Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Definitely still possible to see some front end frozen well inland although with the east wind situation again probably gonna be hard within 50 miles of the coast.
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I feel like we go through this every winter with the big expectations and then the doom and gloom. The reality is it doesn't usually snow much before January in our region, it almost always warms up sometime around Christmas and it snows from time to time but not that often in this area. I don't think winter is over.
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And then it just stops when it hits NYC and points NE?
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I can’t totally read the Ukie map but based on the 0 line verbatim looks like snow for NJ at hour 144 so maybe that’s where it’s coming from?
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Must be a mistake unless there is a storm between hour 144 and 168? Pivotal showing no accumulation in the same region.
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From congrats Chicago to congrats Buffalo is some progress. Probably won't matter for us but we continue to track.
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At this point I think the odds of an I95 snowstorm are pretty low but just hoping for front end or back end snow.
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CMC very improved
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Ok I'l give it was about a noticeable east shift but we still need about another 500 miles.
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It came a little east but still not close for our region.
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Not really seeing any major changes yet.
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NYC metro seasonal snowfall contest
Winterweatherlover replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
NYC 20" ISP 22" EWR 19" SWF 30" MMU 25" -
Bored so predictions: Better chance of NYC getting 1 inch of snow or hitting 60 degrees between now and 12/25?
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Need euro or cmc to look different by 12z tomorrow or this one is over imo.
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I can’t think of a time the gfs has ever won when it’s been on its own.
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I think at this point you’d have to take the gfs solution and run with it. Heavy burst of snow to rain back to snow. Way preferable to the more likely outcome of another windswept rainstorm.
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That probably won’t happen. It usually moderates especially near the coast as we get closer to the event.
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Not good that cmc held serve.
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I don’t know what the gfs is doing looks nothing other models or it’s last run.
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I’d give it until tomorrows 12Z runs before totally throwing in the towel. Something like a secondary forming or CAD being stronger than modeled could still give parts of the sub forum (especially interior) some frozen precip.
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Random question but figured this would be a good place to ask does anyone know of any sites where one can bet on the weather?
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Not always I've definitely seen the models be too overamped in this range but 2 straight runs plowing into the lakes from the 2 models I trust the most is a pretty bleak sign.
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This is a really great point. I know we often say when it's a cutter the solution locks in a week out but snowstorms always come down to the wire but what you said is very true. Whether a low goes over Chicago Detriot or Pittsburgh it really makes no difference to us and we won't notice. The GFS is still like 700 miles SE of the other models but who really cares in this subforum.
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The best way to do that is move to places like Northern Maine Adirondacks Minnesota etc. NYC is not a good spot for this.
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Yea I think I read the other day sometimes you need a huge cutter to break the pattern. I still wouldn't be surprised if the storm next week ultimately transfers to a secondary similar to today not that it would really help many people on here.
