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Hurricane Agnes

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  1. Hurricane Agnes
    Unless you are Jake Elliott, David Akers, or Tom Dempsey! There is an arctic air mass coming in by tomorrow. When there is a SSWE event, you do get some PV lobes that can sometimes ooze down. But of late, it has been the needle thread to get conditions between cold/dry/suppressed and warm/wet/overrunning. I do think some of the problems now with forecasting is that models are not tweaked to deal with the warming and the odd effects that can come out of that in terms of extremes (cold, warm, wind). Temp here has eased up to 43 with dp 40.
  2. Hurricane Agnes
    Finished up with a surprising 1.31" yesterday. The last 2 events have at least made up some of the deficit from October and much of this month. It's currently overcast but clearing, sun trying to peak out behind the clouds and 37, with dp 37.
  3. Hurricane Agnes
    Wow. I eventually hit 50 just before 8 pm and I think a cold front is coming through now. Temp dropped back down to 44 and I still have light - moderate rain with 1.07" in the bucket and dp 44.
  4. Hurricane Agnes
    Stressful one! Didn't expect this heavier rain although the forecasts changed for the low to crawl closer to the coast as it moved up. They did play through that... Now have 0.86" in the bucket IMBY.
  5. Hurricane Agnes
    That Feb. 2021 storm happened with an initial La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral. Same happened in 2018. Right now, we are in a strong El Nino (which was the case in late 2015, and then that transitioned as it moved into 2016). Seems that when the ENSOs are "weak" or in transition, that opens the opportunities for phasing and whatnot.
  6. Hurricane Agnes
    Think I spoke to soon earlier. Temp has been steadily rising since my last post, even with the rain, and my "high" so far today is now 49 (as of post time), which is the current temp. Had a heavier band come through and now have 0.75" in the bucket. Currently moderate rain with dp 48.
  7. Hurricane Agnes
    Got up to 47 for a high just before 1 pm. Now getting some drizzle and light rain and so far have picked up 0.01". Temp is 44 with dp up some more at 42.
  8. Hurricane Agnes
    I dug up the Obs thread for that storm - That was probably the most drama-inducing Miller B this forum has had since I started posting here (16 years ago now)! I had to dig through that thread but eventually found I finished up with 10.34" from that after experiencing every p-type possible including ZR, various IP, and snow over the 4-days it hung around. In the middle of it was 14 hours of a sleet fest. In any case, I ended up with a high of 40 yesterday and bottomed out at 29 this morning. It's currently overcast and 43 with dp rising quite a bit from the low 20s earlier and now at 35.
  9. Hurricane Agnes
    That week of December sometime between Dec. 5 - 10) seems to almost always have some sort of precip event annually, most often wintry, with a few times when it was just rain, and some rare instances of nothing. My Wed. high ended up at 54, with the Thurs./Fri. splits 51/40 & 51/32. Thanksgiving day was notable due to the high overhead resulting in a perfectly blue sky for the parade. This morning was "brutal" in terms of my first "hard freeze" (temp at or below 28F), bottoming out at 26. Anything marginally tender that thought it was still gonna stay green (or crawling) and alive (and not in a protected location), should be toast. It's currently 33 with dp 22. And as a sidenote - I initially thought that it was maybe a "temporary" thing for the holiday but finally did a little search and confirmed that KYW has now done a complete circle and will be using Accuweather again for their weather reports from now on. The past couple days, I was like "Why is this Accuweather guy on?". Well now I know! As another sidenote - the USDA has officially moved all of metro Philly and rim areas a few miles out from the border, into USDA Hardiness Zone 7b. Was previously 7a (where Delco had the 7b at the last update back in 2012 and that remains). So for the gardeners here (and you know who you are ), here is the link to the new map (can zoom by zipcode) - https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/
  10. Hurricane Agnes
    After a month of skimpy rain, the past 2 days have made up for it! Ended up with 1.59" yesterday and an additional 1.35" this morning for a total of 2.94" for the 2-day event so far. It's currently 50 with occasional light rain and dp 49.
  11. Hurricane Agnes
    The Sat. - Mon. splits for highs/lows were 58/34, 54/34, & 45/32. After a low of 34 this morning, I got up to 49 for a high. It took quite a bit to scour out the dry air to get something to hit the ground but it finally did and thankfully not in a gusher either. For the month through until today, there was only 0.07" of rain IMBY. Measurable rain hit here around 1 pm and so far I've picked up 0.90", the most significant 1-day amount since Oct. 14. It's currently 49 with light rain and dp 49.
  12. Hurricane Agnes
    Am still holding with not turning the system on yet. Because of all the dry air, I did get the humidifiers up and running in any case. I know once I put that hot air on, look out. It can get down to 19% without any humidification and any CAA. I ended up with 0.01" of rain here between 1 - 2 am this morning and that makes it 0.07" for the month of November so far. October finished up with only 1.40". Ended up hitting 66 yesterday for a high and had a low of 47 this morning. It's currently a breezy, and sunny 51, with dp 28. Definitely feels "fall like" out there. Still have trees with leaves (mostly maples) but definitely well past peak.
  13. Hurricane Agnes
    I haven't heard him anywhere. I don't actually have a twitter/X account but doing a quick search, it looks like he is active on that - He's also maintaining a website - https://thehurricaneschwartz.com/ Inky says he is now doing consulting at an environmental engineering companny - AKRF. Obs includes an eventual high Monday of 50 and the Tuesday-Wednesday split was 54/34 & 54/31. With the air mass change, it took winds going completely calm overnight for my low this morning of 35, where I made it up to 65 for a high today. It's currently 49 with dp 41. And as a note - still haven't put the heat on although I did pull out the humidifiers and get them going to keep it at a 35% - 40% range in here!
