Lightning

around 4am here ... eternity

I wasn't alive for the 67 storm but I was for 78. EPIC storms for sure. Peoples memory of the storms are also EPIC. There was likely a lot of snow already on the ground in GRR area in January as 77-78 was a big winter overall. Couple things to consider when listening to the stories. 1) Most people are not weather geeks like us so take all details with lots of salt. 2) The news media talked about the Jan 78 blizzard for days. News media over glorifies everything (got to get you to watch) and it totally influences people perceptions.

I would expect it will start 10:1 (once it is snow that is) and end around 18:1 as the cold get more entrenched.

Exactly. Wave 1 looks great!! Wave 2 without a NW trend is almost out of the picture for SE MI.

Bingo!! While historic would be wonderful there is a reason they are historic.

My warning ends at 7AM Thursday so they at least are including it in my warning (now we need a north trend ).

It is turning more and more into a spread the wealth type storm as the 2nd wave is more SE of the 1st wave.

Second wave keeps trending south. IMO the 12"+ totals are not likely in this area but 6"+ will paint the DTX area.

Like my call for 6-8" for MBY.

DTX night crew punts the warnings to the day crew.

Looking forward to some fresh snow skiing!!

There is a big difference with how they handle the Vort around the 4 corners area.

Except back then the storm would be hitting Duluth by the 6z run

Bingo. Ah Marion it explains why we sometimes have different results in the same county.

I am in the northeast corner of Livingston county in the hills!!

That run would be perfect for us!!

Yep. Hopefully we continue this with a bit of northward trend ... especially the 2nd wave.

Nearly identical with the first round just a bit more moisture.

I am a bit surprised based on the GFS today/trends but he is big on the EURO and his map pretty much matches the EURO. WDM is our most fun AFDs to read in MI.

Yeah. When we were seeing the north trend to early I was concerned also about the ice. I have noticed the models have improved enough that those major shifts are a bit more rare.

I agree the south trend does need to stop on the GFS!! My thought is we may not see much of a north trend until the southern stream VORT gets better sampling tomorrow. The stronger the better but weaker and well you know.

I have been watching that too.

Understood as I know you are in it for the Historic. Jonger is all about the sledding. Josh and I just want it to snow.

4" and will be bummed too but I rather get that and keep it white out there since we are going to warm up tomorrow. Honestly my hopes are in the 6-8" range or more of course. I definitely want the 20"+ but trying to keep realistic.

Wonder if the south trend has to do with the initial Vort over the NW being well sampled last night into today while the southern Vort will not be as well sampled until tomorrow afternoon. Still can go either way but makes me wonder if the GFS changes are related.