Lightning

April 2003 was an incredible event. The Christmas 2013 was pretty bad here IMBY in NE Livingston County. Some of my neighbors trees still show damage (still recovering major branches). I will say it was very cool as it was my first white and very crystal Christmas!!

Sounds a lot better than just a cold rainy (icy) day.

Surface Temps around here are closer to the warmer HiRes models.

If there was some 1055 high pressure to the NNE of Lake Huron this was crashing into. I would have some hope. Of course then I would dry air issues

Marginal temps + full on city=> makes sense

Very true about QPF and it seems to be worse but there always seems to be a place or two that it is close.

I remember that 1991 storm as I was at MTU (Mich. Tech) during that event ... it was a big miss for the UP. I was also visiting my cousin around the Twin Cities during the Dec 1982 event. That was a major storm with over waste deep snow where we were (reports from were we were staying were over 2') and there were 4'-5' drifts that we made snowforts then connected them all by tunnels. Wisconsin had a major ice storm that took several days to clean up with many closed roads. We left 2 days after the storm to go home (SE Mich) and there were still major traffic issues in parts of MN and WI.

Not sure I would have a tree in my yard left if 12Z RGEM solution was correct. >2-3" of ice.

Technically, meteorological spring start March 1st.

Unless there is some changes in the models in the next 24 hours I think this is going to be mostly a cold rain for us south of 96-69 line. I just don't agree with the colder surface temp solutions.

I would tend to agree with GRR at this point. The ground right now is relatively unfrozen and lake are open water. My point being with marginal temps these unseasonably warm ground temps might be all the difference between cold rain and ice. We'll see.

We need that Josh magnet to start working!!!

If the NAM is right this would be my one of my biggest 32.1F rain storms.

Looking like lots of ice here unless the NAM is right. Going to get some generator gas just in case. This could end up being my largest precip total event since October 2021. I haven't had an event >3/4" precip in 16 months.

Josh snow magnet

While I will take snow being a weenie. These warm days and the lack of winter has left me ready to be done with this winter too!!

Hope you can get a couple inches before it ends!!

Why do you try

Okay I will admit I am kind of done with this winter. Sure I will take it if it snows (can never get enough). Looking at the models today just makes me want the end of this winter and move onto spring. This is how I beginning to feel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jq5MyC0NaY4

Because of the continued drought IMO and previous year late frost damage to a couple of my key maples; I was already planning to give them a break this year. Looks like I made a good choice! You can already see signs of dripping sap around some of my maples.

Just reading the last couple pages of this thread It tells you all you need to know about this winter

Oh for sure people's memory are stuck thinking every winter in the 70s were continuous cold with hundreds of inches of snow every year. I hear it all the time that it doesn't snow like it used to. When I point out that we just got out of the snowiest decade including 13-14 being the snowiest winter in SE MI history they are awestruck.

I am an avid skier and have a pass on the local hills. The yes they are open but the conditions are not very good (obviously better but still not great conditions in the past week). The snow has been more like sugar / sand (even now many areas are still sugar like on Mt Holly). Yeah people go but it is more of a hangout fun this year with crappy ski conditions. Last year was so much better because we got snow (limited amount but useful) and stayed below freezing most of the winter avoiding the rainy warm-ups. Up to this point, last year was much better all around IMO. Wish we would get a grand finish but the models are not showing anything grand at this time. We'll see...

It is kind of fun to watch these extended maps as they like to putting SE MI into the above precip. Not so much: Around my area (about the center of the brown) we have not seen an above normal precip month since Oct 2021. Hope it is right but I have my doubts!!

Or maybe a V for Void