Bob Chill

Lol. Waaay too much sweating over 13 mile shifts and uneven qpf distribution. Save that stuff for when it really matters. Like 0z tomorrow. If your yard is still inside of the general idea, you should be elated really.

I did want to add something serious. Every single time models have tossed around the idea of a long drawn out event with even steven rates/distribution etc over 48 hours or more... It NEVER ends up working out like that. One of these 2 waves will be dominant and the other may be a letdown. Just going off memory. Everyone knows what I'm rooting for and it still includes a foot of ice. ETA: I suppose one difference here is SLP is weak sauce. Not the same as a 1-2 punch where there's a "wake" left behind or the exiting system does weird things over the Atl and screws up the approach of the second. This whole thing is pretty unusual. I can't really think of any event similar in the last 15 years. May be "ok" to expect anomalous results. Good times.

Have 30 seconds to kill. Nothing to add. All covered. My concern right now is now that some models are spitting out maybe a foot or so, now anything less than 12" is an epic meltdown disaster. Amirite? AMIRITE?!?!

I'm not sure we'll get full agreement on being on the good side for bit. One or more models will likely irritate everyone every 6 hours. Should be a blast in here as time ticks and nerves twitch.

This is true. No doubt. This time is actually different (famous last words). The moisture plume is happening. Basically a 100% chance. No waiting for cyclogenesis or any other complicated synoptic progression. It's just relatively warm moist air, weak impulse running the southern stream from the desert sw, and a blocked mass of cold to our north. Almost entirely isentropic upglide/overrunning precip until the end when weak slp forms and books east. The tricky part is the unavoidable fact that the qpf stripe will be divided between all ptypes. Keep rooting for confluence and suppression to not get pushed around like the chiefs o line all night tonight.

Rgem looks like its setting up a nice round 2 at the end. If we were 120 hours out and saw all the models showing what they're showing now, not a single person here would feel good about it at all. Seeing 0z hold or improve is pretty sweet. Only 72 hours out now.

Gfs was right there too just wobbled north. Cmc wobbled south with confluence and cold to our north

It can be a sizeable event without being wound up. It's all about falling on the right side of the boundary and under the qpf bullseye. Precip totals can easily be .5 - 1" or even more. It's a legit moisture feed.

Looks like since every threat is 1-3 days away...your back for a while lol since you don't do the 10 day track fail thing anymore Posting is tough during the week. Sporadic at best until it starts happening. Won't know for 3-4 weeks how good or fail it is but odds are nearly completely stacked in our favor for chances. Impressive. No locks though. Fail is always on the table

Not only is then icon solid, better setup already showing for something to run the gauntlet from the SE down the line. Stable confluence is such a pretty and welcome sight man. Takes some of the freakout potential away. Which is always in short supply.... heh

It's not a good broad swath of cold snow setup in this case. Gotta walk the line to get the goods. If we were in the teens and 20s it would be congrats Raleigh

Nah, I would never poke and prod anyone for sadistic pleasure.... wait a minute... I was thinking of someone else.

Take a look at 10M winds. Beginning of the slug is SE then E surface flow. Flips norteast while it's still going strong. Sweet run

Unanimous trend with better confluence to our N and NE out over the atlantic right before it really matters everywhere I look. Will def help fight the good fight with midlevel temps.

Still a shift better than 18z. Give it some time and md/pa border will be fringed and you'll jack. Terrible superbowl. Very disappointed. I wanted a shootout with a deciding final drive. Instead I mixed waaay early and dryslotted.

NAM improved mid level temps early in the run. Everything is converging on a "less sweaty" progression

A few more tics south like the 18z euro control and suppression talk will enter the chat

Thru D7 is obviously distracting right now but macro gefs mean look d7-15 is sweet AF. No big storm signal yet. I'd be good with 3 6-10" and a side order of ice tho.

I'm expecting mix. Practically every time our area is bisected by mix, my yard mixes too. 850s will rip out of the sw for a time while precipitating until flow flips n w/slp to our east. 850 line isnt down by RIC. I usually mix with the midlevel look I'm seeing. Havent looked at why the euro is a good but colder. I'll just blindly hug that for now

I'm trying really hard to not get too excited. Love the damn setup. It's the next best thing to a miller A and far better than any miller b, clipper, or anything else. Breadth of the shield is the main feature keeping me grounded. Wobbles aren't done and the latitude spread on the N and S side is narrow af in the big picture. Our biggest fear with stuff like this is surface and midlvl temps. We're slowly winning that. Need to win qpf max next

The upper level eyeball northeast of Maine on the gfs is new and why we could win round 2 also. Gfs is watching out for us it seems.

If these looks hold thru say tues night. We might actually be in for a low stress event because with this kind of setup, surprises are even less likely to happen at short range than the majority of our winter events

Subtle shift towards more confluent flow overhead on the gfs. Everything is ticking colder still. Hard not to like that. Would be nice to have enough room to lose a couple ticks N leading in without causing a civil war here.

If some people want to learn what to track upstairs, track h5 vort panels run over run in the short range. There's A LOT of stuff coming at us over the next 7 days. The wed deal is just the first ripple of many approaching from the desert sw and gulf. Focus on the closest piece. Keep it simple. I knew the icon was going to be colder and further south by comparing h5 vort panels and not surface plots. What is coming first is not a defined shortwave. It's a southern stream moisture feed with impulses zipping along. Look at the panel below. See the mottled orange stripe running W-E in the midwest? That's the war zone between precipitation/moisture and cold air. The 12z icon run was further north and heights were aligned less flat and more sw-ne. This is why it was warmer and rainier. It allowed the cold boundary to drift northward as the energy approached. We want heights horizontal/flat overhead and to our north. It's basically acting like a wall from allowing warmth/rain to win. Confluence. It's a fine line here between all outcomes but there's really not a lot of time left to miss precipitation entirely. We just want to be on the winning side as much as possible.

Makes you wonder if it can actually get worse right? [winter of 2012-13 enters chat....nude]