Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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I agree the changing to rain stinks but what are we gonna do, it’s our best chance to see any snow it sounds like before March unless something else pops up on the narrow 1/27-2/2 window.
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In a normal winter I’d agree, in this winter seeing an hour or two of snow falling from the sky would be something lol.
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CMC/Ukie/Euro all start NYC as snow for that one. The high to the north should support the possibility of frozen precip at the start. Still far out though.
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CMC trended toward the Euro with storm 2, looks decent for interior parts of the subforum and the coast gets a couple of inches before changeover. That one is still so far out could definitely trend (either better or worse).
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It is a little colder than 18z but only a little.
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0Z NAM still trolling.
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Winter isn't over yet.
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If the storm on 2/1 plays out the way the 18Z GFS is depicting I'd be ok with the rest of February being canceled.
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Hour 312 on the GFS, here comes our new fantasy storm.....
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18z nam in full blown trolling mode.
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Unfortunately I'd be surprised if the Euro is still showing the same thing tomorrow let alone by the end of the weekend.
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Kind of surprised the Euro is the model trolling us but Euro says you can keep dreaming next week especially inland https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023011912&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Euro looks like gives ULL snow on the backend on Monday, doubt it happens.
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Thats how the two storms for next week started as coastals that were too warm/marginal for the coast and now they are cutting well inland.
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I'm starting to think the only snow we may see this winter is the blue on the fantasy snow maps.
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NAM on it's own, storm 2 has a better chance of starting snow in/near NYC imo than storm 1 but either way both storms are going to be washouts.
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I still wouldn't totally rule out a half inch of snow to rain for the Wednesday event but not really sure what would be the excitement of that anyway.
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Hope we get a surprise storm after 1/27, we'll probably have about a five day window with cold air for something to pop up.
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GFS is basically a cutter now for storm 2 next week, even Buffalo flips to rain. Remember when this was a coastal on two models two days ago lol.
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It gets worse and worse, that gradient next week is pushing toward western Ulster/Sullivan. Even Orange county looks like mainly all rain with both storms.
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1/27 to 2/2 seems to be the window of cold air so hopefully we get a storm, cold and dry would be a waste.
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The NAM is usually over amped in the long range so while I don’t expect that to verify weirdly that’s interesting.
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Euro starts NYC area 30-32 for storm 2, I believe the more south storm 1 is the colder it will be at the start of storm 2 and the better chance of significant snow near the coast.
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ECM Crushes interior next week but coast gets some fun from storm 2. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023011812&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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In some ways it would actually stink if storm 2 next week was an inch of snow to heavy rain and that’s what blew the record.
