Winterweatherlover
-
Posts
1,582 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
-
Looks like it flips to mix/rain for all of the metro area but the south shore is the only place that may have mixing issues during initial precip burst.
-
Agree I don’t think the storm will wash away itself although with temps and sun angle probably won’t be much left by late afternoon tomorrow.
-
I don’t see this being a last minute disaster scenario.
-
Yea I think expect 1-3 inches for the City. Anything more would be a pleasant surprise.
-
The NAM is 1-3 on the front end for the metro. It does have sleet to Orange County and rain to Westchester. It could be right but also the RGEM has been so steady and colder that I’m not taking the NAM too seriously.
-
The Ukmet lol
-
I just looked at the NAM and I don’t even know what to think of it. It’s been such a lousy model but sometimes it’s right in these scenarios.
-
It’s not my favorite type of storm by any means but it’s more interesting than all rain.
-
The only way CPK is less than an inch is it becomes a complete bust either in terms of sleet fest or very dry and white rain. Either is still possible but unlikely.
-
I am almost sure sleet will mix in at some point at LGA and likely even well north of LGA. Hopefully it can dump before that.
-
They started very conservative and now almost seem bullish with totals.
-
The HRRR usually did pretty well with winter storms last year inside of 18 hours so that's probably the model I'd go with once we hit tomorrow and of course paying attention to the most important stuff like temperature, dewpoint, and radar.
-
It's a terrible model lately, similar to NAM it shows very different things run to run. However I believe the HRRR, GFS, and Euro are currently the only models that look decent for NYC/Coast. I looked again and RGEM is ok too. I'm defining decent as 2+ inches.
-
Pretty awful honestly, it's not a good model but it is a bit concerning multiple models are cutting back this close to the event. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
-
Slight tick north on CMC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
-
I can see why upton went conservative, the trends are not great for the city and coast although some models are still cold so going to be nowcasting situation.
-
CMC looks warmer https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
-
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=123&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Going to be a battle between the high to the north and that strong low. Forced south, gfs picking up on the blocking https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
-
GFS impressive NW of the city, tight gradient in the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs
-
True it looks about the same as all along, I guess I was hoping it would trend a little wetter like the other models, it does also reintroduce sleet into parts of the city this run. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
-
Ok fair point https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=qpf_acc-imp&m=rdps https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rdps
-
Unfortunately drier and warmer will probably go together in this case. The RGEM I see is dry and now reintroduces sleet into the metro area. My guess is the warmer models are not giving the metro area great banding.
-
NAM warm RGEM dry HRRR lovely guess we’ll be nowcasting
-
Tough forecast. Better than boring.
-
Tough forecast but hard to see less than 3 where you are.
