Lightning
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Everything posted by Lightning
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They included Monroe
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It would be great to stay below freezing most of the event. I really hope we get some solid 2"+ rates.
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Yeah the 0Z HRRR is a bit more juicy in MI
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Do you even know where DTX is on that map?
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How does the Brazilian model look??
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My point and click is at 10"
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131
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I like that the pattern is remaining active. Possibilities are the key
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Those are the best busts!!
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Having totally accurate models 3 or even 5 days out would be great; however; a weather board like this would become boring. Part of what make the weather the fun to me is all the unknowns, clown maps, disappointments and triumphs.
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It is soo true with this one!!
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The one thing I like about this storm is the potential for few good hours of 2"/hour rates.
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Looking at the dynamics with this storm I believe heavier rates will be there! Plus heavy wet snows seems to be the norm this winter here.
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Baby steps.
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It is obvious that the excitement of this storm is greatly diminishing in this thread.
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received sleet this morning so this is my 3rd system with sleet in 7 days
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One thing to consider is that the biases of each model used to be known very well by many. In the past 10 or so years the models get updated more frequently and the biases are just not as well known. Just as you begin to learn a model biases nowadays it seems to get updated.
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The track is most important IMO. Precip will typically fall into place.
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If we don't get a few porn runs than it wouldn't be a good model
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Lock it now!!
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Well I would take the RGEM 18Z run with ~8-12" for our area.
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The -NAO is good. Just wish we had a bit of a -AO or really a neutral one.
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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Lightning replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I'll take active as it at least gives a chance at something happening -
Shows you the progression:
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All the models are showing is the storm peaking well prior to MI. This is never a good sign for MBY.
