Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Honestly this threat is probably the best look Eastern CT and Eastern LI have had this winter, almost every model except the gfs seems to get precip to the twin forks. Admittedly I'm probably paying attention to this more than I normally would because of how horrible this winter is.
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Hard to see NYC going 0 snow with such a warm and dynamic ocean just to our right. Whether it hooks this weekends storm west or not, eventually one of those storms in the atlantic is going to be a hit. The ocean influence can destroy winter precip on the coast but can also be a savior, just need one big hit.
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12Z Euro actually getting real close for Eastern LI https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2023011212&fh=72
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12Z run went warmer, these setups sometimes work out for decent front end frozen in the interior parts of our region, rarely on the coast unless there is a true artic airmass in place.
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You don't see this verifying lol? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011018&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Same as a kid I remember bare ground in the city and once you hit Westchester there was snow cover and by the tappan zee significant snowcover. Thats why I always thought the rain/snow line sat near the city in most storms. I think now with the new climo the boundary layer rain/snow line seems to have moved NW to Orange/Putnam and points NW. The coast definitely cashed in bigtime early 2010s from all those strong coastals.
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Doesn't get more threading the needle than this for most of the subforum. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023011018&fh=225&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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It's definitely a long shot but rather too far east than too far west at this range.
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Seems we haven't had a much snowier season in several winters now but I guess its balancing out for the early 2010s.
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Yea the same pattern in February should be ok as the atlantic would be colder. I'm not saying big snow but at least should be more interesting.
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Was December really that bad though? Verbatim snow in NYC was low but the pattern wasn't too bad, just some near misses.
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Looks like CMC lost the backend wave Sunday-Monday, I'm not surprised.
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Amazing how far into the Canada the rain gets.
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Its got a chance but would be extremely thread the needle and would probably favor the catskills to New England region. I don't really care that the gfs doesn't show it but I'd think it's more of a real threat if the other models hold onto it 24 hours from now.
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I agree still two months left of meterological winter, it will snow at some point.
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December wasn't that bad of a pattern, just a lot of bad luck near the coast but places in the NW parts of the subforum did decently.
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I cant remember a winter where we've gone this many weeks without any real threat and nothing on the horizon anytime soon. At least the models are getting better I guess at not getting our hopes up.
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Need a sub 1000 low tracking to the southeast and ideally a high in place (although not absolutely essential in January).
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Its a long shot for sure especially I95 corridor and points southeast.
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The 12Z CMC is further SE than the 12z GFS.
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Precip type doesn't really matter this far out but it's rain to snow verbatim for the city. Also as another poster said would be snow for some of subforum at least, but it's not far off from snow to the coast. I don't want to overanalyze though because the gfs is the only model that even has a storm on 1/6 but my point is we are seeing chances within 10 days and not just non stop torch.
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GFS with a snow threat 1/6 CMC with a snow threat 1/9 As I said two days ago the pattern doesn't look that horrendous for January after the middle of this week.
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Wow urban heating at its finest, what storm was that?
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Considering it only hit 70 in January 3 times in the 1900s, if it hit 70 twice in three years that would be kind of scary.
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Thats borderline ok for snow chances in NYC in January and def ok for snow chances north and west.
