Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Looks like it shifted east to me but then I guess hooked west or maybe is confused with the double low?
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Not a good run at all https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023031112&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full
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Euro slightly north and 1 mb stronger than last run at hour 48. Looks further east and 1 mb weaker at hour 60
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Looking at too many model runs will drive you crazy lol. If euro looks like gfs I’d say we have a real shot, if not it’s looking pretty bleak.
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Yes it’s usually too warm and dry hence why I like to use it to increase confidence if it shows something positive.
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It’s not perfect but the RGEM usually isn’t way off and if anytung is usually too warm so it’s a good model to rule in snow chances if it shows somehung good.
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Don’t care too much about it’s thermals but the east track is a problem, without heavy banding NYC has no chance.
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Yea and in this storm NYC realistically needs 2 inch plus qpf for something big because at least half of it is likely rain.
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An inch of liquid still woulda been a foot of snow if we had a cold airmass meh or got a track like this in Jan/Feb.
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12z Ukie not on board for nyc snow, gfs kind of on its own right now.
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Cmc seems to be focusing on eastern low, gfs on the western one. Could go either way.
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Cmc not gonna do it for us this run.
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Seems stuck on hour 60 but also has two lows now.
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Yes as I said last night we want tucked in this time around. Can’t worry about rain if we don’t have a storm.
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Have to see rest of 12z suite to see if a new trend or a fluke.
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If the western low is dominant it will be game on. If not it’ll stink.
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The frames after that get even better to the coast, big improvement.
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Seems to have two lows, hope the western low becomes the dominant one.
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Gfs looks west and stronger this run to me.
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287 traditionally has been the classic divider but this winter it’s been 84.
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Yea for my area probably can give it until 12z tomorrow as long as it doesn’t trend worse since some models have me really close to several inches but I’m tired of being on the edge and usually being on the edge means more rain less snow. Anywhere southeast of I84 feels like the tropics this winter.
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My towel is in my hand if we don’t see major changes by 12z today I’m about to throw it.
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Well guess this outdid even my own low expectations since no accumulation at all.
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RGEM looks slightly improved to me but I’d say we are running out of time for only slight improvements.
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Don’t want to be negative but relying on long range NAM for hope is likely to lead to dissapointment.
