Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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That’s a good point and beyond even the gfs I can’t think of too many storms that ended up a coast snowstorm that didn’t have several runs of models showing OTS. Id be pretty surprised if either storm next week is a coast snowstorm although wouldn’t rule out some frozen precip to start especially NW of the city.
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It even snowed on cape cod over the weekend. It takes a lot going wrong to not get any snow all winter even in a bad pattern but NYC may find a way the way this winter is going.
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The 12z gfs did shift east but it’s really now just in line with other models. Honestly the model agreement of the two storms next week is pretty good right now and they look almost identical except the second one starts out a little colder.
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Agree that one has the best chance although more likely warm/wet than frozen.
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Ukie is so flat and far southeast that the NW parts of the subforum barely get any precip, thats what it would probably take for the coast to get snow in this pattern.
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Ukie has snow on Monday. Came Southeast. Didn't expect that which makes me wonder what Euro will do.
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The early week storm looks to originate in the south unless you think the models are correcting toward establishing a more dominant primary low in the lakes?
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At least the northeast ski areas would finally get replenished https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011800&fh=222&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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I don't expect wintry weather for the immediate metro with storm 1, but I think the NW parts of the subforum have a chance. Storm 2 I'm not even going to begin to guess precip type this far out.
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0Z CMC is a coastal hugger, only the gfs has a low in the lakes. Starting to think coastal hugger or slightly inland runner is most likely outcome here.
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There are a lot of storm threats but hopefully one of them is cold enough.
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The Sunday-Monday storm is still pretty different than what we've been seeing (cutters and rain to Montreal) at least as of now the NW parts of the subforum are still in play with that one.
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The coast's chance is maybe 1/26, CMC/Euro both show it but so far out.
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Looking at todays 12z runs I'd feel pretty good if I lived near Albany for Monday but also know it could trend toward Minnesota.
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I see that as well. Interested to see what the 12Z euro shows.
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12Z CMC trolling today (has 2 storms for our region). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011712&fh=228&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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This is probably the storm the CMC now has as a hit. The CMC is a little inside the benchmark so if the Euro and CMC met toward the middle it might be a needle threader. Obviously a longshot.
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CMC now shows a coastal next Monday like Euro had been showing, it's still rain for the coast though, looks good for interior.
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The other models have an inland low so of course they'd be rain. It would absolutely be threading the needle but if the Euro depicition of a sub 1000 low tracking off shore is right cold air shouldn't be a big problem once the storm is cranking.
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ECM has now shown a coastal storm 4 straight runs for next Sunday-Monday timeframe. Obviously I don't trust anything this far out but this is the best look we've had in a while from the best model.
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Looks like some wintry weather may return to the interior parts of the subforum this week. The coast just seems such a lost cause unless the Euro is magically right with a coastal next Sunday (and even that looks very borderline cold enough for the coast).
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18Z GFS warm with system 1 but honestly it looks nothing like either the Euro or the CMC. No cutter but a weak wave tracking across PA.
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Personally I'd prefer it like this, at least I'm not losing sleep staying up for the Euro for rain events. I don't know if the models are getting better or the pattern is just so horrible that they haven't even been able to tease much this winter. That's why I'm curious what happens with the storm Thu-Fri to see if the models still show something interesting inside 144 hours.
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There are finally some threats to track at least but still kind of fantasy range, although the storm for late next week is at least trackable for now.
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Euro/CMC/GFS all have >3 inches of snow northwest of I287 in the next 240 hours CMC/GFS have >3 inches of snow from the city north in the next 240 hours. We'll see if winter is coming back or models are teasing.
