Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Sleeting now, for this winter that's exciting.
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Yea I was thinking this. Absolutely nothing has gone right this winter.
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12Z Euro now showing ice for the interior on Wed but it's the coldest model currently. It seems to cut off the warm surge and develop a secondary. GFS in the 60s for everyone so obviously some disagreement here.
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Agree this is real snow verbatim with these temps obviously this could still change a lot. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023021712&fh=198&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023021712&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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12Z Euro still has snow for next Saturday.
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Being warm and humid in February is getting ridiculous, I'm all for a cool spring.
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Yea we've seen this all winter, models show front end snow, then northern stream gets stronger and stronger and ends up all rain. You also need actual cold air to get good front end snow opportunities, the boundary layer is always going to warm fast near the coast in these situations so without an artic airmass it's usually doomed.
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If it snowed even 1/3 as much as it snows on the long term GFS we'd probably be above average snowfall by now. With that said I do think March could be a little more interesting but then theres a part of me that says we've seen this tease so many times in the long term medium range.
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0Z RGEM has ice Sunday night for NW NJ and parts of the HV. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023021000&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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At this point I'm rooting for it to stay south and avoid rain but I could see up around I84 where you'd want a north trend. The 12z CMC isn't actually that far off from probably being a little interesting north of NYC/SNE if it bombed out a bit sooner. The air mass is pretty horrendous though even for places North and West.
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Maybe inland, I don’t see how the coast can get snow in this setup without drastic changes in the setup.
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Really bad timing with the storm coming up the coast just as the cold air retreats, even 12 hours earlier and it could be a different story but this is winter 2023.
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Depends on track/strength, it's not as simple as lack of cold air since DC gets snow on this run but definitely will need to thread the needle hard with this one.
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It would be odd for it to snow in DC/Baltimore be rain in Philly/NYC and then snow in Eastern CT/RI/SE Mass like GFS is showing. Not saying it's impossible but it just looks odd. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023020718&fh=141&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs
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18Z GFS brings the weekend storm back north, what a tease lol.
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Euro is a little NW although still not too close for our area. I guess still worth keeping an eye on tracking this for another day or so.
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It may definitely be wrong but the look in the gfs at hour 132 is the best look we’ve had all winter.
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12Z Euro has a coastal hugger on 2/12
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Reminds me of 2006, we had basically no snow all winter and one record breaking snowstorm when I was away in Florida.
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Looks like 2/11-2/14 period has a small chance, that’s our small window.
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I’m less not buying it because other models don’t have it and more so because it’s 240 hours out. The lack of cold air gonna likely be a problem for snow all month but a 982 coastal would definitely make things interesting.
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Agree as I’ve gotten older I don’t really like extreme cold but know it’s necessary to have some sustained cold to get snow.
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I’m tired of the anti winter narrative too, just forecast don’t comment your opinions on what is “nice” vs “not nice” weather.
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After this weekend the next week or two looks very warm, after that maybe it's a bit more reasonable but still going to take a miracle to see snow.
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It was real pretty this morning for a few hours, now its basically all gone already. RIP Winter 2022-2023.
