Stormchaserchuck1

I think it's hopeful that our trough/ridges lately (Winter) are connected to ENSO. We don't want to see the El Nino weaken, especially in the subsurface..

That has happened in the past, but usually a GOA low, or low pressure where the NPH (North Pacific High) is, correlates to a downstream trough over the east coast. 97-98 and 72-73 both had subsurface negative anomalies, and I can prove that "bad El Nino's" were just -PNA patterns, because of La Nina-like subsurfaces..

This Aleutian low is from El Nino. https://ibb.co/0BJfyXS How would you guys like to see that Pac pattern in the Winter?

Nino 4 is +1.1, Nino 3.4 is +1.3..

Nice +PNA digging in. Seems to be El Nino related.

Ravens have less than 1:20 Super bowl odds. Good bet? I think their RB's are underrated.

Really nice +PNA coming up, with ENSO subsurface warming. If we can stay very warm below Nino 3.4, the Winter should be full of +PNA troughs. If the ENSO subsurface goes toward neutral/negative, we hit something less +PNA-like.

Yeah, I see on the ensemble mean a +PNA trough captures it. Pattern seems to be supported by the Pacific.

I'm surprised no one talking about Franklin. A lot of 12z GFS ensembles have it close to hitting the coast.

Major hurricane when it's near the Mid-Atlantic/New England is very interesting, especially considering where it already is. Some 12z GFS ensembles have a 500mb low pulling it toward the coast.

More west-based El Nino forcing here (+PNA) https://ibb.co/mTn9ndp coinciding with central-subsurface warming

I have a signal for +PNA early to mid December.. Dec could be a good month. People overuse ENSO climo, Dec=warm and after Jan 15th, cold.

lol Let's apparently root for a -2.5 La Nina, because Super El Nino's are so bad. I think in time the analog maps are more linear. Rooting for snow, I would always take a stronger, stronger El Nino.. A lot of Mets kind of make stuff up lol

Yeah it was a weird July with AZ-NM, FL, and ME having warmest July on record, 3 separated areas. But the mean trough in an El Nino, the stronger the more so, in the East, is the correlation. (Make that happen 14/20 times, and in a sample of say 6, it may coincidentally happen 2/6 times. Small dataset.)

-2.0 -2.5 ONI's have strong correlation to absolutely horrible Pacific pattern. Why wouldn't Super El Nino's be the opposite of that, expand the dataset a bit. Also, in the subsurface the eastern-base may be loosing its ground with subsurface now only +3c, vs +7c several weeks ago. The subsurface warm pool has also started to rebuild in the western region. It may end up being a healthy Moderate-Strong Nino 3.4 event.

I think the small sample set of Strong El Nino's has gotten a little bit carried away. Strong Nina's are a strong signal for -PNA and +EPO. negative subsurface, that's what I would worry about.

Why not? Would you expect a cold winter with ONI near -2.0? I think it can be easily proven that Strong El Nino's that had a bad pattern, were from times with more La Nina-like forcing (nothing is perfect).

Natural Gas trading back at 2.5, which implies a warmer Winter. The correlation is pretty strong. It had gone up to 3.0, but then a warmer August dropped it lower I guess. I have a +PNA signal for early-mid December, but that is before most of the average snowfall occurs for I-95.

There is a strong correlation between El Nino/-QBO = +10mb, and La Nina/+QBO = -10mb, It's a 70% correlation since 1948. We are going solidly El Nino and solidly -QBO, so we'll see if the correlation holds this Winter. The main impact to +10mb is -AO at +15 to +45 days, depending when in the Winter it happens, and -10mb correlates to +AO at 0 days all Winter.

Why is today so peaceful? Birds flying, beautiful clouds. It's been an "A" summer.

Here's the area https://ibb.co/86Fr69R When the CDC website allowed us to make custom indexes, I made a time series index of that red box area, and found it to be the highest correlation for the 500mb N. Pacific vs all other ENSO measurements (850mb winds, 200mb, sigma levels, OLR, SSTs, etc). It wasn't perfect, but I have seen it hit about 21/27 in the last 3 years, which I posted in past ENSO threads on this board. Definitely missed last Winter, but that was 1 big miss out of like 4 years. It's just something to keep an eye on, you can see for yourself over time. There is a pretty good now-time correlation there, to yes, the PNA.

This looks more -PNA to me than +PNA https://ibb.co/hXjDXBb Both were negative subsurface

As that Arctic low grazes Alaska, I think there is potential that the correlating +EPO ridge could overperform http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html I have seen ridges flex during -NAO's too many times recently.

The two inverse-beats 72-74 and 97-99 were both central-subsurface cold in 72-73 and 97-98, so you can make a case for the central subsurface also evening-out to not go so extreme. Central-Subsurface last Winter was positive, so using that method a subsurface Super Nino is needed this Winter to do #1.

I'm telling you, it's warming up quickly this morning under clear skies. If a line/storms get going, there is a signal that they could maintain. Question is how far west. https://ibb.co/tYFJkfQ https://ibb.co/GpSKhDt