Winterweatherlover
-
Posts
1,582 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
-
GFS a little better with the secondary but the primary kills our snow chances, congrats NE.
-
Same impression I have. I don't have data but it just seems to often show whacky solutions and be wrong in the last two winters. Btw it cut back a lot on snow for Sat it looks like (no surprise).
-
Yea most likely the blocking will just mean 30s and rain instead of 50s and rain. I def think you are in better shape north shore of LI than the city is with this one for some front end frozen but that's about it. I'd probably want to be NE of a line from around White Plains to maybe north shore of Suffolk County to see any meaningful frozen precip with this. The HV is a wild card because depends on the mid levels, they could do well with this or could end up a complete sleetfest there.
-
Euro and CMC both cut inland on 3/4 so not seeing any signs of real change. I know you mentioned the 3/10-3/20 period being the chance so hope so.
-
Wouldn't be surprised if by storm time it's mixing issues for Boston and 12-15 for NNE the way this winter is going but hope this one doesn't trend that extreme.
-
Yea I was a bit more optimistic when the models were trending south but now that they are back north its pretty much over for Tuesday south of I84 and west of the CT border, we've seen this song and dance so many times I'm expecting another 50-100 mile north tick from where everything is right now. Maybe we'll be surprised but no reason to think otherwise.
-
Yea Mid March is ok but we'll basically have a one week window.
-
Pretty terrible for Brooklyn, Queens, SI, and Manhattan. I guess not that terrible everywhere else, what a gradient near the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022312&fh=144&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ecmwf_full
-
Euro is terrible near the coast. Here we go…
-
I heard somewhere Ukie counts sleet as snow, is that true? If so that could explain the higher totals on 2/28.
-
Ukie looks good for 2/28. I don’t think the Ukie is that good of a model but interesting to see what Euro looks like.
-
Definitely. A lot of times 1-3 inches becomes 1-3 flakes to sleet to rain. Sometimes it does actually work out though. We are all I think somewhat jaded by a winter where it has not worked out once.
-
3/4 looks great on the GFS, just 9 days away.
-
Agree I think I once heard a saying that if the primary gets north of Ohio its usually over for NYC and points south. I seem to be in the minority here though over being ok/borderline excited for a possible 1-3 inch event, it's been that bad of a winter. I could also see how this could turn into just sleet to rain though.
-
Verbatim looks improved over its 0Z run. The front end snow backed SW a bit, has 1-3 inches for most of LI and immediately north of the city. The low north of Toronto and a flatter secondary is not a good look though.
-
Such a fine line because we want secondary to develop and blocking to make it not hug the coast but if it’s too Far East and squashed we will have temp issues with a primary in the lakes. Miller bs are tough.
-
Yea secondary looks weak, east and meandering too which isn’t ideal. The snow looks all front end/swfe type setup this run
-
12z gfs looks good but definitely a tight gradient just to the south so hard to feel too confident.
-
How much snow did nyc get in the famous March 2018? I know the city got shafted a lot compared to other areas nearby.
-
I don’t think we can hit normal at this point at least NYC and south, climo is just too against this area in March. The northern suburbs to Boston could rake in a pattern like this if all goes well.
-
Would like to see cmc come on board for 2/28 before getting too hopeful as Canadian models have been good this winter.
-
I mean if its snow to 50 degrees and/or heavy rain then I agree but if it's snow to sleet to light rain/drizzle i'm ok with that. I guess in the latter scenario I'm assuming it doesn't all get washed away.
-
To be honest storms haven't been working out too well for Boston either this winter so I don't think we've had a lot of true SWFE events this winter. It's mostly been cutters. I agree an SWFE is not too great for us but 1-3 inches to mix to light rain would be way better than anything we've had.
-
In a potential gradient type pattern like this the differences between southern and northern parts of the subforum could be pretty huge in the next few weeks.
-
GFS/CMC both have a big storm next Saturday. Verbatim looks like snow to mix for the city but precip type doesn't matter this far out.
