Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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The WWA should be canceled for Rockland and Northern Westchester, I imagine Snowman19 would agree.
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I could see something like 3-5 inches just west of Middletown tomorrow but like less than an inch in Newburgh, thats just kind of how this winter has been going.
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It still shows accumulating snow to the north Bronx tomorrow, that model has really gotten a lot more whacky then it used to be.
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If the RGEM is right not unless you are well west of the Hudson.
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Steady as can be, this model is so good. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012418&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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I know the NAM is probably wrong, I just don't get how two models can look so different this close to an event.
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Honestly just laughuable differences NW of the city for a day out https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023012412&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=nam https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012412&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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I try to be open minded (not pessimistic or optimistic) I really do but everytime the RGEM has gone up against the NAM/GFS it has schooled them in this range. I'm not basing no snow in NYC on whats happened thus far this winter, i'm basing it on what models I trust most at this point. Hopefully we are miraculously surprised tomorrow.
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The RGEM is pretty ugly even inland tomorrow unless you have elevation, has less than an inch I87 on east up to Albany.
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Depends how we define score. A snowstorm no, an inch maybe.
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Agree nothing for tomorrow and Jan likely goes snowless for NYC. Next threat to avoid a snowless winter is 2/1 timeframe.
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Also have better chance of threading needle and getting snow with an active pattern rather than a dry one.
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No precip yet at 16Z on the RGEM.
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Evaporational cooling probably takes it down to 35-36. Depends how heavy it comes down. If its moderate-heavy should get 0.1 at least, if it's light no chance.
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The RGEM has LI in the 40s the whole storm, it might be a bit too warm but I think you get the sense how this is going..... NYC 37 is the lowest it gets on the RGEM.
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Yea the 10:1 map has 0.1 inch but I wouldn't use that for this storm. Kuchera is nothing on the 0Z run. Window for snow is 18z to 0Z and at 18Z it's 37 degrees in NYC.
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Just trust the RGEM, it doesn't tease, it's been mainly all rain for NYC all along.
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I'm only paying attention to the RGEM anymore, every other model is horrible and flip flops every few runs.
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Yes this, additionally the overrunning comes in late morning and would hold down temps for a while if we were snowing. If we miss it the temp will probably be close to 40 by the time precip arrives after all full day of warming.
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I'm sure it's happened but to be honest I can't remember any. Usually these storms only work out for front end snow when temps start in the 20s, otherwise it's an hour or two of non accumulating junk and then rain.
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18Z RGEM now shows a tiny bit of snow for Wed in NYC, the 0.2 inches it is showing would save the record.
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RGEM seems superior to every model lately.
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Still mostly rain with occasional flakes mixed in. Wed looks terrible now too, pretty numb to it at this point.
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I was feeling a little hopeful about today when it started mixing with snow by 10 am but now I'm seeing it's complete junk, on and off light rain/snow mix. Precip rates are putrid.
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Agree the cmc is out to lunch imo, the nam probably is too.
