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Volcanic Winter

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  1. Volcanic Winter
    Can’t check at the moment, what is it showing?
  2. Volcanic Winter
    I guess it depends on where in TR, I’ve lived here since 2011 now. People definitely commute to the immediate metro or even NYC for work. The area south and west of 37 is a bit different than the northern areas. At least that’s been my perception. It is definitely a border region, so it would make sense that it’s a blend of influences culturally, but that linked map made immediate sense to me.
  3. Volcanic Winter
    I agree with this, doesn't work solely with county lines but Toms River is really not south NJ and is definitely part of the NYC metro. Really the southern extent of CNJ. Once you go south of me though, things are very different - so I actually think this map is pretty much spot on.
  4. Volcanic Winter
    What was different about January 2022 that allowed a KU, highly amplified offshore system to close the month (1/29)? While true that it only scraped NYC - it was inches away from a major storm across the full metro but still gave me and LI well over a foot (or two). I remember it had some bizarre dual low structure and the further east low became the primary, pulling the best snows east away from the metro before going on to clobber parts of NE. I know that was a strong -EPO pattern, but what's different now that it seems so impossible to get a highly amplified coastal like that? IIRC that was when the pattern was breaking down, days before we transitioned to sustained warmth in Feb as is our usual anymore. Asking because I don't know, no insinuations or predictions. Thanks guys.
  5. Volcanic Winter
    This is turning into quite a sad story, with more to come if this thing actually erupts. Dangers of a powerful long dormant volcano waking up. https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/ethiopia/awash/seismic-crisis-2024/updates.html More and more convinced this ends in some type of eruptive event as the daily seismic activity is incredible, outputting mag 4-5 quakes daily. I want to clarify as this linked piece suggests a source claiming the activity may be tectonic in nature (which means essentially not directly from the ascent of eruptable magma), but there was evidence earlier including INSAR data which clearly showed a potential large dike intrusion. There is absolutely no guarantee this does erupt and this source could be correct, regardless it almost doesn't even matter as real harm / damage is being done now just from the seismic activity. Something I'll be watching daily from here on out - volcanoes are fascinating but also incredibly destructive, and can be so even when not actively erupting.
  6. Volcanic Winter
    This is reminding me of that first, early 1/22 storm that plastered ACY for 14 inches while I got nothing but virga in Toms River. I should do better than that here, but the general point I think is the concern about virga on the north end - it seems similar enough to me. Confluence would really have to abate for this thing to come much more north, or it would have to amplify much more basically, yes? I would probably just think a few more minor wiggles at this stage, but I'm much more of a novice with this stuff than you guys. Still fingers crossed a few flakes fly across the metro, at the very least.
  7. Volcanic Winter
    Same, I’m happy with whatever happens. At least it’ll appreciatively feel like winter and not extended fall as usual. Hoping 1/6 jogs a bit more northward, but if not - oh well. We’ll have our chances.
  8. Volcanic Winter
    Happy New Years guys! 2024 was not a great year for me, hoping for much more positive vibes in 2025… and that extends to all of you as well, wish you all the best for the new year.
  9. Volcanic Winter
    I’d still rather be in this position than staring down a shut the blinds torch for the next three weeks. We’ve been there many times the past several years in Dec turning Jan; this is a clear improvement. I know not everyone enjoys the cold without snow with it, but at the very least for those of us who enjoy it - we’re getting at least a bit below normal here with at least some snow opportunities. I mean, I’ll take that for now - no problem.
  10. Volcanic Winter
    I love YouTube so much, I grew up with it… it’s such a great format at times and really lets creators deep dive things. There’s so much good and intelligent content out there, it just gets buried by all the clickbait nonsense that makes you want to vomit… Seriously? THE WORST BLIZZARD I’VE EVER SEEN!! Day After Tomorrow Par Deux, Arctic Boogaloo! 3ft from Atlanta to Bangor! Can I start a petition to send @donsutherland1to this guy’s house? And it’s no better in the geology arena, there’s so many videos like, “Is Yellowstone REALLY about to go off and delete the United States of America? The Secrets Geologists Don’t Want You 2 Know!” FFS
  11. Volcanic Winter
    On the volcanic front an unusual big volcanic system in Africa has been waking up for a couple months now, Fentale. https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/fantale/news/261022/Fantale-volcano-Ethiopia-earthquakes-intensify-increased-risk-of-volcanic-eruption.html It’s been throwing rather large mag 4-5 quakes essentially daily at a depth that suggests a magmatic signature, and this system is capable of both big rhyolite explosions and basaltic fissure eruptions. If the main edifice (which has a large caldera) is the source of a possible eruption, it could be a fairly substantial explosive event. Regardless, this is an unusual volcano and African continental volcanism leans big and powerful, so it’s definitely a system to keep an eye on. https://watchers.news/2024/12/30/strong-earthquakes-near-fentale-volcano-spark-eruption-concerns-ethiopia/
  12. Volcanic Winter
    Hell of a lot better than staring at Baja troughs and an eastern ridge bouncing so hard it's like it's trying to fling Montreal over the top of Greenland and into Europe... This is cool, we're in a decent spot here and have something fun to watch for a change. Way better than I think any of us expected at this time.
