Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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I hope it works out but for me it's still a caution that the RGEM has never been on board and is still not really on board. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030618&fh=24&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=rdps
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Narrow cutoffs stink but nice to see the areas on the wrong side of the cutoff last week maybe cashing in.
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Yea suppression is more likely than a cutter with the first storm. Suppression for storm 1 shouldn't be terrible as it could pave the way for storm 2 as the Euro is showing. What we seem to absolutely not want is an amped up rainstorm for storm 1.
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Yea I get that. I don't want to minimize it, I hope it works out for your area.
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That's not really a hugger.
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One thing I don't love is even in a supposed great pattern coming up there seems to still be great lakes lows and I feel until we shake that it might be hard to get cold enough without threading the needle.
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I tend to think the "bullseye" with this will be 2 inches max and more likely coating to an inch. NAM over juiced as it usually is imo. Clippers usually dry out as they come east.
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Yep no agreement between models or even run to run agreement in the same model. Agree this won't be sorted out until at least mid week.
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Ukie must be surpressed for storm 1 because it hits Southern NJ coast. Models completely all over the place https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030612&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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My interpretation: GFS really strong with storm 1 so storm 2 is squashed to the southeast.
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I’m so confused by this pattern I guess the models are too.
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Agree like the look of offshore lows, just need one of them to trend stronger and west. Not a bad look at all this far out. I was focused on cmc, just looked at gfs and the first wave is too far west for us.
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I could be naive but not too worried about that with this blocking, more worried about secondary being flat/suppressed.
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Not necessarily but needs to be strong and close to the coast especially if it’s Miller B because that will initially pump warm air.
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It went from too far west to too Far East. It’s all over the place.
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12z cmc is what happens if the storm is too weak and too Far East, no dynamics and rain at the coast. Well mostly too Far East this run , it’s not weak.
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I like him pointing out the reasons it may not snow. It’s interesting to look at all angles. Plus if he’s quiet you know we might be looking at a legit threat.
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I mean he’s not wrong. Going to need a fairly strong storm in March to get it done but that’s usually the case.
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I totally agree.
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0.3 will tick cpk toward not breaking the record lol.
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If those models are correct someone in a narrow area is going to get a nice surprise but i still think those are overdone. RGEM never came on board for this.
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Models seem to have two waves now, one around 3/11 and a second stronger one around 3/13-3/14. A lot to sort out here.
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Must be rain at the immediate coast based on the snow map but doesn't really matter this far out. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030512&fh=144&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_024h-imp&m=ukmet
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Not really in my interpretation, this was 0Z, seems like it came west or at least is focusing on a different wave. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030500&fh=180&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps
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12z CMC cuts (I don't anticipate this being the outcome but presenting all possible solutions). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
