Hurricane Agnes

Interesting that the NAM is drier than the GFS.

A couple 6z runs (GFS & NAM 12k). Coast-scrapers.

The 18z EC goes out to 90, enough to get the gist of the coastal. Looks like the wacky (or as the AFD had it "windshield wiper" solutions from run to run) GFS.

NBM has that built-in compromise... But the MA people further south from here look to be iced up real good.

Juiced!

The 18z 12k NAM is just barely in its range. Oddly it seems similar to the 18z GFS (although the GFS won't get off the Miller-B type transfer - maybe its seeing a double-barrel or stacked low or something).

12z Canadian for the heck of it, with the I-95 line...

Pick your poison.

12z hi-res EC -

7z NBM snow...

6z EPS -

Choice of maps...

6z GFS still has a 2-low solution but the 1st low goes shuttling off OTS far south and the other eventually emerges near the Chesapeake Bay. Looks to have a back end thump as it pulls away.

Yeah I had looked at the 850s and 925s but in general, "warmer" means more moisture the air can hold, so you get a juicier storm. And then you have warmish wet ground (wet from the previous storm's couple inches of rain), and it would hard to get some accumulation. I haven't tried looking for any soundings but some forecasts were mentioning sleet and if that happens, that might actually chill the ground enough to produce a frozen bed for snow to pile on top of. I know the year before last, we had piles of sleet.

We have this ocean temps issue going on too. Zoom in -

The models need data from when a PAC system finally comes ashore into California - I think expected within the next 12 hours or so (based on the HPC surface forecast).

Even then, it would be that wet heavy stuff. But I guess beggars can't be choosers.

With it hugging like that and no sign of a PV ooze for antecedent cold air, I can't see how any of these verify. I know that strong systems can self-cool and generate cold air but it seems like it would do that further north near NE.

It tried to do that but then faded it out and created that low over NoVA.

18z GFS ditches all-inland Miller-B type thing and coast hugs (edit - still wants a low to do a jump though).

Throwing the 12z Ukie in for precip.

Meant to check for a (jinx) thread. These were the two 12zs.

well I bottomed out at 31 this morning and am currently under all blue sky with a temp of 41 and dp 28. Comparing 12z GFS with 12z Euro (GFS seems to want to do a Miller B type thing).

Made it up to 44 as a high yesterday after bottoming out at 35. Currently 33 with dp back down into the 20s again and at 26. 6z GFS looks like it wants to do a Miller-B jump... but it's the 6z. (ETA 7z NBM snow totals - looks like a sharp I-95 cutoff).