  14. Hurricane Agnes
    I've only had 0.06" for this month and a total of 0.43 since Oct. 21. Had a bunch of non-measurable wet the walk days but it has definitely been dry.
  15. Hurricane Agnes
    One of the garden shows I listen to on Sundays mentioned them too but also noted how they can get into homes (attics) and nest in there to escape the cold, so that can become a source. It's currently sunny with a blue sky, and has warmed up to 48 here with dp 32.
  16. Hurricane Agnes
    The Sat./Sun high/low split was 55/38 & 46/33. But this morning's low took the cake at 29, which was my coldest low since March 12. Figured it would drop as it was relatively clear last evening, although the winds didn't go completely calm. I did hear one of the weekend NBC 10 mets who reports on KYW, mention something about the persistence of the yellowjackets. Hopefully this will do in most of the leftovers (although I expect there are still others out there that will wake up and emerge once it warms up). It's currently sunny and 36 with dp 28.
  17. Hurricane Agnes
    That's like the 'ole PD storms. Usually "something" tends to happen around those times. I ended up hitting 63 for a high yesterday and bottomed out at 46 this morning. The dry air resulted in lots of virga earlier this morning but some precip managed to break through as the dp ticked up out of the upper 30s and into the low-mid 40s. Have so far picked up 0.03" today. Currently overcast and 46 with dp 43. So far my high for the day was a 53 at midnight.
  18. Hurricane Agnes
    Latest CPC ENSO discussion released today - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Calling for El Nino to continue at least through June 2024 with a 55% chance of it being "strong" through March 2024. MJO not really in a favorable phase at the moment. Te NAO has been mostly negative in varying degrees through last month although it seems to be forecast to go more neutral this month.
  19. Hurricane Agnes
    Talk about the ups and downs this week! Highs IMBY from Saturday through to Wednesday have been 57, 66, 59, 65, and 53 respectively. The lows - 36, 39, 39, 51, 39. The low this morning was 41 and I would definitely say it has been unsettled but it has also been dry here. Have only had 0.03" for the month so far and actually finished up October with only 1.40". The sun had finally popped out later this morning and it's currently partly sunny and up to 61 with dp 52. Still haven't put the heat on yet although I had my little portable going a few days for some spot warmth. I had ventured out around the neighborhood and got some gas earlier this week and noticed that probably 1/2 of the maples (mostly younger trees and both Norway and sugar) still have leaves, so haven't had the big 2nd dump yet.
  20. Hurricane Agnes
    Eventually made it up to 48 as a high yesterday and bottomed out a degree warmer this morning than yesterday morning, with a low of 31. This time, the winds went completely calm overnight so that assisted the radiational cooling. The frost was definitely heavy this morning though vs yesterday and it looks like my high was 56 today under blue skies. Currently 55 and sunny with dp 34.
  21. Hurricane Agnes
    I am still surprised that I ended up with a 4-day string of light precip that totaled 0.40" (had a sneaky 0.10" Tues. and 0.03" yesterday morning). The high yesterday never made it to 50 (was 49) after a low of 33 and this morning I bottomed out at 30.0 on the nose. I noticed that the winds never went completely calm here overnight. The dp was in the mid 20s once the CAA blew dry air in. Got the last of my tender subtropicals in but still have the potted fig out there to go dormant and drop its leaves before I bring that in. Am still resisting turning the heat on (have a portable to take the chill off where I am sitting at the moment) because once I do that, I have to get my humidifiers up and running. It's supposed to warm up by the weekend in any case. Currently mostly sunny and 38 with dp 29.
  22. Hurricane Agnes
    Ended up with nickel and dime showers yesterday and this morning, with 0.13" yesterday and 0.07" so far this morning, for a 2-day event total of 0.20" so far. My "low" was 53 just after 2 pm yesterday and confirmed the high for yesterday being just after midnight of 66. This morning's low so far has been 51 and within the past hour or so, I have been socked in with some low stratus, so "something" is on the move. Currently overcast and misty and 56 with dp 55.
  23. Hurricane Agnes
    Something something, Lucy, football. The GFS has been non-stop spinning up storms in the long range, literally doing that all summer and into the fall. My Friday split was 73/54 and yesterday I just touched 80 after a low of 59. My registered low earler this morning was 57 and after a few non-measurable sprinkles that wet the car and walk, my current temp has now dropped below that to 56, where my "high" (so far) was just after midnight at 66. Dewpoint is currently 51 with overcast skies.
  24. Hurricane Agnes
    Whelp - didn't frost here Tuesday morning although I did have a low of 39. Ended up with a high of 65 that day. The Wed. split was 44/72 and today the warming trend continued with a 48 low and much warmer high of 78. As soon as the sun set, the cooling commenced however, and it's currently 63 with dp 56. Will see if any records fall this weekend. And I won't even get into the Phillies. Bad Closers are toxic and I expect that this sentiment probably rippled through the team as there were a couple games that would have been won if runs hadn't been given up in the late innings. Anyway... Go IGGLES. Kelly Green FTW.
  25. Hurricane Agnes
    Since the season has been transitioning, have been getting my potted tropicals/subtropicals/tender perennials ready to bring in (and/or have started bringing them in). My highs have continued to warm with a 65, 67 & 69 respectively from Wed. -> Fri. after respective varying lows of 48, 42, & 54, dependent on how much radiational cooling was achieved. I ended up with 0.04" of rain with the morning round on Friday and with some promising later rain with the solid line, I got one huge NADA (yes the below attached was the look just before heading off to bed and it resulted in Phillies-style strikeouts)! Am hoping the coastal that is forming with backwash over me some. In any case, it's currently a humid 56 with dp 55.
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