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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Nice drive through the snow squall. Was coming down pretty good. Temps dropped from 40 to 34
  2. SnoSki14
    First flurries of the season in Somerset
  3. SnoSki14
    Blocking is too weak and doesn't hold 50/50 in place Models are flip flopping a lot though
  4. SnoSki14
    LR looked pretty crappy again Arctic blocking too weak and pacific ridging breaks down.
  5. SnoSki14
    Agreed. By March you're quickly heading into spring/summer or at least it feels that way. Though more often than not the weather frequently reminds you it's still March.
  6. SnoSki14
    I didn't quite get that with that post. Usually the warm weather posts are much more overt. This one did mention the east coast trough at least and subsequent storm signal
  7. SnoSki14
    There's definitely a signal for something but tracking it well over a week out is a little silly.
  8. SnoSki14
    I think the T-Day system will be a tall order right now however Euro cutter causes a wave break that might help big time in early December.
  9. SnoSki14
    8 out of 10 times these things don't work out but odds are a little better this time. The Arctic blocking looks real. GEFS also agrees
  10. SnoSki14
    Well we may have blocking in December this year which should help as long as the Pacific isn't a complete dumpster fire like last year MJO going to 7 to end November and then slow down but there are some hints it could go to 8.
  11. SnoSki14
    I'm not getting my hopes up until this Nina crap finally goes away. Consider any snow a blessing
  12. SnoSki14
    First 20s shortly, already down to 30F
  13. SnoSki14
    Ensembles looking pretty decent for December. Notice -AO trending stronger everyday Could be a few mild days in there too. Agree with snowman that snowy pattern will have to wait until AO blocking materializes.
  14. SnoSki14
    Very favorable MJO progression from November to December No wonder arctic blocking is showing up on ensembles
  15. SnoSki14
    Likely happens for most tonight and definitely by the weekend for most urban/coastal regions
  16. SnoSki14
    Record -EPO favors cold/dry most likely but the brunt of the cold is to our west and some SE ridging will keep a gradient so some storminess wouldn't surprise me
  17. SnoSki14
    With high amplitude MJO expected to traverse phases 7-8 to start December and AO going negative odds are better than normal for a cold/snowy December Nina climo is also generally favorable for Dec as well.
  18. SnoSki14
    Pretty sure it is the warmest 1st two weeks of November or in the top 3 at least. Going from a +12 to +15 anomaly from November 1-12 to a -5 to -10 will be a major shock to many
  19. SnoSki14
    Hard pass. These anomalies are ridiculous. It's like +15 right now. AC was running this morning because it was like 72/68
  20. SnoSki14
    December 2015 style warmth
  21. SnoSki14
    Think there's some warmup end of November or early December before next chill down. Looks like a high amplitude MJO passage into 7 which should ignite Atlantic blocking
  22. SnoSki14
    This is so much better than NOAA just using standard ENSO climo for their forecasts.
  23. SnoSki14
    GFS with an interesting system on the 18th. Interior snows wouldn't surprise me. Also with record -EPO and Greenland blocking trending stronger I wouldn't be surprised to see the low end up further south.
  24. SnoSki14
    It doesn't look that different. Yeah the anomalies are stronger but that's common as we get closer to the forecast date.
  25. SnoSki14
    That's still a cold look though. Anomalies are way below normal
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