Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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I wish I could believe these models like the gfs and NAM. I really do but I can’t.
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I think the RGEM is too warm but if its right it has NYC already in the 40s when precip starts.
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It's possible, depends how far east the overrunning makes it.
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Definitely, if we had more cold and this storm track we'd just be getting a bunch of snow to ice to rain events, if we had this lack of cold and storms tracking offshore we'd be getting rain to heavy snow events.
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If NYC is going to get measurable snow it better be snowing by 1 pm tomorrow, if not no chance.
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It might be overdoing the warmth along the hudson but I'd expect it to be closer to reality than some of these other models. In all the recent storms I can remember it has done very well.
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Maybe it does well with inland storms and not as well with coastals? We wouldn't know since we haven't had any of the latter this winter.
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The WWA should be canceled for Rockland and Northern Westchester, I imagine Snowman19 would agree.
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I could see something like 3-5 inches just west of Middletown tomorrow but like less than an inch in Newburgh, thats just kind of how this winter has been going.
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It still shows accumulating snow to the north Bronx tomorrow, that model has really gotten a lot more whacky then it used to be.
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If the RGEM is right not unless you are well west of the Hudson.
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Steady as can be, this model is so good. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012418&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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I know the NAM is probably wrong, I just don't get how two models can look so different this close to an event.
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Honestly just laughuable differences NW of the city for a day out https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023012412&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=nam https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012412&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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I try to be open minded (not pessimistic or optimistic) I really do but everytime the RGEM has gone up against the NAM/GFS it has schooled them in this range. I'm not basing no snow in NYC on whats happened thus far this winter, i'm basing it on what models I trust most at this point. Hopefully we are miraculously surprised tomorrow.
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The RGEM is pretty ugly even inland tomorrow unless you have elevation, has less than an inch I87 on east up to Albany.
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Depends how we define score. A snowstorm no, an inch maybe.
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Agree nothing for tomorrow and Jan likely goes snowless for NYC. Next threat to avoid a snowless winter is 2/1 timeframe.
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Also have better chance of threading needle and getting snow with an active pattern rather than a dry one.
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No precip yet at 16Z on the RGEM.
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Evaporational cooling probably takes it down to 35-36. Depends how heavy it comes down. If its moderate-heavy should get 0.1 at least, if it's light no chance.
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The RGEM has LI in the 40s the whole storm, it might be a bit too warm but I think you get the sense how this is going..... NYC 37 is the lowest it gets on the RGEM.
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Yea the 10:1 map has 0.1 inch but I wouldn't use that for this storm. Kuchera is nothing on the 0Z run. Window for snow is 18z to 0Z and at 18Z it's 37 degrees in NYC.
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Just trust the RGEM, it doesn't tease, it's been mainly all rain for NYC all along.
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I'm only paying attention to the RGEM anymore, every other model is horrible and flip flops every few runs.
