Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Better well defined secondary this run it looks like. Would be kind of frustrating to waste this with cold air at the start of the storm but I can see your snow to rain scenario being a possible outcome.
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I agree. Maybe isolated 6+ NW of I287.
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Map has 4-6”
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And the first WWA officially of the season has been issued for Southern Westchester and maybe Bergen and CT coast? Expect at least northern parts of the city to get one too.
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Keeps upping and upping. Meanwhile NAM has the city and even nearby suburbs mixing with sleet so we’ll see. NAM is bad but sometimes good with mid level warming.
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Euro not GFS level bad but trending in that direction. Surprised if the GFS is leading the way for once, oh well.
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That wasn't the case for the storm tomorrow but I know thats a rare oddity. I agree my gut feeling is this is going to end up too far north for us but hope I'm wrong. It's not even so much that the Ukie/GFS are north that worries me because those models are whacky but the fact the Euro and CMC are bumping north every run.
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Sounds reasonable. You have to pay to access that right?
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Very odd to feel like winter is starting at the end of February.
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I think at this point if JFK gets 1-2 inches it'd be a success. Upton has them getting a half an inch. These forecasts are so hard though because you never know if its going to go February 2008/November 2018 on us or it's going to end up a sleetfest changing to rain.
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Yea looking at their map I don’t even think anywhere in the city or north shore LI is getting an advisory yet.
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For now but the other models are ticking north. Hopefully the blocking can come through.
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3/4 storm Like: 12z cmc don’t like: gfs trending even more NW
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12z Cmc is 1-3 for the city and coast, looks like lighter precip and some mixing.
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Too low near the coast imo but can also understand why upton is being conservative and not model hugging.
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Likely overdone but verbatim warning level snow event from northern NYC on north.
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Unfortunately I can’t post a map right now maybe someone else can but I think you’re in central Westchester where kuchera map is 7-8 inches.
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Gfs pretty impressive for NYC and points north and west. I’m still kind of confused by why different models are showing such different qpf.
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Yea assuming the NAM is still good at that. We haven’t had a storm like this yet this winter to know.
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It’s an awful awful model lately but can sniff mid level warming at least in the past it was good for that.
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I live right at bronx/westchester border and can tell you the climo here is not the same as HPN but definitely closer to HPN than LGA so you’re thinking isn’t way off.
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Bronx zoo would be a good representation for bronx it’s right in the middle of borough basically. Although will say the NW bronx is a little less urban and probably has a climo more similar to southern Westchester than the very urban south bronx.
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Honestly this probably matters more than anything. Anyone NYC on north should wetbulb to 32 if precip is heavy enough. If it’s light garbage it’ll be white rain all night for anyone south of I80 latitude.
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Hard to see why it would be too dry given the temp contrasts north to south and placement of secondary formation being ideal for this region and the warm ocean waters.
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I could see 10:1 ratios north of NYC especially if it’s heavy enough. It should wet bulb down to 32 or even lower in some suburbs and it’s at night. Given what the RGEM just showed I’d say It’s NAM being the NAM.
