The NAM nest will certainly be interesting to watch. I'd typically cut the QPF in half, but perhaps the meso models are sniffing out multiple waves riding along the trough with heavier rates than previously anticipated.

So the 00Z NAM gives me 6 inches. Even Asheville is near Winter Storm Warning criteria.

I've been monitoring all the various guidance most of the week wondering how in the world could a anafront with cold chasing rain drop a couple of inches of snow in a couple of hours? If the full latitude trough turns a bit more negative and another wave of low pressure tries to organize in Alabama, I suppose it's possible. I'll be watching all weekend and see if we can go 2 for 2 in the "surprise " category.

Surprised! Picked up a half inch in Maggie!

So much for being too dry at the Valley level. Rain/sleet mix in Maggie.

Cataloochee has snow flurries now.

Good luck overnight into tomorrow morning Mountain folk! There are some hints of a few areas potentially favorable for thundersnow early in the morning. Barring any convective element here at 3300 ft, I'm not expecting much if any accumulation. It just looks too dry near the Valley for anything to accumulate. Fingers crossed that I wake up surprised tomorrow morning.

Looking more likely that a decent chance of snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday including the Valleys. GSP hinted at Winter Weather Advisory for our area this afternoon.

Picked up 2/10th of an inch today. Wind has definitely been gusty all day.