Lightning

Outside of Morch it has been a while since March has been anything exciting around here. April's have been more fun!!!

Sleet fest here. Ground is getting covered as it is turning a sleety white.

What was weird about 00-01 was there were some local events in parts of Oak & Macomb counties that made it not so bad (as FNT and DTW) the rest of winter along the M59 corridor (still a bit frustrating after such an incredible start).

Sadly this has been the trend with the models (I.e. show historic storms then go down to reality). Your getting an awesome storm but the historic model runs make you feel robbed.

I love the last sentence the best: Unfortunately these three points remain fairly nebulous and really won`t be known until the event actually begins.

April 2003 was an incredible event. The Christmas 2013 was pretty bad here IMBY in NE Livingston County. Some of my neighbors trees still show damage (still recovering major branches). I will say it was very cool as it was my first white and very crystal Christmas!!

Sounds a lot better than just a cold rainy (icy) day.

Surface Temps around here are closer to the warmer HiRes models.

If there was some 1055 high pressure to the NNE of Lake Huron this was crashing into. I would have some hope. Of course then I would dry air issues

Marginal temps + full on city=> makes sense

Very true about QPF and it seems to be worse but there always seems to be a place or two that it is close.

I remember that 1991 storm as I was at MTU (Mich. Tech) during that event ... it was a big miss for the UP. I was also visiting my cousin around the Twin Cities during the Dec 1982 event. That was a major storm with over waste deep snow where we were (reports from were we were staying were over 2') and there were 4'-5' drifts that we made snowforts then connected them all by tunnels. Wisconsin had a major ice storm that took several days to clean up with many closed roads. We left 2 days after the storm to go home (SE Mich) and there were still major traffic issues in parts of MN and WI.

Not sure I would have a tree in my yard left if 12Z RGEM solution was correct. >2-3" of ice.

Technically, meteorological spring start March 1st.

Unless there is some changes in the models in the next 24 hours I think this is going to be mostly a cold rain for us south of 96-69 line. I just don't agree with the colder surface temp solutions.

I would tend to agree with GRR at this point. The ground right now is relatively unfrozen and lake are open water. My point being with marginal temps these unseasonably warm ground temps might be all the difference between cold rain and ice. We'll see.

We need that Josh magnet to start working!!!

If the NAM is right this would be my one of my biggest 32.1F rain storms.

Looking like lots of ice here unless the NAM is right. Going to get some generator gas just in case. This could end up being my largest precip total event since October 2021. I haven't had an event >3/4" precip in 16 months.

Josh snow magnet

While I will take snow being a weenie. These warm days and the lack of winter has left me ready to be done with this winter too!!

Hope you can get a couple inches before it ends!!

Why do you try

Okay I will admit I am kind of done with this winter. Sure I will take it if it snows (can never get enough). Looking at the models today just makes me want the end of this winter and move onto spring. This is how I beginning to feel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jq5MyC0NaY4

Because of the continued drought IMO and previous year late frost damage to a couple of my key maples; I was already planning to give them a break this year. Looks like I made a good choice! You can already see signs of dripping sap around some of my maples.