RU848789

Looks like 21.8" from 10 am measurement is my final total, bringing me to 53.0" for the season; snow has already compacted to about 18" as of 12:00 pm when I checked after my final shoveling. My number looks good given the actual snowfall map below which has most of the 95 corridor and the coast in the 18-24" swath. T The GFS ruled among all of the models up until the event, but especially several days out latching on to the big phased snowy storm solution when almost every other model was showing a weak, progressive out-to-sea solution, and then I thought the HRRR did quite well with real-time projections once the event started. And great forecast by the NWS, sticking to their guns with the high predictions that many of us thought were too high and it mostly worked out.

Looks like 21.8" from 10 am measurement is my final total, bringing me to 53.0" for the season; snow has already compacted to about 18" as of 12:00 pm when I checked after my final shoveling. My number looks good given the actual snowfall map below which has most of the 95 corridor and the coast in the 18-24" swath. T The GFS ruled among all of the models up until the event, but especially several days out latching on to the big phased snowy storm solution when almost every other model was showing a weak, progressive out-to-sea solution, and then I thought the HRRR did quite well with real-time projections once the event started. And great forecast by the NWS, sticking to their guns with the high predictions that many of us thought were too high and it mostly worked out. Fantastic storm - all snow for a change and just gorgeous to look at if a lot of work to shovel, lol. Two pics to share: first one was right after sunrise showing some of the heaviest snow of the event with about 1/8th of a mile visibility and everything just looks like a snowy moonscape (those big lumps in front are where I shovel to), while the 2nd was from driving around town after the storm and it looks like a snowy tree tunnel. And one weird observation - from about 10 am to noon had what looks like decent snowfall rates, via radar, but have had light flurries at most - no idea why. Anyone? Radar showing snow up high and a dry layer below? Time for a shower, some food and some sleep, but not sure in which order, lol. Pleasure tracking/observing this storm with y'all.

As of 10 am, we're up to roughly 21.8", as we got 2" over the last 2 hours with a period in there of near whiteout conditions for about 10-15 minutes. What a storm! Oddly, snowfall has been light the past 10-15 minutes despite the radar looking good (no idea why - supposedly we could get another inch or two, but kind of doubting that). Up to 30F and the winds are now pretty light.

As of 8:00 am, we're up to about 19.8", as we got 3.5" the last 2 hours, which is the best 2-hr snowfall rate of the storm (1.75" per hr). I say about because that's an educated guess at best with so much drifting. Love looking at heavy snow on furniture and trees, so here's a cool pic - that table has about 18" on it but definitely lost some due to the wind. Still 29F and the winds have relaxed a bit, only gusting to about 20-25 mph. Someone else in Metuchen reported 17.7" around 6 am when I had 16.3", so I'm guessing they have about 21" by now. Incredible storm.

As of 5:00 am, when I started shoveling we had 14.5" and at 6:00 am when I was done shoveling we we have 16.3" in Metuchen, so 1.8" the past hour in the heaviest snow of the storm, pic with well less than 1/4 mile visibility is below; these numbers are kind of guesses with all the drifting. Just couldn't stay in the deathband long enough - have had great, consistent 1"+ per hour rates all night, but haven't cracked 2" per hr yet. Not complaining, as I'm ecstatic about 16.2" and very likely making it to 20" (20.2" was my guess), but it would've been cool to see insane rates for an hour. Down to 29F and while not official, we've had a few gusts to 35 mph, but certainly not "frequent" so not quite a blizzard yet.

As of 3:00 am, we have 12.5" in Metuchen, so 1.7" the last 2 hours and that 12.5" is a guess. the area my board was in has drifted over, so I can't use that. In the past when this happens I try to take a bunch of measurements and average them, away from obvious drifts and scoured out areas, but it's tough. In the morning before the snow is over I'll take a ride (or walk, it's close) over to a local field and check there. Down to 29F. Also did my 3rd shovel of the storm - I do that every time we get to about 4" as that's a good number for me to shovel without crazy effort.

As of 1:00 am, we have 10.8" in Metuchen, so 0.8" the last hour as we had mostly moderate snow the past hour, but it started picking up just before 1 am. It's still 30F, but the winds have really picked up in the past hour and we now have some decent drifting - areas with 15" and some with 6-7", so measuring is getting harder.

As of midnight, we have 10.0" in Metuchen, so "only" 1.0" the last hour as we had heavy snow the first 15-20 minutes of the hour, but it has let up some since. While we haven't had the very high rates of 2"+ per hour some have seen, we also haven't seen less than 1" per hour since about 5 pm with a few 1.5" per hour rates. It's still 30F. 18" seems like a lock and 20" seems very attainable; would need to get some high end bands to get to 24" though, I think. It's frikkin amazing out there!

As of 11 pm, we have 9.0" in Metuchen, so 1.5" the last hour with heavy snowfall and it's still 30F. Lee Goldberg shows increased amounts from 95 SE-ward (18-24") and he thinks NYC will hit 20". Amazing to see NYC basically shut down with snow covered streets.'t see the start/end times...