  13. Volcanic Winter
    Topped out at 62.3 here at the Toms River / Manchester border. Dec averaging 35.2 right now.
  14. Volcanic Winter
    That October display here really was unbelievable, not something we’ll see topped for a long time if ever. The sky here was vivid pink and purple… It seemed like the sun shut off soon after they declared solar maximum, or at least activity died down quite a bit while we were in Iceland. On top, the sky was cloudy with precipitation for most of our trip - so it wasn’t a great Aurora trip. Thankfully we had tons of snow!
  15. Volcanic Winter
    Reykjavik sits at the east end of a peninsula that often juts into the warmest air mass in the region, but they do absolutely see snow and they got some once we were out in the deeper parts. It's just the timing of the weather system was such that the snow turned on once we drove inland. Only saw a brief aurora this trip, frankly we had precipitation for most of the ten days we were there! Not many chances, but we had SO much snow and I've seen incredible auroras now so many times, it was a fair trade to play in crisp Icelandic snow for most of the trip.
  16. Volcanic Winter
    Iceland in winter is awesome!! https://imgur.com/a/NcMT77O We did four nights in Reykjavik to capture the Xmas vibes then moved out to the country where it became a total winter wonderland. At one point we had like 36 hours of steady light to moderate snowfall without any substantial wind (somewhat rare) - absolutely perfect conditions! About 18-28 degrees out there for most of the trip.
  17. Volcanic Winter
    Back from Iceland guys, was absolutely incredible… had about 36 hours of light - moderate snowfall when we went deeper in away from the coast. Winter wonderland, around 18-28 degrees the whole time. I’ll get some pics up in the banter thread. Also, 6.3 for a low overnight at my house without snowcover - that’s seriously impressive. That beats the most recent cold wave around the holiday a couple years back by two full degrees here. Edit: Link to pics https://imgur.com/a/NcMT77O
  18. Volcanic Winter
    I know this is silly, but I’m absolutely loving this. I had resigned myself for a continuation of what we had in November, and with our tendency to only have a couple day brief cooldown followed by more warmth - this is pretty incredible. Good exposure to the temps we’ll be having in Iceland this time of year in about ten days, especially when we go towards the coastal interior. Right now tracking spots we’ll be staying in going down to 5 degrees - won’t be quite that cold I don’t think when we get there but it’s possible! To kick off December and Christmas season with some real winter weather is just amazing to me and feels like a precious commodity anymore with the regime we’ve been under.
  19. Volcanic Winter
    I just did a double take checking my temps. On the western edge of Toms River, my nighttime lows are always cold in my location and on good radiative cooling nights I’m not far off some spots in north Jersey. But I’m seeing daytime highs in the 30’s to start December, potentially? Wild.
  20. Volcanic Winter
    God I love -EPO.
  21. Volcanic Winter
    I’ll take it
  22. Volcanic Winter
    Cool halo around the moon tonight.
  23. Volcanic Winter
    She’ll do. My yard looks like if I flicked a tree or plant it would crumble to ash and blow away in the wind. I’m near the cutoff to the zone of the worst drought stage in the area. We only got like .15 “ of rain the other day, basically nothing against the kind of deficit we’re running.
  24. Volcanic Winter
    I’d really love to ditch the trough in the west look every time we happen to have a trough here, add that to the southeast ridge as something that’s given me serious weather trauma the past couple years. Really hoping to have a wintry Iceland trip in December, but they’ve been having some incredible warmth trapped under a major ridge. Some of the cams in the north are completely devoid of snow; when we toured the north in Nov 2022 it was like being in arctic tundra (everything I’ve ever wanted lol).
  25. Volcanic Winter
    32 here
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