Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Not saying this is anything close but remember November 2018? Can definitely dump in a short amount of time with the right setup.
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Yea I noticed that, is that because of the confluence?
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Yea the lack of cold air is definitely a concern here. I certainly don't feel confident in wintry precip but could also see it happening if everything aligns well. At least this storm is trackable inside of 96 hours for the immediate metro area which I can't remember any other storms being this winter.
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Ok yea i remember there were two similar storms that winter so they kind of blur together.
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I was actually on north shore of LI for that storm at school at Stony Brook. It was all sleet I think.
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Not bad at all temp wise during heaviest precip. Of course it's just one run.
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12Z Euro severely weakens the primary and develops a secondary quickly off the NJ coast. Thats what we would need to see a more wintry solution.
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Euro backs Ukie for Monday-Tuesday. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Oh so similar setup then but I'm guessing way stronger secondary. I remember the storm well but not the synoptics.
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Wasn't that more of a coastal hugger?
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A few years ago the NAM was a good short range model but I can't remember the last time it had a win when it was showing something different from other models.
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Looks like decent consensus for about 0.5 inch tomorrow. I know some models show a bit more but that seems realistic.
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Either this model is smoking some good stuff (very likely) or people will be surprised on Monday (even if some of it is sleet thats still a lot of frozen precip). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Actually Boston seems to be getting less and less snow on Monday on recent models. Not sure why but I'm guessing the initial snow is not making it as far east and a flatter secondary.
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The immediate city provably true but I’m still not ruling out 1+ inch NW and NE suburbs and maybe even north shore LI. We’ll see. As always depends if it comes in disorganized or like a wall. A wall can dump an inch even if it flips to rain in an hour.
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The 12z RGEM has precip starting in nyc while the low is still over Western Great Lakes region. That’s actually probably better than if it started when the low was closer to Buffalo. We don’t know if it’s right with early onset precip but that’s what you need for frozen precip with a cutter.
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The storm on 3/4 really looks like a possible monster for those on the right side of the gradient.
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I think gfs is too warm on Monday because even RGEM starts nyc snow. RGEM has a slight warm bias so it’s a good model to consider for likelihood of frozen precip.
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I still don't know how much of the 10:1 on the Ukie is snow vs sleet but if its really snow then it has the snow way south of the other models.
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CMC/GFS both show snow now for next weekend.
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Yea maybe. I'm not sure which event will be more interesting or if either will be interesting at all but I see what you are saying about cold and all snow being better.
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0Z GFS/CMC didn't trend worse for 2/28 at least.
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So how many runs until this turns into a cutter? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022318&fh=204&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
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Yea although reading some of the comments here you'd think north of I84 and SNE has 100 inches of snow on the winter, they haven't had it much better than us thus far. Obviously this storm could change that if it verifies as currently depicted. But really I think anyone not highly elevated and south of I90 thus far has had <10 inches snow this winter.
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Terrible trend https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022306&fh=138&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h-imp&m=gfs vs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022318&fh=126&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h-imp&m=gfs
