Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Need euro or cmc to look different by 12z tomorrow or this one is over imo.
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I can’t think of a time the gfs has ever won when it’s been on its own.
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I think at this point you’d have to take the gfs solution and run with it. Heavy burst of snow to rain back to snow. Way preferable to the more likely outcome of another windswept rainstorm.
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That probably won’t happen. It usually moderates especially near the coast as we get closer to the event.
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Not good that cmc held serve.
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I don’t know what the gfs is doing looks nothing other models or it’s last run.
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I’d give it until tomorrows 12Z runs before totally throwing in the towel. Something like a secondary forming or CAD being stronger than modeled could still give parts of the sub forum (especially interior) some frozen precip.
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Random question but figured this would be a good place to ask does anyone know of any sites where one can bet on the weather?
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Not always I've definitely seen the models be too overamped in this range but 2 straight runs plowing into the lakes from the 2 models I trust the most is a pretty bleak sign.
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This is a really great point. I know we often say when it's a cutter the solution locks in a week out but snowstorms always come down to the wire but what you said is very true. Whether a low goes over Chicago Detriot or Pittsburgh it really makes no difference to us and we won't notice. The GFS is still like 700 miles SE of the other models but who really cares in this subforum.
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The best way to do that is move to places like Northern Maine Adirondacks Minnesota etc. NYC is not a good spot for this.
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Yea I think I read the other day sometimes you need a huge cutter to break the pattern. I still wouldn't be surprised if the storm next week ultimately transfers to a secondary similar to today not that it would really help many people on here.
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Yes we seem to get more snow chances/snow in March in recent years than in December.
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I actually think this December has been better than some recent past ones. A lot of northern and western parts of this subforum have already seen 3 snow events. The snow did make it into NYC and the immediate suburbs last Sunday. I can't remember the last winter it snowed much in or near NYC before Christmas.
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WhileIt's not looking promising I am a bit surprised by how many people have decided the outcome is determined 6-7 days out.
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12/15 - 12/16 Coastal/Winter Storm & Observations
Winterweatherlover replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Just a miserable storm been 42 and raining and wind for 24 hours now. -
The GFS didn't really cave in todays storm until 12 hours out so idk if I'd rely on that.
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I agree it's not great to be in the jackpot 7 days out but if the low was out halfway in the Atlantic I'd say we have a long way to go. Rarely do storms that are shown ramming into the great lakes end up trending to snow along or near I95 but realistically we are far enough out where I'd say give this another day before throwing in the towel.
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It may be too early to say anything is trending. I'm not feeling great about this one but its still far out.
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Yea it's actually below freezing the whole storm from the city and points NW.
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Ok after looking at the latest CMC/Euro runs I think I was wrong rain is a bigger concern than OTS. Having the gfs as the only model remotely close to what most of this subforum wants is not comforting.
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GFS OTS CMC rain (was OTS at 12Z) So yes a lot still on the table here.
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986 off the Carolina coast still big storm potential but looks mainly headed OTS this run.
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Wave 1 is a coastal scraper on the 0Z GFS we'll see if there is a wave 2
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12/15 - 12/16 Coastal/Winter Storm & Observations
Winterweatherlover replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
I still think it's a little unusual for a non fall/spring storm. At this time of year a coastal hugger usually buries places like northern parts of our subforum to Albany. I guess the combo of the cutter in the lakes and lack of a truly cold antecedent atmosphere made this elevation dependent.
