Stormchaserchuck1

Could be a big Hurricane season if we go into a La Nina.

We might not have 7" for the year by then

17/18 El Nino's had a -SOI in January.. this one has a +3 to +5 SOI. Just putting that out there.. https://ibb.co/YT6YjLz (SOI +1 month is stronger than Nino 3.4 +1, in the south).

This is a pretty insane amount of moisture to work with though if it does get cold. https://ibb.co/553zQrQ

Yes, but they also had January as cold. I think we are +2-4 above average for the month.

They've been showing this since September.

Wouldn't it be weird though for this pattern to just show up for 1-month all of a sudden?

384hr now really starts building an Aleutian low.. -200dm on the mean. -NAO also trying to get organized, but let's see if it holds going into the next few days.

+17-20 days after Dulles all time January daily high's: https://ibb.co/q1CKGhS

Surprisingly, cold in the West is the greatest correlation. We have a +3-4std +NAO now as the main contributor. https://ibb.co/j9NT9k4

~Jan 27th is the coldest day of the year too.

It's going to get close to 80 in DC today! Let's see how models handle the current conditions, they have been showing big cold/good storm setups at 384hr, but it's been on the last 384hr panel for about 3-4 days now. 6z GFS ensemble mean has that really good -NAO/+PNA building at 384hr too: https://ibb.co/WWj2GBP It's a loading pattern on the map, so if those two areas go stronger beyond, then that's a really great setup in a year where the N. Hemisphere has been so wet, with a wet STJ. Sometimes when the initial day is so warm, LR models will back off the strong cold though. Let's see what happens, especially at 18z - 6z tomorrow.

Before 12pm!

Best storm ever.. we were projected to get flurries that morning, then the radar showed precip moving inland from the ocean.. and it just kept going and going and going. I said to everyone, "there is no way that could miss us" but the local forecasts weren't updating. 20" here that day.

Not when the last time we saw it at all, was 15-16. that means it has happened 0 times recently, going back to then, basically opposite of your point. I hit the first snowstorm, and didn't think the 2nd one was going to trend better. I should have done better with the 2nd storm since it was in a ripe spot of rising-out-of strong -NAO. 1/2, but I hit the first threat and said it would be rain when models had a lot of snow so technically 2/3 this Winter. The correlations aren't perfect, but we also have the greatest anomaly for a consecutive month of a 6-year period on record over the N. Pacific '18-23 (-PNA) so I am really curious to see if we shatter that streak this year like basically all the LR models are currently saying.. Why not though we have an El Nino going for us this year. I just don't think those weeklies are as good as PSU is implying, is the only point I was making. 18z GFS ensembles LR also somewhat backed off that awesome look they were showing at 12z.

I particularly like that EPO region which is stronger on the mean than your analogs.. my point is they are showing a -120dm +PNA vs +70dm -NAO which is weighted more toward a Pacific-dominant pattern, vs Atlantic mostly dominant in your analogs. The look is sweet though, I'm skeptical that it can come out that good as that, because of consistency, and the El Nino is weakening with cold water encroaching the subsurface, and the SOI recently going positive (17/18 El Nino's had a negative SOI right now)... but the interesting thing is, since the El Nino started waning, the +PNA correlation started happening, so I don't know.. maybe it continues to happen now unlike earlier.

You have the -NAO/-EPO/+PNA right, but the strength of those anomalies does not match your analogs. Look at the NAO region, Euro weeklies has a +70dm anomaly, and 2010 was +250dm and 1958 +150dm, kind of a big difference. The PNA and EPO regions are similar though.. I would love that Pacific, but in reality we haven't seen that kind of pattern sustain over a 1-month period for a long time now (since 15-16).

I know that since I moved north of Baltimore, it has snowed 12/22 April's here. I don't think March patterns have been great.. and I would bet against a cold March this year with negative anomalies building in the ENSO subsurface, but the +pna really picked up this Winter when we went negative in the subsurface (counter-intuitive) so we'll see how it evolves.

This looks really good... This is my "perfect pattern" for cold, with a +PNA. All 3 features are there, I like the way it's building a High pressure in the southern NAO region on the ensemble mean. Let's see if it holds going forward. https://ibb.co/vxr6JJq That northern AK +anomaly really correlates with cold at like 0.5, and doesn't depress precip.

Pretty nice pattern loading up on the 384hr 18z GFS ensemble mean. This is the first panel where a High pressure settles over NAO region, and the Pacific looks great https://ibb.co/Gcj8Fpk

Too bad it's not colder

384hr looks good on the 18z GFS ensemble mean, +PNA trying to develop. We just have to get past our 2 waves of +EPO here in the next 9 days.

mmm.. looks like the EPO and NAO are both + there. I bet as you trend closer to the event, it becomes more index-related

I would say so. We had 2 Stratosphere warming events, 1st one occurred Dec 25- Jan 9. A 2nd one occurred Jan 13-21. The 12/25 one averages a +25 day lag to -NAO impact, but that can vary as much as +10-15 days. We had a solid -NAO 1-4 to 1-19, so that's +10 days after the first 10mb warming. Under that extreme "downwelled" -NAO we did see 2 waves stay suppressed, giving us snow.

Models do have the 10mb PV going negative. That correlates at +0day with +AO, but this Winter is strong -QBO and El Nino, which verifies 70/30 to 10mb warming, so maybe it won't be too bad longer run.