Lightning
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Everything posted by Lightning
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DTX night crew punts the warnings to the day crew.
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Looking forward to some fresh snow skiing!!
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- snowmobiles
- skiing
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There is a big difference with how they handle the Vort around the 4 corners area.
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Except back then the storm would be hitting Duluth by the 6z run
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Bingo. Ah Marion it explains why we sometimes have different results in the same county.
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I am in the northeast corner of Livingston county in the hills!!
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That run would be perfect for us!!
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Yep. Hopefully we continue this with a bit of northward trend ... especially the 2nd wave.
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Nearly identical with the first round just a bit more moisture.
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I am a bit surprised based on the GFS today/trends but he is big on the EURO and his map pretty much matches the EURO. WDM is our most fun AFDs to read in MI.
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Yeah. When we were seeing the north trend to early I was concerned also about the ice. I have noticed the models have improved enough that those major shifts are a bit more rare.
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I agree the south trend does need to stop on the GFS!! My thought is we may not see much of a north trend until the southern stream VORT gets better sampling tomorrow. The stronger the better but weaker and well you know.
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I have been watching that too.
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Understood as I know you are in it for the Historic. Jonger is all about the sledding. Josh and I just want it to snow.
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4" and will be bummed too but I rather get that and keep it white out there since we are going to warm up tomorrow. Honestly my hopes are in the 6-8" range or more of course. I definitely want the 20"+ but trying to keep realistic.
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Wonder if the south trend has to do with the initial Vort over the NW being well sampled last night into today while the southern Vort will not be as well sampled until tomorrow afternoon. Still can go either way but makes me wonder if the GFS changes are related.
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It is leaving a lot of VORT in the 4 corners.
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That is the problem. Watching model run after model run have 16-24" IMBY then get 12" is not as gratifying as model runs showing 4-8" then getting 12". Same results but for some reason scenario #2 is so much better
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My area has also had many 6"+ storms. There is something different about Howell area. While I am in the same county the Howell area is impacted by storms differently (i.e. Jonger).
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I totally get it. Many storms in the past few years have not had that NW trend and been more suppressed in this area. Your reservation is not without cause.
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Keep in mind that 2 days before the Boston storm. GFS was fish food only (out to sea). So I am not totally surprised by its output.
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DTX radar is down for maintenance. That would be classic to get an EPIC storm when your doing maintenance
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Yes that is a very good summary. I like scenario 3 of course
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Chicago team can name it whatever they want. I only care about the snow results
