Hurricane Agnes

Thanks for posting! I was here for 7 of the 10 (missed #6 by a couple weeks because I was 2 weeks late being born according to my mom ). I still laugh with one of my sisters about the '66 blizzard when we had our snowsuits and Yogi Bear snow boots, with shovels ready to dig out the area in front of the garage at our first house. The summer of '66 was a hot one as a note (at least for back then - hit 104 at one point which I think still stands as the 2nd highest ever recorded in Philly to date). My mom was pregnant with my little sister at the time.

18z NAM came a little further north and east than the 12z (closer to the EC & GFS).

I'm waiting for the 12z of that (for today) to run. But here's the 12z CMC (only a tad bit better than the ICON ).

The whole Philly board would be like -->

13z NBM sortof ignores the massive precip. and cuts it all in half. lol

12z hi-res EC looks to be following the northerly trend of the GFS.

12z GFS was slower than the 12z NAM and further north, where the NAM had that southern look with a bulk of precip way west.

6z hi-res EC.

12k NAM is slowly coming into range and the last frame of the run does hint at the same "north and west" trend.

I think it's a foregone conclusion that it is an I-78 / I-80 special. The track and any deathbands that might set up (including with the pivot) will determine how much.

GFS basically looks like what the NBM had. It seems similar to our earlier first "threat" storm 1/15 - 1/16 with the antecedent warm temps and the attempt at a hop, skip, and jump (although missing a 2nd coastal nearby).

13z NBM looks more realistic with that uncertainty about what might or might not happen with that "jump" (and how close to the coast or even inland the low goes).

Jinx!

Ukie is like "The GFS NAM'd you, so 'nope'".

I know I have skunks around here and will go out to the patio and get greeted by their hellish "perfume"! It definitely appears to have ticked north and looks like it wanted to be an apps runner and then does the Miller-B jump.

I had mentioned it here - It happened sometime in November around Thanksgiving.

My Wyndmoor sister had texted yesterday about the foxes on her street whining and screaming all night. Am guessing it must be mating season or something. The 12z GFS is running so will see what happens. I bottomed out at 39 this morning and had noticed it had clouded over overnight. It's currently partly cloudy and 48 with dp way up there at 41.

It looks like it has the cold air coming in after the storm is off the coast though (unless it thinks some cold air will come with a little clipper-like low that precedes the coastal).

I just took a peak at the 12z Euro and 12z GFS for the 2/13 storm and they are like polar opposites (Euro north and GFS a DC metro bonanza). But thing is - the snow from them seem to happen for VD and stays around for the following week or so, and you can't really tell what any additional contribution would have been after VD with a 2nd storm around 2/18 - 2/21. And at least for the GFS range, the storm from the 18th - 21st is a slider, going south of Philly metro.

After a chilly low of 28 this morning, I made it up to 46 for a high. The breeze was more noticeable today so it felt cooler than the high suggested although spots in the sun were "warm". It's currently clear and 43 with dp 28.

That's a Harrisburg, north and west special! Even with us now being pretty much at the "coldest" time of year for water temps (due to the natural lag), the surface temps are still in the mid-upper 40s off the coast. The 0z Euro has that low further south.

Well we didn't quite get there the last time it hit close to 60, let alone 80 down in D.C. (although I think more north could still get flakes)! I think the model "climatology" pieces are unable to handle the changes in climate.

It's been good to see the sun for a somewhat extended period and my obs for highs the past couple days have been mainly mid 40s (45/46/45) with lows in the upper 20s - mid-30s (35/29/30). This morning the radiational cooling and dry air got me much colder, where so far my low has been 27. Currently 27 with dp 15. Looks like a torchy weekend ahead.