Lightning

I am actually seeing a few flurries right now . Hopefully you can get a couple inches.

I drive US23 to work a lot (I work at that 96/275/696 area north on the 5). Yes there are times the side of the roads on US23 look like there is hardly any snow and yet you get off the beaten path and it is totally different. I will say Fenton proper area is a bit of a snow hole. I have found just east (Holly) and south (toward Hartland/Highland) actually does better for snow. I am south of Fenton more in the hills. I will say Fenton proper is a T-storm magnet compared to MBY. It is like we swap who does better between summer and winter.

Yeah. I actually think the short term models did good if we would have ignored those Kuchera maps. I am going to stick to 10:1 ratios (except clippers). Oh yeah last February's storm was complete fluff IMBY.

My forecast busted low. I said 6-8" as I didn't trust the short term models. Should finish around 10". . If the ratios would have been closer to Kuchera this would have easily been over 12". Sadly the 2nd wave is to far south to impact MBY tomorrow. Looking forward to the next event

This is one of the big reasons why I moved where I did (plus living on a lake).

Exactly. Plus in MI use 10:1 and not Kuchera ratio. I am ending pleasantly surprised with this storm.

Kuchera => Chicago Ratio maps and 10:1 => Detroit Ratio

I just went out to measured multiple times. All at 7".

Sadly for you sledders is this pattern has been rotten yet cold. Honestly this has been a spectacular Ski season since Christmas. Thankfully Ski hills have advanced snow makers and daily grooming.

It would be great if we could get better phasing. The 2nd wave tomorrow is leaving so much VORT in the 4 corner area into Texas.

What universe is the purple one on the bottom??

Yep still several hours left. So far this storm is doing exactly what I expected as my call looks solid. Just not what I hoped!! . I was able to keep about 1-2" snow pack (though there were some normal bare spots).

Used to live in Macomb county. I would never want to spend a winter there again.

I was really hoping things would improve as that the heavier band that went over the Chicago land area moved in. It seems to have only filled in the radar while dropping in intensity. Flake size has been meh at best as ratios look to be still 10:1 here.

Post Alert. Feb 2nd 12Z GFS says we can basically repeat this all over starting hour 270. Even has a really good Chicago LES band by hour 312.

Classic timing for DTX.

Not surprised. Radar has looked pretty good from about Lansing to GRR to Benton Harbor

Yeah. It seem the best Jet dynamics are to our west as RCNYILWX discussed on page 2 in this thread. So it appears that wave 1 is better to our west and wave 2 is now well south. I think we get 6-8" but I fully understand your reservations.

Understood. Most of them show that I would have 2" on the ground already but I have about 1". I understand that if ratio game works out I will bust low. I'll take that risk. My experience is the ratio game works a lot better on storms that my temps start in the teens to mid-20s. Warmer rain to snow scenarios have tend to have more issues obtaining great ratios (they can but many don't). My weather station temp right now is 31.9F.

Yeah. Models showed a changeover by 4 am. Actual was was 6 am. Really like my call for 6"-8".

Still pure rain.

Had a couple good storms that started as pouring rain that changed to snow. My favorite was suppose to end as snow but changed early. Had thundersnow. Final amount was 14".

around 4am here ... eternity

I wasn't alive for the 67 storm but I was for 78. EPIC storms for sure. Peoples memory of the storms are also EPIC. There was likely a lot of snow already on the ground in GRR area in January as 77-78 was a big winter overall. Couple things to consider when listening to the stories. 1) Most people are not weather geeks like us so take all details with lots of salt. 2) The news media talked about the Jan 78 blizzard for days. News media over glorifies everything (got to get you to watch) and it totally influences people perceptions.

I would expect it will start 10:1 (once it is snow that is) and end around 18:1 as the cold get more entrenched.