SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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You need a good pacific in December to benefit. Current signs point to better conditions by mid month however we need to see this hold into the medium term range. Pacific particularly PNA is less important Jan-March.
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That clown JB always uses this model
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Odds are things trend better than worse given teleconnections. Even the MJO is moving in a better direction although its impacts are pretty nil right now. I would keep an eye out for the 9th. Watch to see if the high to the north trends stronger and pushes more cold air south
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Nah that's nonsense
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We've had a lot more luck in January than December and it looks like that will be the case again. January may actually turn out really well if the blocking sticks around and we don't have to rely on the Pacific as much
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The wavering from the GFS has been ridiculous. I don't know what they're doing
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Pacific becomes a little more favorable and everything trends a lot better. That'll be key over next 10 days
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Euro looks so much better with the blocking than GFS.
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Maybe time to close the blinds then til mid December Strong Atlantic blocking with a bad pacific isn't good though. That causes SE ridge & blocking up north to link up. Don't like seeing the GEFS keep delaying the favorable pattern.
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I guess that's a possibility then.
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Rare -NAO/AO with above average temps. That's definitely a result of agw warming up sea surface temperatures It doesn't help that you have a crappy pacific which is far more important than a -NAO.
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Given the longevity of this block that's probably the option to go with.
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Looks like this will get kind of wacky initially under the blocking pattern until it stabilizes. GEFS/EPS/GEPS eventually get onboard with a more typical strong -NAO/AO look. Before that there's this SWFE potential as cold high bleeds in while shortwave ejects. PA gets 6-12" out of it
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If the shitty Pacific pattern plays out then it'll be a delayed not denied situation. Even the GEFS eventually comes around though its been very disappointing seeing things play out. GEPS looked better At some point you have to wonder if the very warm ssts off the east coast enhanced the SE ridging
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It's the Pacific that's giving the models problems. Arctic blocking hasn't changed that much on the models but the Pacific is all over the place. Hopefully that gets resolved soon
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Those solutions would shock a lot of mets and climatologists. I guess you could make the argument that the GFS/GEFS is more of a north Atlantic block vs Greenland block but it would be nothing good. If the GFS op verifies we would be setting warm temperature records in the first half of December It could also be case of delayed not denied
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GFS ensembles too. Block so strong it forces PV west and then hooks up with SE ridge This would be a first. A very negative AO/NAO with positive to very positive temperature anomalies
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I'm honestly shocked what models are showing. I've never seen a blocking pattern like that. This is insane
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Models struggle to figure out the Pacific beyond a few days. The day to day changes on the models are drastic. I predict they'll shift back to favorable in the next day or two
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Yesterday it was guns blazing and today panic There's no reason to panic
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It's all trash after day 4 because they assume the trough dumps west and the PV shifts NW allowing SE ridge & developing block to connect Notable PNA rise over next 3 days following MJO passage into 8 will stop that from happening. Just you wait
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Garbage runs By tomorrow they'll look completely different
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GFS/GEFS after day 4 is laughably bad and inaccurate
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It will trend colder just you wait. Btw ignore the nonsense of the SE ridge and block linking up. Models do this because they dump the trough out west after day 4 however you can clearly see a trend of models building a ridge in the Rockies before that. The Rockies ridge trend will continue and press the Hudson PV further S&E. I think everything after Day 4 is garbage on this suite, ops & ensembles
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Anything the ops and ensembles show after day 4 is nonsense They are trying to link up the SE ridge with the developing block because they dump the trough out west after day 4. However the ensemble trend has been to shift the western low further west and develop a ridge in the Rockies in the day 3-4 timeframe. That trend will continue which will force the PV to move further S&E, not NW like models show.
