Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Definitely conservative near the coast but I could see why given the winter and the setup.
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I'd def rather have the Canadian models and Euro in my camp than the GFS/Ukie. However I agree with you about SWFE and late north trends so agree not to be too hopeful yet.
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Can you post their map?
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Looking at the run the best dynamics on the Ukie run go into NW NJ and the HV. The city is only 0.2 qpf through 12z Tue. So some of it lack of cold air but some of it is where does that initial heavy moisture focus.
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Ukie way warmer for Monday-Tuesday. Another model like gfs I would put low stock in though but potentially a more amped up/ warmer solution is still on the table.
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Thanks for the analysis.
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Hopefully the stuff in pa can make it here without drying out.
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The gfs looks on its own planet for next weekend as well.
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This has already been the best storm of the winter, giant flakes sticking right away.
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I don’t disagree with you. I think we are on the same page here. The Canadian models on board is a huge flag that this is a real threat for accumulating snow down to NYC. Gfs should be of low consideration right now unless any other models trend to it.
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Huge flakes now the type you usually see when about to change to rain yet it’s 25.
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I can tell you whoever can avoid sleet with that initial surge if moisture will do well because there’s gonna be some heavy waa snow just north of the sleet.
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It had been showing a significant storm with rain NYC/LI and 6+ snow HV to NE. Now the gfs is the only model that looks like that. All the others mostly show a 2-5 inch event everywhere.
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That map looks so different from pivotal.
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Gfs just trended significantly for Mon/Tue, probably still will cave further in the next few runs.
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Light snow here.
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The Monday storm has definitely severely weakened but I’d imagine we’d all take a 2-4 inch snow to sleet event over rain.
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I mean 33/31 temp onset of precip is usually favorable for snow?
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Looks about the same?
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Looking at the soundings they don’t seem to totally match the precip type maps unfortunately.
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Boston gets 1.5 inches changing to rain on RGEM. This could be some bust there.
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12z RGEM is some cutoff across the city, north bronx close to 4 inches, jfk 1. This one is going to be a tight forecast.
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No not where I am. I don’t think anyone in the city is seeing snow right now?
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Hrrrrr has snow to the north and south, shuts out nyc today.
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Yea could be noticeable difference between jfk and cpk in this setup but also may not be, all depends where the gradient sets up. Reminds me of the old days where it seems it may set up in or near the city.
