Lightning

Agreed ground temps will not warm much because of a few hours above freezing unless it is full sunny day. Trees do however (maple syrup experience) warm relatively quickly so they will take at least a little extra time to get icy (not like I am talking hours). In these situations (warm => cold ice storms) I find it a lot to do with how quickly temps drop. Ice accretion with temps in 30-31 range is definitely hampered by the heavier rate. Once you get 28 or below then I find ice accretion and rates go hand in hand.

Yesterday was so so up this way as I got like an inch (it was divided up in 2 half inch events). Mostly pixie dust falling. Just to my north barely anything. Not to far south got a few inches. Win some and lose some.

While a lot can change; I will say I do like the set-up myself.

18z GFS nearly identical ... . Not saying it will happen but funny to see the GFS and Euro nearly identical 180 hour out ...

I wish I could have gone. I know my niece is going there now and sent pictures. Have a great time they will be awesome!

It's funny how averages are made. My sister lives on the other side of the state. 90s were terrible snow years in SE MI but LES on the west side was good. The past several years not the LES has been more or less shut down (occasional great events but exception more than rule). I think it has a lot to do with the patterns/oscillations we have been in. The traditional Alberta clippers just have not occurred in recent years (they have been scarce). You know it will return but when, I honestly thought this was going to be the year but obviously NOT.

This is the time of year I REALLY miss not being in the UP. I like longer winters (of course I do a lot of winter activities ).

Regardless of the outcome at least it is something to track of significance!!

Nov. was dry here too. It is interesting that we basically have the same pattern as last winter. Cool/dry (just colder this year). I will be honest last summer was one of the best thunderstorm summers I had in a couple years. I would not mind repeating.

No joke. Nov. was the off switch for precip in the Great Lakes. Sure there has been a handful of systems but they have been few and very far between.

I am expecting (maybe more just hoping) the pattern to start getting stormy again. Since October precip has been shut down.

Sadly my 15 and 17 year old girls are figured it out and that is why the electric snow blower became a Christmas present.

I know what you mean. I now have 2 snow blowers. 2 Stage gas for >5" storms that I had for years. I also have an 40V Battery one I got this year for <5" storms. 3 4AH Batteries does my entire 400'+ driveway!! I really love the battery one (no gas, no vibration, don't need NR headphones and don't smell afterward). But I prefer to use the 2 Stage because it means we just got a big storm!!

I agree as there was a well defined lull and separation between the waves. If the those NAM and RGEM runs that showed non-Stop precip would have happened, then it would be one storm IMO. But it is all a mute point as the NWS is who provides definition which is fine by me. In the end it doesn't matter because there is great snow on the ground

Now that some cold weather!! I have experience near -30F to -40C a couple time. Of course each time I did play with boiling water in a cup/pan and throw it into the air.

What ever is normal with the weather??? I find weather many times is feast or famine. Enjoy the feast while it lasts

Awesome to hear!! Just got back home from Mt. Holly. I was surprised my driveway and cars where covered in snow again from wave 2. 1/4-1/2" fell.

Very light snow at Mt. Holly. How is it further south around DTW?

I do that when there is dense fog that you can't see like 25 feet. Dream it is snowing with 25 feet visibility.

I am actually seeing a few flurries right now . Hopefully you can get a couple inches.

I drive US23 to work a lot (I work at that 96/275/696 area north on the 5). Yes there are times the side of the roads on US23 look like there is hardly any snow and yet you get off the beaten path and it is totally different. I will say Fenton proper area is a bit of a snow hole. I have found just east (Holly) and south (toward Hartland/Highland) actually does better for snow. I am south of Fenton more in the hills. I will say Fenton proper is a T-storm magnet compared to MBY. It is like we swap who does better between summer and winter.

Yeah. I actually think the short term models did good if we would have ignored those Kuchera maps. I am going to stick to 10:1 ratios (except clippers). Oh yeah last February's storm was complete fluff IMBY.

My forecast busted low. I said 6-8" as I didn't trust the short term models. Should finish around 10". . If the ratios would have been closer to Kuchera this would have easily been over 12". Sadly the 2nd wave is to far south to impact MBY tomorrow. Looking forward to the next event

This is one of the big reasons why I moved where I did (plus living on a lake).

Exactly. Plus in MI use 10:1 and not Kuchera ratio. I am ending pleasantly surprised with this storm.