As of 10 pm, we were up to 7.5" in Metuchen, so 1.0" the last hour with moderate to heavy snowfall and it's still 30F; Just did my second shoveling and it was pouring snow during that time and 20 minutes later we had 3/4", which is over 2" per hour if it's sustained. Also, the last few inches of snow will pack somewhat, but it's much drier now - could make a snowball, but not a snowman - should've done that earlier, lol.

As of 9 pm, 6.5" in Metuchen, so 1.25" the last hour and it's down to 30F; snowing close to heavily but radar showed that really heavy looking band to my SE kind of fizzling to "normal" heavy snow. Just shoveled the end of the driveway, since the plows just went by and I hate letting that slushy mess freeze.

As of 8 pm, 5.25" in Metuchen and it's still 31F; snowing close to heavily but radar is showing a couple of SW to NE oriented bands moving NW towards us, which look really heavy, like maybe 2" per hour heavy.

I just noticed that the blizzard warnings from 1 pm from Mt. Holly backed off the snowfall amounts vs. their event total map. It has 13-21" for Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer, and 18-24" for Monmouth/Ocean, but the map always had much of NJ at 18-24" with parts of the coast at 24-30" Not sure how I missed that. They also have a new map up for "expected snowfall" but that is not "event snowfall" as a few inches have fallen and that map starts at 7 pm. That bugs me - they should always have an event snowfall map and if they want to add a "how much more from X time" map fine. Rant over. Back to enjoying the snow.

I just noticed that the blizzard warnings from 1 pm from Mt. Holly backed off the snowfall amounts vs. their event total map. It has 13-21" for Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer, and 18-24" for Monmouth/Ocean, but the map always had most of NJ at 18-24" with the coast at 24-30" Not sure how I missed that. They also have a new map up for "expected snowfall" but that is not "event snowfall" as a few inches have fallen and that map starts at 7 pm. That bugs me - they should always have an event snowfall map and if they want to add a "how much more from X time" map fine. Rant over. Back to enjoying the snow.

As of 7 pm, we have 4.0" of snow, so 1.5" last hour as it's been snowing close to heavily (not crazy heavy, but visibility maybe 3/8 of a mile. Temp still 31F. Just finished my first shoveling and it wasn't too bad - bottom snow layer was wet but snow falling now is somewhat drier, but still packs.

As of 6 pm, we have 2.5" of snow, so another 1" last hour it's snowing at moderate+ whatever that is. Temp still 31F. Very pretty snow coating everything including the trees since the first inch or so was pretty wet and it stuck, despite ~15 mph winds with gusts to 20-25 mph now.

As of 5 pm, we have 1.5" of new snow, so 1" the last hour and we're still at 31F. All roads now covered, as expected.

Yep, 2-parter...here's a short excerpt of my write-up on it (I have a way longer version, lol). Wow, what a freakin' snowstorm. Ended around 3 am here and our final tally was 5.5" for part 1 and 12.0" for part 2, for a grand total of 17.5" for the event. Puts it in the top 10 for the last 50 years in this area. Sounds like there was a general overall 12-20" in the Philly to NYC region, which is quite an overperformance vs. the forecast.

Folks - don't forget to go outside and enjoy this gift, as it's simply gorgeous out there now and about to go nuclear. If you need an excuse to get outside, do a measurement every hour and report back. Also, if you end up with several inches less than the NWS and others are predicting, don't whine - remember back to 3-4 days ago when we were worried about a whiff

So, as of 4 pm, we have 1/2" of new snow on the ground and the snow is just starting to accumulate on paved surfaces as temps are now down to 31F, so road conditions will start deteriorating quickly now.

Wow, this is exactly what I've been saying.

SIAP, but Tomer Burg just published his final call and he's very bullish on this storm with similar forecast amounts as the NWS as per the Twitter thread below.https://x.com/burgwx/status/2025657853998969116

NBM, which uses a combo of Kuchera and the Cobb method has overall ratios of 12-13 for the NJ coast and 15-17 NW of 95, which is part of the reason why the NBM is showing more snow per QPF than the 10:1 snowfall maps. I can definitely see this, since once we overcome the early melting, the snow crystal growth dynamics in the DGZ should be great for low density/high ratio dendrites, especially after about 7 pm with temps below 32F in the whole column. Only question then becomes how much crystal breakage do we see upon descent through a very windy column. Will be interesting to see. Also, measuring the snow accurately will be tough once we get past 9-10 pm and winds really pick up. Might have to use my technique of going to a huge field near me, which limits the "edge effects" one gets in most house properties with fences, trees, roads, etc. This was the only way I could get decent measurements for big storms with high winds like Jan-96, BDB and Jan-2016.

After a few hours of light rain/snow/mix with temps in the 35-36F range, the temp has dropped to 33F over the last hour or so and the snow intensity picked up then and accumulation just started on grass/cars/colder surfaces; paved surfaces might take another hour or so. If you're thinking of heading out now, you might want to reconsider - even if salted roads are ok for a few more hours, visibility is becoming an issue now. Also, here's our starting point for snowfall, as we still have 1-2" of snow/sleet on our property, which admittedly is on the shady side, but damn, that's about 35 days straight with <1" on the ground and that's going to go for at least another 7 days now. Sweet!

Just changed to light snow here as we dropped from 37F to 35F over the past hour.