Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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NAM likely overdone as RGEM looks unimpressive. Based on this winter I know which model I’d bet on. I guess we’ll see outside our windows tomorrow.
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18z RGEM has some snow north of the city on Tuesday.
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So when the models show snow its just a long range run but when they don’t it’s close to a lock? I actually usually agree with you about no snow but I don’t think we can just write off the next 10 days yet.
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I'm talking about next weekend, so many different waves. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023021912&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
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The Euro is a glancing blow for the city/LI with some light snow.
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There is an interior NE and NW burbs subforum (even that though varies significantly because the climate of Bergen County/Southern Westchester is drastically different than Sullivan/Ulster counties). In terms of the urban heating it is a factor, ocean is as well but often times in marginal events LI (especially north shore) and even the NJ coast get more accumulation than the city.
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12Z Euro has a little snow just NW of the city on Tuesday.
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CMC has a little light snow next Sat still.
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CMC came south with frozen precip on 2/23, looks similar to GFS now. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023021912&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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NYC Metro is the worst because of Urban Heating (aka March 2018) for any kind of marginal event. But yes you are right the timing and temps are critical. If it's 3/20 and it's in the 20s at night the sun angle is a non factor, or even in the daytime if it's below freezing the sun angle doesn't matter as much.
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It's one cycle. Also I'm not sure I'd agree with poorly, having the 2/25 event basically squashed south and weak right now might not be such a bad thing.
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The models now show another storm on 2/27, at least it's active. The pattern seems to favor New England but it doesn't look as hopeless as the last few months.
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Storm on 2/23- GFS icy for most northern suburbs even near NYC, CMC keeps the frozen precip to only far NW parts of the subforum but did trend a little south from 12Z. Storm on 2/25- GFS a light all snow event, CMC a miss to the south
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The 0Z RGEM trended colder but disorganized for Tuesday, seems like a minor event even if there is some wet snow for northern areas. NVM I wasn't looking at the main event, it's rain for everyone in this subforum on both RGEM and CMC.
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As usual I'd say play close attention to RGEM, it usually does best with precip type in these type of scenarios with a slight warm skew.
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Probably not but anything can happen, just takes one big storm. However the odds of a >10 inch event in the mid atlantic decrease significantly by March.
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Just noticed this storm is dumping about 15 inches on DC Verbatim
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2/25 looks good especially interior on 18Z GFS but I do think its a good sign for the coast how far south the snow extends. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023021818&fh=186&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Looks like maybe light snow Tuesday there (although it's just the long range NAM). The storm on 2/23 also starting to look potentially icing in the I84 corridor.
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I mean in this winter I would take 5 inches and run with it.
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It moves north and gives some snow to us on the next frame but agree with Snowman19 on this that this will likely change anyway.
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Growing confidence in chance of >1 inch snow on 2/25 due to initial airmass in place. However looks like good chance it's followed by rain.
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Yes this winter you just predict no snow and anyone would be right, it's been the easiest winter to forecast in a long time.
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The 12Z Euro and 12Z CMC showed it too. Obviously I don't take models this far out too seriously but it's not like it's impossible it can ever snow.
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18Z GFS has snow for the next Sat, at least the models are consistent........
