SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I despise that winter. It was one of the few where SNE got hammered while places just south got skunked.
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If you only talk about warmth and never acknowledge anything else then you're just a troll Even Forky can see a cold/snowy pattern.
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You know a cold/snowy pattern is coming when snowman isn't reposting random Twitter threads about warm weather
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Noticeable Pacific improvements on days 5-7 on the EPS Results in models bringing in colder changes a couple days earlier and then it stays favorable the rest of the run.
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Pacific improving on ensembles
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That's key and signals this evolution is real. Ignore some of the ops though. They might waver a bit until we get closer to this period. Ensembles show us the way
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Op runs beyond 3 days are worthless. The idea remains the same and I think models will get colder as we approach the blocking period. 2nd half of December will be snowy and feature one or two big snowstorms
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Being further south I am selfishly hoping the NAO is on the stronger side though even that isn't always good.
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Cold/dry is the worst combo.
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Models are keen on the change beginning Dec 7/8 but snow chances won't be immediate. Could we avoid the Grinch storm this year? Signs point to yes
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If you're mad at the pattern going forward then you're just a troll or a warminista. But believe it or not most people would rather see warm & dry all winter so today's LR ensembles would be hellish for them.
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PNA will struggle to go positive in this pattern. I don't see suppression issues
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Nothing worse than seeing great potential and getting nothing for it. At least in a horrible pattern you already know what to expect.
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I'm sure you wouldn't want a 09-10 style block either. Probably why New England prefers a modestly negative NAO
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Blocking patterns are actually one of the easiest to forecast for models because they're so stable. Once models lock on they don't waver much Storms become easy to pin down as well shortly after. That's how you get weeks of snowy weather and strong consensus
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Also a big block like that could be around for a while. This isn't a transitory NAO block
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Impressive that the ensembles nailed the blocking though. However it takes time for the right pieces to fall into place. Too many try to rush the pattern change.
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This is the best December pattern I've seen in years. Things will get fun starting 2nd week of December when climo gets really good for everyone. Don't obsess about every run though. Enjoy the current pleasant weather instead
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It took until the end of 2010 before we reaped the benefits of the pattern and then it was smooth sailing for the next month or so. That's a sick -NAO block. One of these days the record warm waters will line up with a major block and produce a 3'+ snowstorm in the northeast.
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Except there's a fairly noticeable SE ridge. Even the strong -NAO can't hold it down completely. This is a great December pattern if it verifies like that but I'm weary this far out. A lot can go wrong
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That block is straight outta the Dec 2010 playbook
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That block looks pretty crazy already and on ensemble runs no less
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Stormy look
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Nice recent ensemble runs. They're really hitting the Arctic blocking strong. Looks like this week's cutter may initiate a wave break that forces a -NAO/AO. Still a little too east-based for my liking but not bad. Looks good for SNE & north though.
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It's a pattern that could break in any direction. Amount of SE ridging will be key here. We need to root for 2010 style blocking to overcome the ridging which is a tall order. This -PNA/NAO/AO pattern would work better in January with colder climo
