Jump to content

Stormchaserchuck1

NO ACCESS TO PR/OT
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,302

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    15-day GFS ensembles are going all out -PNA though, which may put a ridge over the SE, US in time for a part of peak season. If a ridge sets up over the NE/SE Canada, that makes Gulf and SE landfalls more likely.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ben Noll is the top contributor in this thread. It does help to know ENSO mechanics, instead of relying solely on analog-climo for facts. I can't wait to see the string of posts about a +4 Dec and -2 Feb (I have a colder Dec signal). The mechanics of ENSO should work more evenly all winter..
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here you go guys https://ibb.co/gSN5F7W Let's hope this continues into Winter. The 15-day GFS ensemble does show a -PNA, which makes the medium/long term closer to neutral, backing my ~0.4c El Nino subsurface index.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since 2013, we have had +NAO Winter's almost every year. Since 2016, we have had -PNA almost every Winter. Fix these indexes, and it will be cold enough to snow.. Our "swimming upstream" will come from -PNA, if the ENSO subsurface doesn't stay warm. legit El Nino/-QBO should break the pattern.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would argue that "bad El Nino's" were not actually an El Nino pattern..
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I like that the MEI agrees with subsurface about how weak the Nino really is right now.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, see how this warming is correlating to +PNA too in 3-11 days! https://ibb.co/0cVDN9G This, I really strongly believe is the key to the Winter (how the subsurface does).
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    It would be weird if the LR seasonal models miss it this much.. Jan contract of Natural Gas is trading at 3.9, which is closer to average.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it's hopeful that our trough/ridges lately (Winter) are connected to ENSO. We don't want to see the El Nino weaken, especially in the subsurface..
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    That has happened in the past, but usually a GOA low, or low pressure where the NPH (North Pacific High) is, correlates to a downstream trough over the east coast. 97-98 and 72-73 both had subsurface negative anomalies, and I can prove that "bad El Nino's" were just -PNA patterns, because of La Nina-like subsurfaces..
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    This Aleutian low is from El Nino. https://ibb.co/0BJfyXS How would you guys like to see that Pac pattern in the Winter?
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nino 4 is +1.1, Nino 3.4 is +1.3..
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice +PNA digging in. Seems to be El Nino related.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ravens have less than 1:20 Super bowl odds. Good bet? I think their RB's are underrated.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really nice +PNA coming up, with ENSO subsurface warming. If we can stay very warm below Nino 3.4, the Winter should be full of +PNA troughs. If the ENSO subsurface goes toward neutral/negative, we hit something less +PNA-like.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, I see on the ensemble mean a +PNA trough captures it. Pattern seems to be supported by the Pacific.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm surprised no one talking about Franklin. A lot of 12z GFS ensembles have it close to hitting the coast.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Major hurricane when it's near the Mid-Atlantic/New England is very interesting, especially considering where it already is. Some 12z GFS ensembles have a 500mb low pulling it toward the coast.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    More west-based El Nino forcing here (+PNA) https://ibb.co/mTn9ndp coinciding with central-subsurface warming
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have a signal for +PNA early to mid December.. Dec could be a good month. People overuse ENSO climo, Dec=warm and after Jan 15th, cold.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    lol Let's apparently root for a -2.5 La Nina, because Super El Nino's are so bad. I think in time the analog maps are more linear. Rooting for snow, I would always take a stronger, stronger El Nino.. A lot of Mets kind of make stuff up lol
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah it was a weird July with AZ-NM, FL, and ME having warmest July on record, 3 separated areas. But the mean trough in an El Nino, the stronger the more so, in the East, is the correlation. (Make that happen 14/20 times, and in a sample of say 6, it may coincidentally happen 2/6 times. Small dataset.)
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    -2.0 -2.5 ONI's have strong correlation to absolutely horrible Pacific pattern. Why wouldn't Super El Nino's be the opposite of that, expand the dataset a bit. Also, in the subsurface the eastern-base may be loosing its ground with subsurface now only +3c, vs +7c several weeks ago. The subsurface warm pool has also started to rebuild in the western region. It may end up being a healthy Moderate-Strong Nino 3.4 event.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think the small sample set of Strong El Nino's has gotten a little bit carried away. Strong Nina's are a strong signal for -PNA and +EPO. negative subsurface, that's what I would worry about.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Why not? Would you expect a cold winter with ONI near -2.0? I think it can be easily proven that Strong El Nino's that had a bad pattern, were from times with more La Nina-like forcing (nothing is perfect).
×
×
  • Create New...